NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	112		Excitement	7.0 [424]		MVP	Raef LaFrentz (DEN): +27.4%
Denver Nuggets	107		Comeback	4.6 [473]		LVP	Avery Johnson (DEN): -15.7%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Doug Christie	0.25	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.22,0.22,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.13	0.14	0.02	8	95%	0.30	2	-0.05	6	50%	-0.05
Peja Stojakovic	0.17	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.13,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.17	0.11	0.04	-0.02	20	63%	0.17	1	0.00	6	100%	0.03
Bobby Jackson	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.1	-0.01	0.08	-0.03	9	55%	0.13	1	-0.03	4	50%	0.00
Mike Bibby	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.03	-0.02	10	50%	0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Scot Pollard	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	6	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	5	43%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Vlade Divac	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	7	60%	0.03	3	-0.08	1	100%	0.00
Chris Webber	-0.10	0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1	-0.10	-0.01	-0.01	15	55%	0.04	6	-0.14	8	62%	-0.02

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Raef LaFrentz	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.2,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27	0.27	0.21	0.05	-0.01	19	77%	0.31	1	-0.04	1	0%	-0.02
Ryan Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.03	-0.03	7	57%	0.09	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Calbert Cheaney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	7	71%	0.09	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Chris Andersen	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Posey	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,-0.01,0.08,0.05,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	16	53%	0.05	4	-0.11	4	75%	-0.00
Kenny Satterfield	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	3	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zendon Hamilton	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.10	-0.02	-0.01	9	33%	-0.08	1	-0.04	6	67%	-0.00
Voshon Lenard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.13,-0.16,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.07	-0.04	0.05	12	37%	-0.08	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Avery Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.17,-0.17,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.06	-0.08	0.02	18	55%	-0.01	5	-0.15	6	83%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.8	2.7	29.2	18.6	30.7	3.0	32.1	138.0
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +32.4%

SAC +5.0%

SAC +0.3%

SAC +13.6%

DEN -1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	DEN	NBA	SAC	DEN	NBA
this game	13.2	16.2	15.6	114.3	109.2	102.3
season	14.2	16.1		106.6	99.7
opponent	15.2	15.5		105.9	99.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	11.9	13.4	13.8	13.8	13.2
DEN	16.9	17.9	13.3	16.8	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Hedo Turkoglu	51	51	0.85	-0.35	1.20	0.32	18	-13	31	12.6	13.9	-1.24	17.7	14.5	3.22
Bobby Jackson	49	49	0.69	-0.19	0.89	0.28	14	-9	23	12.7	13.7	-0.98	17.1	15.3	1.80
Peja Stojakovic	89	89	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.31	7	-2	9	13.4	11.2	2.20	15.7	20.8	-5.08
Chris Webber	87	88	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.40	0	5	-5	13.3	12.8	0.46	15.6	20.7	-5.05
Doug Christie	90	90	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.43	-2	7	-9	13.3	12.5	0.79	15.7	21.1	-5.40
Vlade Divac	40	40	0.03	0.47	-0.43	0.03	0	5	-5	12.7	13.6	-0.80	17.3	15.3	2.01
Scot Pollard	35	34	-0.17	0.67	-0.85	-0.09	-3	8	-11	13.8	12.9	0.94	16.2	16.2	0.02
Mike Bibby	49	49	-0.19	0.69	-0.89	0.07	-9	14	-23	13.7	12.7	0.98	15.3	17.1	-1.80

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Zendon Hamilton	51	49	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.05	1	-6	7	15.0	17.4	-2.47	12.6	13.8	-1.22
Chris Andersen	5	5	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.05	-7	2	-9	19.0	16.0	2.99	14.0	13.2	0.82
Raef LaFrentz	74	74	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.28	4	-9	13	16.1	16.4	-0.34	13.0	14.0	-1.03
Ryan Bowen	55	55	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.14	-2	-3	1	15.8	16.6	-0.79	14.0	12.2	1.77
Kenny Satterfield	15	16	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	0.05	-9	4	-13	16.7	16.1	0.59	11.9	13.5	-1.54
Avery Johnson	83	82	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.40	4	-9	13	16.1	16.7	-0.59	13.5	11.9	1.54
Voshon Lenard	56	55	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.28	-4	-1	-3	15.7	16.7	-1.01	13.8	12.5	1.23
James Posey	84	84	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.45	1	-6	7	15.8	18.2	-2.39	13.4	12.3	1.10
Calbert Cheaney	67	70	-0.64	0.14	-0.78	-0.26	-13	8	-21	18.0	12.2	5.85	12.6	14.7	-2.04

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.53,0.61,0.59,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.63,0.58,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.36,0.41,0.5,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.52,0.42,0.29,0.45,0.56,0.67,0.79,0.62,0.62,0.43,0.42,0.23,0.26,0.19,0.1,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 101, CHI 96	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.58,0.59,0.62,0.62,0.64,0.61,0.65,0.57,0.58,0.57,0.58,0.55,0.59,0.58,0.61,0.52,0.44,0.48,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.43,0.39,0.37,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.59,0.67,0.75,0.78,0.78,0.48,0.52,0.27,0.21,0.19,0.14,0.1,0.03,0,0.02,0	92.8%
SAS 102, DEN 93	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.52,0.6,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.47,0.42,0.33,0.33,0.44,0.52,0.48,0.41,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.35,0.37,0.45,0.42,0.39,0.45,0.41,0.48,0.63,0.56,0.6,0.54,0.48,0.48,0.43,0.27,0.26,0.2,0.1,0.11,0.1,0.11,0.01,0	92.7%
CHI 95, HOU 92	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.5,0.5,0.58,0.59,0.61,0.61,0.62,0.58,0.6,0.65,0.64,0.58,0.51,0.44,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.27,0.31,0.37,0.39,0.45,0.57,0.48,0.41,0.41,0.52,0.52,0.72,0.81,0.7,0.52,0.24,0.19,0.08,0.2,0.17,0.03,0.07,0.06,0.09,0	92.5%