NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	70		Excitement	3.4 [1096]		MVP	Mike Bibby (SAC): +13.1%
Sacramento Kings	96		Comeback	1.0 [1235]		LVP	Mike James (MIA): -12.5%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Malik Allen	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.01	-0.02	5	57%	0.04	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Sean Lampley	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.05	0.00	-0.05	3	29%	0.00	1	0.00	1	0%	0.00
Eddie House	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.04	-0.00	-0.04	17	42%	-0.00	1	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Vladimir Stepania	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	8	40%	-0.04	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.01
Sean Marks	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	0.00	-0.02	4	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Caron Butler	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.08	-0.00	-0.04	18	40%	-0.02	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.01
Brian Grant	-0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.07	-0.00	-0.03	11	36%	-0.03	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rasual Butler	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.07	0.00	-0.02	10	35%	-0.02	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Carter	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.15	0.00	-0.08	6	14%	-0.04	3	-0.04	2	0%	-0.02
Mike James	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.22	-0.01	-0.10	12	15%	-0.08	3	-0.04	3	67%	-0.01

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Bibby	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.17	0.01	0.04	15	73%	0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jim Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.07	0.00	0.04	9	70%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	100%	-0.00
Damon Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	-0.02	2	75%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Keon Clark	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.02	-0.03	7	60%	0.07	2	-0.05	6	67%	-0.01
Lawrence Funderburke	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	6	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	3	37%	0.00	1	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Mateen Cleaves	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.09	0.00	-0.09	3	0%	0.00	2	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Peja Stojakovic	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	10	50%	0.04	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	8	39%	0.00	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.02
Vlade Divac	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.09	0.01	-0.04	12	37%	-0.01	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.01
Doug Christie	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.07	0.00	-0.03	5	50%	-0.01	3	-0.03	4	75%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	1.5	26.3	15.4	24.9	2.7	24.3	119.3
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +54.1%

SAC +3.6%

MIA -5.3%

MIA -5.1%

SAC +2.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	SAC	NBA	MIA	SAC	NBA
this game	15.6	14.2	15.5	72.2	100.0	101.6
season	16.3	14.0		94.6	104.4
opponent	15.7	15.9		98.6	100.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.5	15.2	14.8	17.3	15.6
SAC	14.0	14.8	14.6	13.5	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Sean Lampley	14	14	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.03	-1	-25	24	16.4	15.5	0.91	11.2	14.7	-3.48
Sean Marks	26	27	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	0.10	-5	-21	16	16.3	15.4	0.90	12.4	14.9	-2.48
Rasual Butler	49	49	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.14	-8	-18	10	15.2	16.1	-0.86	13.5	14.9	-1.34
Vladimir Stepania	41	41	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	0.24	-18	-8	-10	15.6	15.7	-0.15	14.4	14.1	0.31
Anthony Carter	38	38	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	0.16	-16	-10	-6	15.4	15.8	-0.42	14.3	14.1	0.13
Malik Allen	50	49	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	0.01	-11	-15	4	15.8	15.5	0.35	14.6	13.7	0.91
Mike James	64	63	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	0.11	-15	-11	-4	15.9	15.2	0.71	14.0	14.5	-0.41
Brian Grant	65	63	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	0.15	-17	-9	-8	15.2	16.6	-1.36	15.2	12.3	2.87
Caron Butler	75	74	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	0.17	-18	-8	-10	15.2	17.0	-1.81	14.8	12.2	2.54
Eddie House	63	62	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	0.21	-21	-5	-16	16.3	14.4	1.91	14.1	14.4	-0.30

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Doug Christie	72	73	0.57	-0.07	0.63	-0.23	27	-1	28	14.7	12.5	2.25	15.3	16.7	-1.46
Vlade Divac	65	66	0.55	-0.05	0.61	-0.12	23	3	20	14.5	13.5	0.99	15.0	17.1	-2.13
Mike Bibby	63	65	0.38	0.12	0.26	-0.21	20	6	14	14.6	13.5	1.07	15.7	15.5	0.22
Keon Clark	66	67	0.32	0.18	0.13	-0.15	16	10	6	14.7	13.0	1.68	16.2	14.5	1.66
Peja Stojakovic	53	53	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.03	8	18	-10	14.2	14.2	-0.08	15.7	15.6	0.11
Jim Jackson	36	37	0.17	0.33	-0.16	-0.21	13	13	0	15.3	13.5	1.79	15.3	15.8	-0.53
Damon Jones	33	32	0.12	0.38	-0.26	-0.05	6	20	-14	13.5	14.6	-1.07	15.5	15.7	-0.22
Lawrence Funderburke	29	29	0.08	0.42	-0.34	-0.27	12	14	-2	13.9	14.3	-0.47	16.4	15.3	1.09
Hedo Turkoglu	32	32	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.02	1	25	-24	12.7	14.9	-2.16	15.3	15.8	-0.55
Gerald Wallace	17	17	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.09	3	23	-20	12.0	14.7	-2.66	17.1	15.3	1.78
Mateen Cleaves	14	14	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.03	1	25	-24	11.2	14.7	-3.48	16.4	15.5	0.91

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.63,0.67,0.67,0.72,0.73,0.77,0.78,0.79,0.79,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.77,0.83,0.83,0.82,0.83,0.82,0.84,0.85,0.84,0.8,0.81,0.82,0.82,0.78,0.79,0.82,0.86,0.86,0.89,0.94,0.96,0.99,1,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 91, SAC 111	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.62,0.68,0.69,0.72,0.72,0.73,0.76,0.77,0.78,0.8,0.79,0.86,0.83,0.82,0.83,0.83,0.86,0.85,0.82,0.82,0.76,0.82,0.84,0.78,0.84,0.84,0.9,0.95,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.2%
NJN 77, MIA 90	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.61,0.6,0.66,0.65,0.65,0.7,0.75,0.78,0.76,0.79,0.75,0.79,0.8,0.82,0.79,0.8,0.79,0.79,0.87,0.84,0.82,0.84,0.78,0.68,0.75,0.85,0.87,0.79,0.82,0.85,0.84,0.91,0.94,0.89,0.94,0.95,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.1%
TOR 98, DAL 117	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.63,0.7,0.7,0.77,0.79,0.76,0.79,0.8,0.78,0.78,0.78,0.83,0.84,0.86,0.83,0.86,0.86,0.82,0.77,0.74,0.8,0.78,0.74,0.77,0.73,0.73,0.73,0.82,0.78,0.87,0.89,0.94,0.92,0.96,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.8%