NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	102		Excitement	1.3 [918]		MVP	Jason Richardson (GSW): +11.8%
Charlotte Hornets	114		Comeback	1.1 [1104]		LVP	Danny Fortson (GSW): -17.7%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Richardson	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.05	0.03	-0.03	15	56%	0.12	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.01
Marc Jackson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Troy Murphy	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	1	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Chris Mills	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	12	38%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Adonal Foyle	-0.03	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.06	0.00	-0.03	4	30%	-0.02	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.00
Mookie Blaylock	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	0.02	6	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Bob Sura	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.01	-0.02	0.03	11	50%	-0.04	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Antawn Jamison	-0.08	0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.02	17	49%	-0.07	2	-0.01	15	80%	0.00
Larry Hughes	-0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.02	-0.02	13	29%	-0.10	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Danny Fortson	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.08,-0.1,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.13	-0.03	0.01	15	39%	-0.11	3	-0.07	6	67%	-0.01

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Robert Traylor	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.06	0.03	-0.03	10	68%	0.12	1	-0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Baron Davis	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.02	0.03	-0.04	16	68%	0.18	5	-0.09	9	78%	0.03
Bryce Drew	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.02	0.01	7	67%	0.07	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Stacey Augmon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	-0.00	-0.01	10	55%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
David Wesley	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.00	8	69%	0.07	2	-0.05	10	60%	-0.00
Elden Campbell	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	-0.02	2	100%	0.04	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kirk Haston	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
P.J. Brown	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lee Nailon	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	13	43%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Jamaal Magloire	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.01	0.00	8	62%	0.06	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.2	2.0	27.3	15.4	28.2	1.8	34.3	137.3
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHH +79.5%

GSW -5.0%

GSW -18.6%

GSW -9.1%

CHH +3.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	CHH	NBA	GSW	CHH	NBA
this game	14.8	14.7	15.6	104.1	117.5	102.3
season	14.7	15.9		100.7	102.2
opponent	15.6	15.1		101.1	106.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	15.7	18.0	13.5	12.4	14.8
CHH	13.7	12.8	15.3	17.1	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Richardson	54	51	0.03	-0.53	0.57	-0.14	6	-18	24	13.3	16.7	-3.39	17.4	11.7	5.67
Troy Murphy	18	19	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.01	0	-12	12	16.8	14.4	2.40	14.2	14.9	-0.70
Mookie Blaylock	28	29	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	-0.04	0	-12	12	14.7	14.8	-0.09	15.3	14.5	0.89
Marc Jackson	22	22	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	0.03	-3	-9	6	15.9	14.5	1.41	13.4	15.1	-1.70
Adonal Foyle	43	41	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.10	1	-13	14	14.5	15.1	-0.63	16.2	13.6	2.55
Chris Mills	42	40	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	0.01	-14	2	-16	16.2	13.8	2.45	13.0	15.9	-2.89
Danny Fortson	68	68	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.13	-10	-2	-8	14.5	15.5	-1.03	14.7	14.8	-0.15
Larry Hughes	70	68	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.10	-12	0	-12	14.8	14.7	0.09	14.5	15.3	-0.89
Antawn Jamison	79	80	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.14	-12	0	-12	14.6	15.5	-0.88	14.5	15.6	-1.12
Bob Sura	66	67	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.10	-16	4	-20	15.0	14.4	0.66	13.7	17.1	-3.44

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jamaal Magloire	54	54	0.74	-0.24	0.98	-0.02	26	-14	40	12.2	17.9	-5.68	16.0	13.4	2.55
Stacey Augmon	62	61	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.08	17	-5	22	14.3	15.5	-1.24	15.2	14.1	1.14
Baron Davis	92	91	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.23	8	4	4	14.7	15.4	-0.72	14.6	17.7	-3.12
Bryce Drew	36	36	0.35	0.15	0.19	-0.04	13	-1	14	13.2	15.6	-2.38	16.3	13.9	2.40
Kirk Haston	25	26	0.32	0.18	0.14	-0.03	12	0	12	13.3	15.2	-1.94	13.6	15.3	-1.69
David Wesley	61	65	0.16	0.34	-0.17	0.07	3	9	-6	15.6	13.3	2.30	14.1	16.3	-2.20
Robert Traylor	51	50	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.23	-5	17	-22	15.9	13.4	2.53	15.1	14.6	0.50
P.J. Brown	15	16	0.07	0.43	-0.35	-0.01	3	9	-6	14.1	14.8	-0.70	16.1	14.6	1.56
Lee Nailon	65	65	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.16	-5	17	-22	16.1	12.0	4.11	13.8	16.8	-3.06
Elden Campbell	24	26	-0.28	0.78	-1.06	0.07	-12	24	-36	17.4	13.8	3.58	14.5	14.9	-0.43

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.57,0.59,0.59,0.61,0.53,0.61,0.63,0.64,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.64,0.59,0.61,0.67,0.79,0.9,0.89,0.88,0.82,0.78,0.73,0.71,0.65,0.66,0.76,0.86,0.85,0.94,0.96,0.98,0.96,0.98,0.99,1,1,0.97,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHA 102, MIL 131	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.57,0.6,0.57,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.53,0.61,0.54,0.61,0.54,0.65,0.64,0.7,0.75,0.86,0.82,0.8,0.75,0.7,0.71,0.72,0.75,0.8,0.84,0.85,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.5%
CHI 94, HOU 109	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.54,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.61,0.63,0.66,0.68,0.66,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.63,0.61,0.59,0.71,0.74,0.77,0.78,0.8,0.86,0.82,0.75,0.73,0.76,0.68,0.68,0.75,0.77,0.84,0.94,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.0%
MIN 95, LAC 111	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.62,0.61,0.6,0.6,0.66,0.65,0.62,0.55,0.6,0.65,0.66,0.62,0.6,0.56,0.56,0.65,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.67,0.67,0.82,0.79,0.79,0.8,0.67,0.71,0.62,0.68,0.73,0.77,0.86,0.95,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.9%