NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	86		Excitement	4.4 [934]		MVP	Eddie Griffin (HOU): +22.7%
Houston Rockets	98		Comeback	1.1 [1064]		LVP	Nick Van Exel (DEN): -22.0%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Posey	0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	12	61%	0.06	2	-0.04	7	86%	0.01
Voshon Lenard	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.07	-0.02	0.04	14	62%	0.02	1	-0.01	4	100%	0.02
Calbert Cheaney	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	8	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Scott Williams	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zendon Hamilton	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Ryan Bowen	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.01	3	50%	-0.01	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.00
Raef LaFrentz	-0.05	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	-0.02	-0.03	15	46%	-0.02	2	-0.03	5	80%	0.00
Avery Johnson	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.00	-0.02	0.05	12	58%	0.01	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Nick Van Exel	-0.22	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.18,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.21	-0.03	-0.02	14	14%	-0.14	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eddie Griffin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.2,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.23	0.03	0.03	11	104%	0.25	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Oscar Torres	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	1	75%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Kelvin Cato	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.01	7	60%	0.01	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.02
Terence Morris	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Moochie Norris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	8	44%	0.02	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Walt Williams	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	9	42%	0.02	2	-0.04	1	0%	-0.01
Kenny Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.00	-0.02	17	43%	0.01	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Cuttino Mobley	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	14	43%	-0.02	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Steve Francis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.02	8	61%	0.02	5	-0.09	7	71%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.0	1.8	25.2	16.4	25.4	1.8	26.0	119.5
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +50.7%

HOU +0.6%

HOU +2.6%

DEN -1.8%

DEN -2.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	HOU	NBA	DEN	HOU	NBA
this game	15.4	16.3	15.6	93.5	108.9	102.3
season	16.1	16.8		99.7	100.9
opponent	15.2	15.2		106.4	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	13.6	17.3	15.3	15.5	15.4
HOU	17.9	13.4	16.0	18.0	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Zendon Hamilton	7	7	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	0.05	-4	-8	4	12.7	15.6	-2.91	10.7	16.7	-6.01
Scott Williams	24	25	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.05	-2	-10	8	15.3	15.4	-0.09	14.7	16.9	-2.18
Voshon Lenard	41	42	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.11	-2	-10	8	14.7	15.9	-1.21	15.9	16.6	-0.75
Avery Johnson	51	50	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.21	-1	-11	10	16.3	14.2	2.09	16.7	15.7	1.00
Calbert Cheaney	52	49	-0.28	-0.21	-0.07	-0.05	-8	-4	-4	15.9	14.7	1.24	16.0	16.6	-0.61
Raef LaFrentz	74	71	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.14	-7	-5	-2	15.6	14.4	1.26	16.8	14.2	2.66
James Posey	80	78	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.16	-8	-4	-4	15.1	17.7	-2.60	16.8	12.9	3.85
Nick Van Exel	62	61	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	0.02	-16	4	-20	15.1	16.1	-1.04	16.8	15.2	1.60
Ryan Bowen	69	67	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.10	-12	0	-12	15.4	15.3	0.13	15.9	17.3	-1.47

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Cuttino Mobley	78	81	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.16	10	2	8	16.7	13.2	3.47	15.6	14.2	1.39
Eddie Griffin	49	51	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.05	12	0	12	15.4	17.3	-1.86	16.1	14.6	1.47
Steve Francis	86	88	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.20	6	6	0	16.5	12.0	4.45	15.2	20.5	-5.33
Moochie Norris	45	45	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.07	10	2	8	15.6	16.9	-1.36	16.4	14.4	2.00
Kenny Thomas	75	75	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.11	8	4	4	16.9	13.2	3.67	15.2	16.1	-0.88
Oscar Torres	16	15	0.17	0.33	-0.15	-0.06	8	4	4	12.9	17.0	-4.04	15.9	15.3	0.55
Terence Morris	7	6	0.14	0.36	-0.23	0.02	4	8	-4	14.7	16.4	-1.67	19.0	15.2	3.85
Walt Williams	45	47	0.14	0.36	-0.23	0.08	2	10	-8	16.9	15.6	1.36	14.4	16.4	-2.00
Kelvin Cato	49	52	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.12	0	12	-12	16.4	16.1	0.29	14.6	16.5	-1.90

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.53,0.49,0.52,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.63,0.71,0.69,0.71,0.72,0.73,0.8,0.84,0.86,0.89,0.91,0.96,0.95,0.94,0.95,0.94,0.93,0.85,0.92,0.89,0.85,0.86,0.87,0.94,0.97,0.93,0.99,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 73, HOU 91	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.57,0.51,0.5,0.6,0.66,0.6,0.67,0.6,0.65,0.68,0.66,0.61,0.7,0.7,0.76,0.84,0.86,0.85,0.87,0.9,0.95,0.93,0.92,0.88,0.84,0.79,0.9,0.96,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1	95.8%
SEA 103, IND 113	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.57,0.52,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.64,0.64,0.65,0.67,0.7,0.64,0.69,0.64,0.75,0.75,0.75,0.74,0.82,0.9,0.91,0.93,0.92,0.93,0.94,0.96,0.92,0.92,0.96,0.98,0.94,0.95,0.9,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.98,1,1,1,1	95.3%
PHI 68, ORL 79	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.54,0.54,0.48,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.63,0.66,0.73,0.66,0.65,0.63,0.68,0.64,0.69,0.69,0.64,0.7,0.75,0.79,0.8,0.85,0.87,0.9,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.93,0.92,0.9,0.9,0.9,0.82,0.94,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	95.3%