NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	102		Excitement	7.1 [408]		MVP	Terry Porter (SAS): +11.1%
Denver Nuggets	93		Comeback	1.8 [836]		LVP	George McCloud (DEN): -14.6%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Terry Porter	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.07	0.05	0.01	5	108%	0.20	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.00
Antonio Daniels	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08	0.00	0.08	0.00	9	59%	0.10	1	-0.02	9	78%	0.03
Bruce Bowen	0.04	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	-0.00	7	62%	0.06	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03
Charles Smith	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.07,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.02	0.05	-0.00	10	45%	0.08	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
David Robinson	0.04	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.06	-0.00	0.02	6	72%	0.04	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Tim Duncan	0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.04	-0.00	0.03	-0.01	15	63%	0.13	4	-0.09	8	75%	-0.00
Steven Smith	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	6	33%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	-0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	7	29%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Rose	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.09	-0.05	0.01	5	50%	-0.07	3	-0.07	8	87%	0.02

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Raef LaFrentz	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.08	0.04	0.01	14	71%	0.16	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Voshon Lenard	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.01,-0.03,0.04,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.07	0.04	0.05	19	63%	0.15	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Avery Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	4	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Calbert Cheaney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	2	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Ryan Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shawnelle Scott	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.01	9	40%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Nick Van Exel	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.07,-0.08	-0.08	-0.03	-0.06	-0.02	25	48%	-0.00	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Scott Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.09	-0.02	0.00	3	0%	-0.06	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
James Posey	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.11	-0.04	-0.04	14	21%	-0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
George McCloud	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.08	-0.07	-0.00	8	25%	-0.10	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.6	1.8	28.2	14.8	23.5	2.0	33.3	125.1
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +49.4%

SAS +25.6%

DEN -24.9%

DEN -2.8%

SAS +2.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	DEN	NBA	SAS	DEN	NBA
this game	14.5	17.1	15.6	109.7	103.3	102.3
season	15.8	16.1		104.3	99.7
opponent	15.2	15.7		105.9	98.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	14.9	13.9	16.2	13.1	14.5
DEN	12.8	16.7	22.0	18.4	17.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Malik Rose	57	56	0.70	-0.20	0.89	0.20	17	-8	25	13.9	15.4	-1.47	16.0	18.9	-2.89
Charles Smith	42	41	0.68	-0.18	0.85	0.24	15	-6	21	13.4	15.3	-1.89	16.1	17.8	-1.71
Terry Porter	57	56	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.18	13	-4	17	14.0	15.2	-1.29	16.4	18.1	-1.61
Antonio Daniels	51	51	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.18	10	-1	11	13.9	15.1	-1.20	16.0	18.5	-2.48
Tim Duncan	75	73	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.24	6	3	3	14.8	13.0	1.81	17.7	14.1	3.62
Bruce Bowen	46	42	0.05	0.45	-0.39	0.05	0	9	-9	14.3	14.6	-0.23	17.7	16.5	1.24
Tony Parker	36	34	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.06	-4	13	-17	15.2	14.0	1.29	18.1	16.4	1.61
David Robinson	50	48	-0.14	0.64	-0.79	0.03	-6	15	-21	15.2	13.6	1.68	17.9	16.1	1.71
Steven Smith	51	49	-0.18	0.68	-0.85	-0.00	-6	15	-21	15.3	13.4	1.89	17.8	16.1	1.71

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shawnelle Scott	41	43	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.16	3	-12	15	18.6	15.8	2.77	15.4	13.6	1.82
Calbert Cheaney	14	14	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.03	-2	-7	5	16.3	17.2	-0.91	14.7	14.4	0.30
Voshon Lenard	67	69	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.17	2	-11	13	16.6	18.4	-1.79	14.9	13.3	1.58
James Posey	68	72	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.16	1	-10	11	16.0	20.2	-4.14	14.6	13.9	0.72
Nick Van Exel	77	80	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.21	1	-10	11	16.7	18.9	-2.18	14.6	13.7	0.90
Scott Williams	28	25	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	0.07	-10	1	-11	15.6	17.7	-2.15	14.4	14.5	-0.03
Raef LaFrentz	66	72	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.23	-1	-8	7	17.0	17.3	-0.32	14.5	14.2	0.35
Avery Johnson	18	18	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.03	-14	5	-19	18.4	16.7	1.74	11.9	15.1	-3.19
Ryan Bowen	27	27	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.09	-12	3	-15	19.4	16.1	3.31	13.4	14.9	-1.54
George McCloud	44	45	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.18	-13	4	-17	17.8	16.3	1.45	13.9	15.0	-1.07

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.52,0.6,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.47,0.42,0.33,0.33,0.44,0.52,0.48,0.41,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.35,0.37,0.45,0.42,0.39,0.45,0.41,0.48,0.63,0.56,0.6,0.54,0.48,0.48,0.43,0.27,0.26,0.2,0.1,0.11,0.1,0.11,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 96, CHI 87	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.58,0.64,0.63,0.66,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.5,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.48,0.46,0.39,0.36,0.31,0.36,0.33,0.36,0.33,0.37,0.4,0.39,0.33,0.42,0.42,0.38,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.34,0.38,0.33,0.27,0.17,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.04,0.03,0.01,0	92.9%
DET 93, TOR 83	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.46,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.38,0.42,0.39,0.34,0.31,0.34,0.33,0.36,0.33,0.41,0.34,0.3,0.36,0.33,0.32,0.35,0.43,0.56,0.6,0.52,0.58,0.48,0.48,0.33,0.27,0.21,0.15,0.12,0.11,0.05,0.01,0,0	92.8%
CHI 115, GSW 110	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.44,0.44,0.4,0.39,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.44,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.46,0.39,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.38,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.53,0.38,0.27,0.31,0.24,0.13,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.09,0	92.8%