NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	102		Excitement	7.4 [337]		MVP	Morris Peterson (TOR): +26.1%
Indiana Pacers	90		Comeback	2.9 [348]		LVP	Jeff Foster (IND): -20.6%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Morris Peterson	0.26	0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.26	0.16	0.13	0.03	18	69%	0.26	0	0.00	6	83%	-0.00
Alvin Williams	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.09	0.04	0.06	0.01	20	55%	0.11	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.01
Eric Montross	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.00	4	70%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Jerome Williams	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	4	40%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Antonio Davis	-0.14	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.23,-0.23,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.01	-0.00	10	23%	-0.05	2	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01
Keon Clark	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.12,-0.15,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.09	-0.05	0.01	11	38%	-0.06	2	-0.10	4	50%	-0.04
Vince Carter	-0.17	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17	-0.08	-0.08	0.02	24	46%	-0.06	4	-0.11	2	50%	-0.01

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Reggie Miller	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.11	-0.03	0.01	11	70%	0.07	0	0.00	5	100%	0.02
Carlos Rogers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.02	0.00	-0.05	1	0%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Austin Croshere	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Travis Best	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	-0.01	3	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jermaine O'Neal	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	0.02	0.03	22	54%	0.05	3	-0.08	6	50%	-0.07
Jamaal Tinsley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	9	47%	-0.02	3	-0.04	1	100%	-0.00
Jalen Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.02	0.02	9	45%	-0.06	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.03
Al Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.2,-0.15,-0.15,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.12	-0.08	0.00	14	40%	-0.08	4	-0.12	2	100%	0.01
Jeff Foster	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.21	-0.11	-0.09	-0.00	8	39%	-0.05	4	-0.16	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.9	2.5	29.4	18.6	25.2	2.8	32.2	136.4
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +31.6%

IND -11.8%

TOR +21.1%

TOR +8.7%

TOR +0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	IND	NBA	TOR	IND	NBA
this game	16.4	15.6	15.6	112.1	101.1	102.3
season	16.2	15.3		100.3	101.6
opponent	15.4	15.6		100.9	100.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	15.0	18.5	17.2	15.1	16.4
IND	16.3	13.6	14.9	17.8	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Keon Clark	62	59	0.57	-0.07	0.63	0.18	13	-1	14	15.7	17.9	-2.12	15.8	15.1	0.71
Morris Peterson	83	81	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.10	15	-3	18	15.6	25.2	-9.68	15.7	14.5	1.18
Alvin Williams	81	80	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.14	13	-1	14	16.2	18.2	-2.00	15.6	15.3	0.27
Vince Carter	86	83	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.14	13	-1	14	16.5	15.8	0.65	15.7	13.7	2.04
Jerome Williams	38	35	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.07	14	-2	16	15.9	16.8	-0.90	16.0	15.3	0.70
Antonio Davis	53	53	0.17	0.33	-0.15	0.06	4	8	-4	17.4	15.1	2.34	15.0	16.4	-1.37
Eric Montross	52	54	-0.31	0.81	-1.12	0.04	-12	24	-36	18.2	14.0	4.28	15.2	16.2	-1.03

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Carlos Rogers	1	0	0.00	-0.50	0.51	0.06	-2	-10	8	17.0	15.6	1.44	0.0	16.4	-16.42
Jamaal Tinsley	57	59	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	-0.03	-1	-11	10	15.8	15.2	0.50	16.2	16.8	-0.66
Al Harrington	69	71	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.07	-1	-11	10	15.0	17.4	-2.36	17.3	13.2	4.06
Jalen Rose	59	60	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	0.02	-9	-3	-6	14.8	17.0	-2.20	16.9	15.5	1.47
Jeff Foster	47	49	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.25	-2	-10	8	16.6	14.4	2.17	17.6	15.0	2.59
Reggie Miller	67	69	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.11	-9	-3	-6	16.0	14.4	1.61	15.6	19.1	-3.59
Austin Croshere	33	33	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.05	-12	0	-12	15.9	15.4	0.53	13.7	18.0	-4.32
Travis Best	32	32	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.11	-11	-1	-10	15.2	15.8	-0.50	16.8	16.2	0.66
Jermaine O'Neal	80	82	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.20	-13	1	-14	15.5	16.3	-0.85	16.4	16.6	-0.15

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.43,0.5,0.52,0.55,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.38,0.44,0.48,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.48,0.42,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.37,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.69,0.63,0.67,0.68,0.58,0.52,0.53,0.61,0.42,0.21,0.34,0.33,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 100, DEN 92	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.43,0.42,0.41,0.41,0.45,0.47,0.4,0.32,0.37,0.38,0.45,0.42,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.41,0.45,0.54,0.5,0.54,0.46,0.45,0.48,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.63,0.67,0.68,0.58,0.57,0.38,0.43,0.44,0.36,0.41,0.28,0.27,0.21,0.14,0.04,0	93.1%
CLE 106, WAS 99	0.5,0.51,0.53,0.48,0.46,0.54,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.4,0.46,0.4,0.36,0.4,0.4,0.45,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.51,0.5,0.55,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.59,0.62,0.56,0.63,0.6,0.5,0.57,0.59,0.48,0.37,0.32,0.24,0.28,0.21,0.01,0.03,0.01,0	93.0%
DAL 81, IND 73	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.58,0.57,0.59,0.51,0.51,0.42,0.46,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.39,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.54,0.66,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.48,0.48,0.32,0.31,0.41,0.4,0.1,0.07,0.03,0.02,0	92.7%