NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	120		Excitement	3.6 [1058]		MVP	Bruce Bowen (SAS): +11.2%
Atlanta Hawks	112		Comeback	1.1 [1080]		LVP	Shareef Abdur-Rahim (ATL): -14.1%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bruce Bowen	0.11	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.21	0.00	0.10	8	117%	0.12	1	-0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Danny Ferry	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.10	0.00	0.01	5	92%	0.08	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Terry Porter	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.01	-0.00	3	117%	0.08	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Steven Smith	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.11	-0.02	0.05	20	67%	0.08	3	-0.04	3	33%	-0.01
Antonio Daniels	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	5	64%	0.01	1	-0.00	4	75%	0.01
David Robinson	0.00	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	8	60%	0.00	0	0.00	9	78%	-0.00
Amal McCaskill	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	-0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.13	0.02	-0.07	20	46%	0.03	5	-0.06	6	83%	0.00
Tony Parker	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.17	0.01	-0.12	7	35%	-0.00	5	-0.04	6	33%	-0.03
Malik Rose	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.07	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	-0.01	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jacque Vaughn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.08	0.00	0.03	6	81%	0.06	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Nazr Mohammed	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.07	0.00	0.03	7	71%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cal Bowdler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	0.00	0.01	3	75%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Mark Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.01	0.00	7	50%	0.00	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Hanno Mottola	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DerMarr Johnson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Toni Kukoc	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	15	56%	0.03	3	-0.03	9	89%	0.02
Jason Terry	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	0.02	21	49%	0.01	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Emanual Davis	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.01	8	44%	-0.01	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Dion Glover	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	0.02	8	31%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.09	-0.03	0.02	16	50%	-0.01	5	-0.13	4	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.6	1.8	29.3	15.7	24.2	1.7	40.1	136.4
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +34.0%

ATL -5.7%

SAS +11.7%

SAS +6.4%

SAS +3.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	ATL	NBA	SAS	ATL	NBA
this game	15.4	12.3	15.6	114.3	108.7	102.3
season	15.8	15.5		104.3	99.7
opponent	15.2	15.7		103.9	98.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	15.0	15.2	15.8	15.6	15.4
ATL	11.6	14.1	11.3	12.1	12.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tony Parker	81	80	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.08	15	-7	22	15.3	15.7	-0.39	12.4	11.9	0.49
Steven Smith	73	71	0.50	-0.00	0.50	-0.03	18	-10	28	16.3	13.4	2.88	12.5	11.7	0.86
David Robinson	63	63	0.49	0.01	0.47	-0.07	19	-11	30	16.6	13.6	2.98	13.2	10.8	2.42
Tim Duncan	96	96	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.28	6	2	4	15.2	17.7	-2.47	12.2	12.4	-0.19
Bruce Bowen	51	51	0.44	0.06	0.39	-0.14	20	-12	32	16.3	14.6	1.68	13.0	11.5	1.52
Malik Rose	32	29	0.05	0.45	-0.39	0.20	-5	13	-18	16.0	15.2	0.85	12.1	12.3	-0.16
Antonio Daniels	51	50	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.38	-12	20	-32	14.5	16.3	-1.75	11.4	13.0	-1.62
Danny Ferry	36	35	0.02	0.48	-0.45	0.26	-8	16	-24	13.2	16.5	-3.29	11.5	12.6	-1.07
Amal McCaskill	18	17	0.01	0.49	-0.49	0.18	-6	14	-20	12.2	16.1	-3.91	9.5	12.8	-3.26
Terry Porter	24	23	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.19	-7	15	-22	15.7	15.3	0.39	11.9	12.4	-0.49

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DerMarr Johnson	7	7	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	0.02	-2	-6	4	15.1	12.0	3.10	17.3	15.3	2.01
Mark Strickland	39	38	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	-0.37	11	-19	30	12.1	12.3	-0.20	15.8	15.2	0.64
Hanno Mottola	8	9	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.08	-5	-3	-2	13.5	12.1	1.35	15.9	15.4	0.52
Jacque Vaughn	44	45	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.28	7	-15	22	13.3	11.5	1.86	15.3	15.5	-0.25
Nazr Mohammed	32	33	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.09	-1	-7	6	13.0	11.9	1.13	16.5	14.9	1.61
Toni Kukoc	71	72	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.42	7	-15	22	12.6	11.5	1.09	15.3	15.6	-0.29
Dion Glover	46	48	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	0.07	-12	4	-16	11.3	13.0	-1.67	15.1	15.7	-0.56
Cal Bowdler	30	30	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	0.08	-13	5	-18	12.2	12.3	-0.07	14.5	15.8	-1.32
Emanual Davis	59	60	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	0.02	-15	7	-22	11.5	13.3	-1.86	15.5	15.3	0.25
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	96	98	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.29	-6	-2	-4	12.0	15.1	-3.10	15.3	17.3	-2.01
Jason Terry	83	85	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.16	-11	3	-14	12.1	12.7	-0.62	15.3	15.7	-0.42

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.43,0.43,0.35,0.32,0.33,0.25,0.2,0.2,0.25,0.26,0.2,0.18,0.14,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.14,0.16,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.11,0.05,0.1,0.12,0.13,0.07,0.03,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 128, PHI 111	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.39,0.34,0.34,0.25,0.22,0.24,0.22,0.25,0.19,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.15,0.13,0.12,0.09,0.1,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.12,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.01,0,0	96.7%
DAL 108, ORL 93	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.48,0.42,0.42,0.34,0.27,0.26,0.27,0.33,0.25,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.18,0.21,0.18,0.2,0.16,0.12,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.12,0.09,0.07,0.01,0,0,0	96.4%
LAC 109, POR 98	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.31,0.26,0.27,0.24,0.25,0.26,0.26,0.23,0.17,0.18,0.2,0.15,0.12,0.13,0.06,0.07,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.14,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.11,0.09,0.08,0.15,0.13,0.03,0.06,0.01,0,0	96.4%