NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	87		Excitement	3.8 [1022]		MVP	Luc Longley (CHI): +6.3%
Chicago Bulls	100		Comeback	1.0 [1053]		LVP	Alonzo Mourning (MIA): -14.5%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Hardaway	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.10	-0.01	0.05	19	57%	0.04	0	0.00	9	100%	0.04
Jamal Mashburn	0.03	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.07	0.00	0.05	14	63%	0.06	2	-0.03	7	86%	0.01
Dan Majerle	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.03	0.00	0.03	8	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Crotty	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keith Askins	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	12	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ike Austin	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	0.00	0.02	5	40%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Voshon Lenard	-0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.10	-0.01	0.01	9	28%	-0.07	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	-0.15	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.08,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.12	-0.01	0.02	4	65%	-0.03	7	-0.11	12	83%	0.02

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Luc Longley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.01	-0.01	8	70%	0.08	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.01
Steve Kerr	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	-0.00	0.00	3	86%	0.04	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Ron Harper	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.08	-0.00	0.04	9	70%	0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Randy Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.00	3	67%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bison Dele	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	-0.00	7	59%	0.03	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Jason Caffey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Jordan	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.15	0.02	-0.15	31	41%	0.06	4	-0.05	6	83%	-0.00
Scottie Pippen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0	100%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jud Buechler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	5	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Toni Kukoc	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	-0.00	-0.03	10	36%	-0.02	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Dennis Rodman	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	0.00	-0.02	7	56%	0.03	4	-0.07	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.2	2.5	32.5	18.7	26.2	3.3	32.5	145.0
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +35.5%

MIA -9.9%

CHI +16.5%

CHI +8.2%

MIA -0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	CHI	NBA	MIA	CHI	NBA
this game	15.5	19.0	15.6	103.6	120.5	104.4
season	15.8	15.5		103.1	110.5
opponent	16.1	16.3		99.8	98.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.9	14.3	17.0	13.5	15.5
CHI	15.0	18.5	19.0	24.4	19.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
John Crotty	4	5	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.09	3	-16	19	10.2	15.7	-5.48	22.8	18.8	3.99
Keith Askins	3	2	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	0.04	-2	-11	9	20.3	15.3	5.05	20.5	19.0	1.49
Ike Austin	34	34	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.11	-4	-9	5	14.8	15.9	-1.18	21.3	17.5	3.75
Jamal Mashburn	47	46	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	0.00	-9	-4	-5	15.8	15.1	0.73	18.2	20.1	-1.96
Dan Majerle	57	56	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.14	-5	-8	3	14.8	16.8	-1.94	18.6	19.9	-1.25
Alonzo Mourning	64	64	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.16	-5	-8	3	15.9	14.0	1.86	19.6	17.2	2.38
P.J. Brown	44	43	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	0.02	-13	0	-13	16.6	14.2	2.37	17.6	20.6	-3.09
Tim Hardaway	75	73	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	0.02	-17	4	-21	15.8	12.6	3.26	17.7	28.8	-11.09
Voshon Lenard	73	73	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.08	-15	2	-17	15.2	16.9	-1.66	18.9	20.0	-1.08

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luc Longley	59	58	0.52	-0.02	0.54	-0.15	23	-10	33	18.0	21.7	-3.68	17.2	11.6	5.57
Dennis Rodman	58	58	0.44	0.06	0.37	-0.00	15	-2	17	19.6	17.9	1.67	16.0	14.2	1.84
Michael Jordan	72	73	0.42	0.08	0.34	-0.02	15	-2	17	19.7	15.0	4.67	15.6	14.6	0.95
Ron Harper	46	48	0.38	0.12	0.26	-0.09	16	-3	19	17.8	20.6	-2.89	16.3	14.3	1.98
Jud Buechler	36	37	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.06	7	6	1	19.6	18.6	0.99	14.3	16.4	-2.13
Scottie Pippen	12	12	0.20	0.30	-0.10	-0.12	11	2	9	13.7	19.9	-6.19	21.6	14.4	7.14
Toni Kukoc	48	50	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.26	-3	16	-19	19.1	19.0	0.08	14.7	16.6	-1.94
Randy Brown	20	20	0.11	0.39	-0.29	0.08	1	12	-11	17.8	19.4	-1.58	15.2	15.5	-0.28
Steve Kerr	22	21	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.20	-5	18	-23	23.7	17.4	6.30	12.0	16.6	-4.62
Bison Dele	30	32	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	0.29	-10	23	-33	20.4	18.3	2.17	13.9	16.4	-2.57
Jason Caffey	12	11	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	0.10	-5	18	-23	16.6	19.5	-2.88	11.4	16.1	-4.72

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.61,0.62,0.72,0.66,0.7,0.72,0.73,0.76,0.76,0.77,0.81,0.84,0.84,0.77,0.76,0.76,0.81,0.85,0.77,0.77,0.82,0.86,0.81,0.83,0.87,0.89,0.81,0.79,0.85,0.92,0.93,0.91,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.95,0.97,0.96,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 77, MIA 90	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.61,0.6,0.66,0.65,0.65,0.7,0.75,0.78,0.76,0.79,0.75,0.79,0.8,0.82,0.79,0.8,0.79,0.79,0.87,0.84,0.82,0.84,0.78,0.68,0.75,0.85,0.87,0.79,0.82,0.85,0.84,0.91,0.94,0.89,0.94,0.95,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.2%
POR 92, UTA 108	0.5,0.51,0.57,0.57,0.63,0.66,0.7,0.7,0.73,0.74,0.73,0.74,0.73,0.78,0.79,0.78,0.79,0.81,0.87,0.86,0.88,0.87,0.82,0.75,0.82,0.88,0.86,0.86,0.85,0.91,0.9,0.84,0.85,0.92,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.0%
LAC 75, HOU 93	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.59,0.6,0.66,0.7,0.75,0.72,0.77,0.82,0.82,0.83,0.86,0.79,0.77,0.76,0.8,0.79,0.8,0.84,0.83,0.84,0.9,0.88,0.91,0.92,0.88,0.86,0.87,0.9,0.92,0.93,0.97,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.0%