NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	101		Excitement	6.6 [487]		MVP	Karl Malone (UTA): +21.9%
Utah Jazz	111		Comeback	1.2 [1049]		LVP	Chris Mills (GSW): -15.1%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Richardson	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.11	0.05	0.02	9	78%	0.14	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.00
Adonal Foyle	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Fortson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,0,0,0	-0.02	0.03	0.01	9	55%	0.04	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Mookie Blaylock	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.04,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	6	67%	0.09	3	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Antawn Jamison	-0.03	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	12	48%	-0.03	1	-0.00	5	100%	0.02
Larry Hughes	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.05,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05	0.00	-0.07	-0.02	19	57%	0.03	3	-0.08	8	87%	0.03
Bob Sura	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	3	64%	0.00	3	-0.09	8	62%	-0.04
Erick Dampier	-0.09	0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	-0.01	3	90%	0.05	6	-0.14	4	75%	-0.01
Troy Murphy	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.12	-0.02	-0.00	4	20%	-0.05	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Chris Mills	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.13	-0.04	-0.02	8	12%	-0.10	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Karl Malone	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.09	0.13	-0.00	27	59%	0.24	1	-0.02	12	92%	0.04
Andrei Kirilenko	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	-0.01	0.08	-0.02	6	67%	0.14	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jarron Collins	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.06	0.00	0.02	5	80%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Donyell Marshall	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.05	-0.01	0.01	14	62%	0.06	1	-0.03	6	83%	0.02
John Crotty	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	4	60%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
John Stockton	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.03	0.02	11	56%	0.03	2	-0.04	5	100%	0.01
DeShawn Stevenson	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	6	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Quincy Lewis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Greg Ostertag	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Scott Padgett	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
John Starks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
John Amaechi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.07	-0.04	-0.00	2	67%	0.02	4	-0.13	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.8	1.0	29.2	15.6	30.6	2.7	33.3	141.1
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

UTA +25.8%

GSW -2.2%

UTA +6.0%

UTA +17.5%

UTA +2.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	UTA	NBA	GSW	UTA	NBA
this game	13.9	15.3	15.6	103.1	112.1	102.3
season	14.7	16.1		100.7	102.9
opponent	15.1	15.1		101.9	106.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	13.0	13.6	13.3	16.1	13.9
UTA	14.7	15.2	13.9	18.2	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Richardson	55	52	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.09	3	-13	16	14.8	12.8	2.01	15.3	15.4	-0.09
Adonal Foyle	10	10	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.04	-1	-9	8	12.9	14.0	-1.11	13.6	15.5	-1.93
Troy Murphy	23	25	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	0.04	-6	-4	-2	11.7	14.6	-2.88	14.8	15.5	-0.77
Chris Mills	51	51	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.02	-5	-5	0	13.5	14.3	-0.77	14.8	15.9	-1.17
Danny Fortson	57	58	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.13	-2	-8	6	14.4	13.2	1.21	15.3	15.4	-0.06
Larry Hughes	61	62	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.17	-1	-9	8	15.0	12.1	2.83	15.0	15.9	-0.89
Mookie Blaylock	37	37	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.04	-9	-1	-8	12.1	15.0	-2.83	15.9	15.0	0.89
Erick Dampier	73	73	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.31	-4	-6	2	14.5	12.1	2.44	15.9	13.6	2.33
Bob Sura	43	47	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.11	-13	3	-16	12.8	14.8	-2.01	15.4	15.3	0.09
Antawn Jamison	80	80	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.16	-12	2	-14	14.0	13.6	0.35	15.5	14.4	1.13

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Karl Malone	82	82	0.61	-0.11	0.71	0.14	16	-6	22	14.6	18.9	-4.36	14.3	11.7	2.57
John Stockton	66	68	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.14	11	-1	12	15.5	15.0	0.50	15.1	11.2	3.94
Donyell Marshall	73	73	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.18	9	1	8	15.9	13.8	2.02	14.8	11.3	3.46
Andrei Kirilenko	53	52	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.15	5	5	0	15.8	14.8	1.03	13.7	14.1	-0.32
John Starks	37	35	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.14	5	5	0	14.5	15.9	-1.40	13.2	14.3	-1.13
Jarron Collins	34	36	0.28	0.22	0.06	-0.02	10	0	10	14.9	15.6	-0.69	14.6	13.5	1.17
Quincy Lewis	14	14	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.01	3	7	-4	14.2	15.5	-1.30	15.6	13.6	2.04
DeShawn Stevenson	41	41	0.08	0.42	-0.34	-0.01	3	7	-4	15.4	15.3	0.14	13.2	14.4	-1.17
John Crotty	40	38	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.14	-2	12	-14	16.2	14.8	1.41	12.5	14.8	-2.28
Scott Padgett	10	10	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.01	0	10	-10	17.1	15.1	1.97	9.0	14.5	-5.45
Greg Ostertag	26	23	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	0.09	-4	14	-18	16.3	15.0	1.37	13.1	14.1	-1.06
John Amaechi	19	18	-0.11	0.61	-0.73	0.06	-6	16	-22	13.7	15.7	-2.04	11.1	14.5	-3.41

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.52,0.55,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.67,0.66,0.65,0.7,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.58,0.61,0.69,0.71,0.77,0.75,0.75,0.8,0.79,0.82,0.88,0.87,0.81,0.74,0.75,0.69,0.69,0.7,0.68,0.74,0.66,0.71,0.76,0.91,0.92,0.88,0.9,0.81,0.84,0.89,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 85, DAL 90	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.63,0.65,0.68,0.64,0.68,0.76,0.72,0.73,0.77,0.75,0.7,0.71,0.76,0.79,0.85,0.8,0.8,0.83,0.8,0.83,0.78,0.76,0.74,0.67,0.72,0.59,0.63,0.69,0.74,0.72,0.82,0.75,0.88,0.92,0.85,0.95,0.89,0.84,0.99,1,1	94.3%
UTA 86, TOR 98	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.62,0.68,0.7,0.71,0.73,0.67,0.6,0.7,0.75,0.73,0.72,0.75,0.84,0.84,0.84,0.82,0.91,0.94,0.86,0.84,0.83,0.79,0.66,0.71,0.64,0.66,0.66,0.68,0.71,0.88,0.89,0.91,0.87,0.89,0.96,0.99,1,1	94.1%
SAC 93, OKC 101	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.62,0.69,0.7,0.65,0.66,0.68,0.68,0.71,0.7,0.76,0.71,0.76,0.72,0.72,0.73,0.84,0.89,0.91,0.87,0.83,0.76,0.71,0.68,0.56,0.63,0.67,0.6,0.58,0.81,0.79,0.8,0.85,0.9,0.88,0.82,0.81,0.85,0.85,0.95,1	93.8%