NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	88		Excitement	5.4 [726]		MVP	Chris Mills (GSW): +7.0%
Golden State Warriors	101		Comeback	1.6 [396]		LVP	Clifford Robinson (DET): -20.1%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chucky Atkins	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	7	53%	0.02	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Ben Wallace	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	8	56%	0.01	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.05
Rodney White	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jon Barry	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.00	0.03	6	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Curry	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	0.00	0.01	2	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mikki Moore	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.02	2	33%	-0.00	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Dana Barros	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.00	-0.02	0.01	7	60%	0.00	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Corliss Williamson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.01	8	60%	0.05	3	-0.08	4	100%	0.02
Zeljko Rebraca	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.09	-0.02	-0.00	6	33%	-0.01	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Jerry Stackhouse	-0.19	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,-0.05,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.15	-0.08	-0.04	23	43%	-0.03	6	-0.16	3	100%	0.00
Clifford Robinson	-0.20	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.18,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.21,-0.21,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.09	-0.04	0.07	17	35%	-0.16	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.04	-0.01	7	50%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mookie Blaylock	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	0.01	2	100%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Larry Hughes	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.02	0.03	10	67%	0.03	2	-0.05	4	50%	-0.05
Jason Richardson	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.05	-0.02	0.05	13	58%	-0.02	0	0.00	5	80%	0.00
Antawn Jamison	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	18	49%	-0.01	1	-0.03	13	77%	-0.01
Bob Sura	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.04	-0.03	8	65%	0.04	4	-0.08	4	100%	0.02
Troy Murphy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	8	37%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Danny Fortson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.09	-0.02	-0.02	9	40%	-0.06	3	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Erick Dampier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.11	-0.03	0.00	4	50%	-0.01	5	-0.13	2	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	20.8	2.4	28.4	15.4	26.5	1.7	32.0	127.2
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +24.1%

GSW +6.7%

GSW +8.9%

GSW +3.2%

GSW +7.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	GSW	NBA	DET	GSW	NBA
this game	14.8	14.6	15.6	89.8	103.1	102.3
season	15.7	14.7		101.9	100.7
opponent	15.1	15.8		106.2	99.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	14.4	17.4	13.6	13.8	14.8
GSW	15.6	11.4	15.8	15.6	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dana Barros	62	61	0.06	-0.56	0.61	-0.12	6	-19	25	13.5	17.1	-3.61	15.4	13.2	2.12
Rodney White	7	7	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.09	3	-16	19	11.9	15.1	-3.20	13.4	14.6	-1.22
Zeljko Rebraca	27	25	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	0.00	-4	-9	5	16.1	14.4	1.72	15.9	14.1	1.82
Ben Wallace	78	78	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.04	-4	-9	5	14.8	15.0	-0.22	14.5	14.7	-0.24
Mikki Moore	14	14	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.14	-2	-11	9	11.9	15.3	-3.38	13.6	14.7	-1.07
Michael Curry	49	49	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.06	-5	-8	3	15.7	14.0	1.69	14.7	14.4	0.35
Clifford Robinson	64	65	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.03	-9	-4	-5	14.9	14.7	0.14	13.9	15.9	-2.08
Corliss Williamson	41	40	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.02	-11	-2	-9	15.3	14.5	0.84	14.7	14.4	0.32
Jerry Stackhouse	74	76	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.07	-10	-3	-7	14.3	16.6	-2.33	14.6	14.3	0.31
Jon Barry	39	40	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.06	-12	-1	-11	15.2	14.6	0.54	14.8	14.4	0.40
Chucky Atkins	35	35	-0.54	0.04	-0.59	-0.04	-17	4	-21	17.1	13.6	3.47	13.3	15.3	-1.94

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bob Sura	47	48	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.13	10	3	7	15.6	13.6	1.99	14.6	15.0	-0.44
Jason Richardson	76	74	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.07	11	2	9	14.2	15.6	-1.39	14.6	15.4	-0.78
Troy Murphy	34	35	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.05	11	2	9	14.6	14.5	0.04	15.4	14.5	0.94
Chris Mills	38	41	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.04	11	2	9	15.9	13.7	2.18	15.4	14.4	1.05
Mookie Blaylock	31	32	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.03	9	4	5	15.5	14.1	1.35	15.6	14.5	1.14
Erick Dampier	53	52	0.20	0.30	-0.09	-0.00	7	6	1	13.3	16.0	-2.66	15.5	14.1	1.39
Larry Hughes	67	66	0.20	0.30	-0.09	0.09	4	9	-5	14.1	15.5	-1.35	14.5	15.6	-1.14
Antawn Jamison	77	76	0.15	0.35	-0.19	0.09	2	11	-9	14.2	16.0	-1.77	14.1	17.4	-3.27
Danny Fortson	67	66	0.09	0.41	-0.31	0.09	0	13	-13	14.8	14.0	0.82	14.8	14.8	0.02

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.5,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.43,0.47,0.42,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.4,0.49,0.47,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.7,0.67,0.63,0.55,0.58,0.55,0.6,0.58,0.59,0.69,0.59,0.67,0.68,0.7,0.9,0.88,0.92,0.96,0.98,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 109, DAL 126	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.5,0.46,0.39,0.38,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.45,0.4,0.47,0.47,0.52,0.54,0.53,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.65,0.6,0.55,0.48,0.61,0.68,0.65,0.59,0.69,0.63,0.68,0.78,0.81,0.85,0.83,0.91,0.9,0.94,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	94.8%
MEM 82, NYK 90	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.4,0.41,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.34,0.38,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.64,0.63,0.66,0.69,0.64,0.61,0.58,0.65,0.71,0.72,0.69,0.67,0.71,0.87,0.87,0.94,0.93,0.97,0.96,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.98,1,1,1	94.4%
ATL 80, MIL 94	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.36,0.37,0.38,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.4,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.61,0.59,0.54,0.67,0.58,0.6,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.68,0.59,0.62,0.59,0.7,0.82,0.85,0.87,0.93,0.92,0.88,0.94,0.95,0.93,0.97,1,1,1,1	94.3%