NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	105		Excitement	6.6 [477]		MVP	Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): +18.9%
Dallas Mavericks	103		Comeback	1.1 [758]		LVP	Steve Nash (DAL): -27.3%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antonio Daniels	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.12	0.03	0.00	6	93%	0.14	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Terry Porter	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13	0.04	0.08	-0.02	14	65%	0.19	3	-0.06	6	100%	0.10
Steven Smith	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.09	0.03	0.01	15	60%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.00	0.02	-0.02	6	50%	0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Tim Duncan	0.01	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.03	18	59%	0.11	4	-0.10	13	69%	-0.01
Bruce Bowen	-0.00	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	6	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Rose	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1	-0.08	-0.03	-0.01	4	40%	-0.04	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
David Robinson	-0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1	-0.10	-0.02	-0.02	4	44%	-0.06	2	-0.05	10	40%	-0.06

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.19	0.19	0.06	0.14	0.01	19	61%	0.24	2	-0.05	8	87%	0.02
Eduardo Najera	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.03	0.00	5	71%	0.08	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.03
Tim Hardaway	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.04	0.01	10	54%	0.05	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Wang Zhi-zhi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	-0.02	0.01	5	77%	0.04	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.01
Greg Buckner	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	4	60%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Adrian Griffin	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Manning	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.01	4	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Juwan Howard	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	0.01	10	41%	-0.04	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Michael Finley	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	10	42%	-0.02	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.03
Steve Nash	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.27	-0.27	-0.07	-0.21	-0.00	19	42%	-0.22	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.0	1.5	30.4	15.7	24.1	2.4	41.1	139.2
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +36.9%

SAS +22.1%

DAL -8.2%

DAL -1.6%

SAS +0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	DAL	NBA	SAS	DAL	NBA
this game	17.1	14.6	15.6	115.4	113.2	102.3
season	15.8	14.8		104.3	109.6
opponent	15.5	15.7		105.8	98.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	17.8	15.3	18.4	17.0	17.1
DAL	15.0	16.0	15.1	12.3	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Steven Smith	77	76	0.61	-0.11	0.71	0.40	7	-5	12	17.2	16.6	0.53	14.8	13.3	1.55
Tim Duncan	74	75	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.10	15	-13	28	17.2	16.5	0.69	14.9	12.7	2.20
Terry Porter	58	58	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.31	5	-3	8	17.5	16.4	1.14	13.4	16.7	-3.30
Antonio Daniels	49	49	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.38	-2	4	-6	16.6	17.7	-1.12	14.3	14.9	-0.60
David Robinson	66	63	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.30	-2	4	-6	17.1	17.1	0.01	14.8	14.1	0.65
Bruce Bowen	57	58	0.19	0.31	-0.13	0.22	-1	3	-4	17.1	17.0	0.09	14.3	15.0	-0.74
Malik Rose	41	43	0.11	0.39	-0.29	0.37	-9	11	-20	17.3	16.9	0.33	13.8	15.2	-1.42
Tony Parker	33	33	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.13	-3	5	-8	16.4	17.5	-1.14	16.7	13.4	3.30

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Wang Zhi-zhi	34	35	0.10	-0.60	0.69	-0.20	10	-12	22	12.3	15.9	-3.67	19.0	15.9	3.06
Adrian Griffin	7	8	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	0.01	-2	0	-2	17.1	14.3	2.80	22.1	16.6	5.52
Danny Manning	6	4	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	0.02	-5	3	-8	16.5	14.4	2.08	16.7	17.1	-0.35
Eduardo Najera	43	44	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.39	5	-7	12	13.7	15.3	-1.64	16.4	17.7	-1.31
Tim Hardaway	69	67	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.53	10	-12	22	14.3	15.3	-0.94	17.2	16.7	0.52
Juwan Howard	40	40	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	0.04	-10	8	-18	16.1	13.4	2.70	16.0	17.9	-1.85
Greg Buckner	29	30	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.28	-1	-1	0	15.1	14.3	0.80	15.0	18.1	-3.07
Michael Finley	66	66	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.06	-9	7	-16	14.8	13.9	0.94	17.3	16.6	0.73
Dirk Nowitzki	86	86	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.47	1	-3	4	14.5	15.0	-0.47	17.4	12.4	4.96
Steve Nash	75	75	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.35	-9	7	-16	14.7	13.9	0.76	16.9	18.2	-1.33

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.4,0.45,0.39,0.4,0.47,0.4,0.34,0.3,0.28,0.36,0.31,0.28,0.24,0.17,0.18,0.14,0.12,0.18,0.16,0.15,0.12,0.13,0.17,0.14,0.13,0.1,0.11,0.21,0.14,0.11,0.08,0.13,0.29,0.24,0.15,0.17,0.22,0.06,0.11,0.02,0.02,0.03,0
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 101, NYK 89	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.32,0.36,0.29,0.28,0.2,0.21,0.13,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.11,0.1,0.06,0.1,0.13,0.16,0.25,0.17,0.19,0.21,0.12,0.13,0.03,0.01,0,0,0	94.4%
HOU 95, MIN 90	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.42,0.45,0.41,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.44,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.34,0.31,0.31,0.28,0.27,0.2,0.17,0.25,0.18,0.16,0.19,0.1,0.2,0.19,0.12,0.09,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.07,0.13,0.08,0.21,0.17,0.15,0.1,0.2,0.1,0.14,0.11,0.16,0.08,0	94.2%
DAL 112, GSW 103	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.27,0.21,0.2,0.18,0.17,0.13,0.14,0.11,0.09,0.14,0.08,0.09,0.11,0.15,0.1,0.05,0.1,0.09,0.11,0.14,0.07,0.13,0.26,0.34,0.33,0.16,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.03,0,0,0	94.1%