NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	105		Excitement	3.9 [1011]		MVP	Johnny Newman (DAL): +17.3%
Phoenix Suns	92		Comeback	3.5 [366]		LVP	Anfernee Hardaway (PHX): -7.1%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Johnny Newman	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.16	0.01	-0.01	8	94%	0.17	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Dirk Nowitzki	0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.01	0.01	15	67%	0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Hardaway	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.00	5	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Manning	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Steve Nash	0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.04	0.01	-0.04	15	51%	0.02	3	-0.02	5	100%	0.01
Eduardo Najera	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	0.00	0.01	3	60%	0.00	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Evan Eschmeyer	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Michael Finley	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	0.01	-0.02	20	43%	-0.00	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Adrian Griffin	-0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	0.00	8	50%	0.01	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Juwan Howard	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.08	0.00	-0.04	10	36%	-0.00	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01

Phoenix Suns
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tony Delk	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.06	0.01	0.06	19	57%	0.03	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.01
John Wallace	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tom Gugliotta	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Marion	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	21	56%	0.06	3	-0.06	6	83%	0.00
Jake Tsakalidis	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	6	43%	-0.00	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Joe Crispin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	3	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Stephon Marbury	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rodney Rogers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.07	-0.00	-0.03	12	35%	-0.03	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Bo Outlaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	7	37%	-0.03	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.02
Dan Majerle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Anfernee Hardaway	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	0.00	14	52%	-0.01	4	-0.06	3	67%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.1	2.4	23.5	15.4	25.5	2.3	24.5	117.8
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +33.5%

DAL +7.2%

PHX -6.2%

DAL +14.0%

DAL +1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	PHX	NBA	DAL	PHX	NBA
this game	14.9	15.3	15.6	109.4	96.8	102.3
season	14.8	15.1		109.6	101.0
opponent	15.8	15.5		102.1	105.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	14.5	14.9	13.8	16.6	14.9
PHX	13.2	17.9	15.6	14.7	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eduardo Najera	44	44	0.66	-0.16	0.82	-0.10	26	-13	39	13.2	16.3	-3.14	15.3	15.2	0.16
Steve Nash	59	60	0.60	-0.10	0.70	-0.07	23	-10	33	15.6	13.8	1.87	16.2	13.6	2.66
Johnny Newman	50	50	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.03	17	-4	21	15.7	14.1	1.57	15.6	14.9	0.65
Dirk Nowitzki	66	67	0.51	-0.01	0.52	-0.05	19	-6	25	15.2	14.2	1.08	15.9	13.8	2.03
Adrian Griffin	63	63	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.09	8	5	3	14.0	16.6	-2.54	15.6	14.5	1.09
Michael Finley	77	74	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.12	0	13	-13	15.2	13.7	1.46	14.6	17.6	-2.98
Evan Eschmeyer	12	11	0.06	0.44	-0.38	-0.03	3	10	-7	11.3	15.4	-4.08	15.7	15.2	0.54
Tim Hardaway	38	37	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.14	-7	20	-27	13.7	15.7	-2.07	14.1	16.0	-1.96
Juwan Howard	56	55	-0.09	0.59	-0.69	0.23	-11	24	-35	16.4	12.8	3.53	14.8	15.9	-1.12
Danny Manning	15	14	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	0.24	-13	26	-39	15.8	14.7	1.06	13.3	15.6	-2.31

Phoenix Suns
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jake Tsakalidis	42	42	0.01	-0.51	0.53	-0.19	7	-20	27	15.3	15.2	0.02	15.7	14.3	1.44
John Wallace	2	2	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.09	3	-16	19	12.0	15.3	-3.32	17.0	14.9	2.14
Joe Crispin	11	10	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	-0.15	4	-17	21	15.2	15.3	-0.08	12.6	15.2	-2.57
Bo Outlaw	72	74	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.20	5	-18	23	14.6	17.3	-2.71	15.5	13.0	2.41
Tony Delk	78	78	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.24	4	-17	21	14.8	17.3	-2.49	15.5	12.4	3.10
Shawn Marion	84	85	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.16	-1	-12	11	15.0	16.9	-1.87	15.3	12.1	3.18
Anfernee Hardaway	83	85	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.09	-5	-8	3	15.0	16.8	-1.81	14.8	15.8	-1.03
Dan Majerle	9	9	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	0.13	-15	2	-17	18.0	15.0	3.03	11.0	15.3	-4.31
Tom Gugliotta	14	14	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	0.15	-19	6	-25	18.2	14.7	3.47	13.9	15.1	-1.14
Rodney Rogers	53	54	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	0.07	-20	7	-27	15.2	15.3	-0.02	14.3	15.7	-1.44
Stephon Marbury	27	27	-0.64	0.14	-0.78	0.18	-28	15	-43	17.5	14.4	3.11	13.4	15.5	-2.03

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.54,0.58,0.66,0.69,0.73,0.76,0.76,0.73,0.68,0.66,0.58,0.47,0.38,0.46,0.39,0.29,0.27,0.17,0.19,0.18,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.07,0.09,0.14,0.09,0.07,0.11,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.07,0.08,0.04,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 151, MIL 135	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.57,0.59,0.68,0.66,0.7,0.67,0.62,0.67,0.66,0.65,0.64,0.58,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.34,0.23,0.2,0.22,0.14,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.09,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.6%
GSW 121, LAC 103	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.57,0.57,0.67,0.67,0.68,0.75,0.65,0.68,0.6,0.58,0.51,0.35,0.28,0.27,0.29,0.23,0.21,0.12,0.06,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.08,0.09,0.06,0.11,0.04,0.03,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0	94.6%
MIL 108, ATL 91	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.52,0.6,0.62,0.69,0.73,0.7,0.67,0.7,0.63,0.6,0.55,0.47,0.38,0.33,0.32,0.31,0.34,0.31,0.23,0.22,0.14,0.11,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.4%