NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	106		Excitement	5.4 [727]		MVP	Michael Redd (MIL): +9.3%
Indiana Pacers	102		Comeback	2.4 [285]		LVP	Jonathan Bender (IND): -19.1%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Redd	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09	0.04	0.01	-0.04	11	65%	0.12	2	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Ray Allen	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02	0.06	-0.04	0.00	16	61%	0.02	1	0.00	6	83%	-0.04
Tim Thomas	0.01	0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01	0.02	0.03	0.04	18	57%	0.09	2	-0.08	8	75%	0.01
Anthony Mason	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	10	58%	0.04	2	-0.03	4	50%	-0.02
Sam Cassell	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01	-0.07	0.02	-0.06	19	49%	0.07	3	-0.06	9	89%	0.04
Mark Pope	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Przybilla	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ervin Johnson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	0	50%	-0.01	2	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Jason Caffey	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	3	50%	-0.00	2	-0.02	4	75%	0.01
Darvin Ham	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.10	0.00	-0.04	3	0%	-0.06	1	-0.01	2	0%	-0.01

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jalen Rose	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.04	0.04	0.11	-0.07	0.01	18	65%	0.05	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.23
Primoz Brezec	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	4	75%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Miller	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.05	0.00	0.05	13	67%	0.04	2	-0.04	10	100%	0.03
Al Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.05	0.00	-0.04	4	25%	0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Foster	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	0.00	10	45%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jermaine O'Neal	0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	7	41%	-0.02	1	-0.01	3	33%	-0.02
Austin Croshere	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.02	2	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Rogers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	-0.00	-0.02	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.02
Travis Best	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	1	50%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Jamaal Tinsley	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.14	-0.01	-0.03	14	37%	-0.03	4	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01
Jonathan Bender	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.06	-0.10	0.03	9	50%	-0.08	2	-0.11	10	90%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.2	2.4	29.4	15.5	25.6	2.5	38.4	140.1
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +11.7%

MIL +18.6%

MIL +4.7%

MIL +14.1%

MIL +1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	IND	NBA	MIL	IND	NBA
this game	14.8	14.4	15.6	106.0	105.2	102.3
season	15.3	15.3		104.7	101.6
opponent	15.4	16.0		100.9	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	14.6	13.9	16.6	14.1	14.8
IND	13.0	18.2	13.4	13.6	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Thomas	76	74	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.25	10	-6	16	14.8	14.7	0.07	14.9	13.0	1.94
Ray Allen	75	73	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.27	9	-5	14	15.1	14.0	1.07	14.7	13.7	0.91
Ervin Johnson	37	35	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.08	14	-10	24	15.3	14.5	0.79	16.7	13.1	3.57
Michael Redd	49	46	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.14	7	-3	10	13.7	15.8	-2.13	15.7	13.3	2.40
Jason Caffey	38	39	0.31	0.19	0.12	-0.04	12	-8	20	14.5	15.0	-0.53	15.3	13.8	1.46
Anthony Mason	82	80	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.37	-4	8	-12	14.7	15.2	-0.45	13.5	18.6	-5.04
Sam Cassell	76	74	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.42	-10	14	-24	14.7	15.0	-0.26	13.3	18.1	-4.79
Darvin Ham	42	42	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.27	-5	9	-14	14.7	14.9	-0.23	13.7	15.0	-1.27
Mark Pope	2	2	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.02	0	4	-4	9.5	14.9	-5.41	16.0	14.4	1.60
Joel Przybilla	23	20	-0.24	0.74	-0.98	0.14	-13	17	-30	17.1	14.1	3.03	12.4	15.0	-2.56

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jermaine O'Neal	33	33	-0.01	-0.48	0.47	-0.04	1	-5	6	14.2	14.5	-0.29	15.2	14.6	0.62
Carlos Rogers	19	17	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	-0.06	1	-5	6	12.6	14.9	-2.31	16.5	14.5	2.01
Travis Best	37	37	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.23	2	-6	8	14.7	14.2	0.48	13.2	15.7	-2.51
Reggie Miller	65	68	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.17	-2	-2	0	13.9	15.6	-1.73	15.3	13.7	1.68
Jeff Foster	65	72	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.30	2	-6	8	14.5	14.4	0.09	14.7	15.0	-0.33
Jalen Rose	71	75	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.37	4	-8	12	14.1	15.3	-1.20	14.5	15.8	-1.33
Jonathan Bender	44	43	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.40	5	-9	14	14.4	14.5	-0.09	14.5	15.0	-0.51
Primoz Brezec	36	37	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.09	-6	2	-8	14.2	14.6	-0.42	15.9	14.1	1.78
Austin Croshere	15	14	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	0.03	-11	7	-18	16.7	14.0	2.72	12.1	15.2	-3.09
Jamaal Tinsley	78	81	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.52	7	-11	18	14.3	15.1	-0.84	15.1	13.3	1.83
Al Harrington	22	23	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	0.23	-23	19	-42	18.0	13.4	4.61	14.4	14.9	-0.47

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.64,0.67,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.68,0.65,0.7,0.56,0.53,0.47,0.45,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.24,0.21,0.14,0.12,0.14,0.16,0.22,0.19,0.12,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.16,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 122, SAC 104	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.62,0.58,0.64,0.7,0.68,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.65,0.68,0.66,0.6,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.41,0.31,0.23,0.2,0.1,0.09,0.12,0.13,0.09,0.08,0.11,0.12,0.09,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.13,0.08,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.6%
DAL 105, PHX 92	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.54,0.58,0.66,0.69,0.73,0.76,0.76,0.73,0.68,0.66,0.58,0.47,0.38,0.46,0.39,0.29,0.27,0.17,0.19,0.18,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.07,0.09,0.14,0.09,0.07,0.11,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.07,0.08,0.04,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.2%
MIN 102, SAC 88	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.63,0.64,0.57,0.63,0.62,0.58,0.63,0.64,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.49,0.35,0.39,0.34,0.28,0.2,0.16,0.1,0.09,0.07,0.2,0.25,0.27,0.21,0.17,0.11,0.12,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	93.8%