NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	96		Excitement	4.6 [891]		MVP	Shawnelle Scott (DEN): +3.7%
Indiana Pacers	104		Comeback	1.2 [1067]		LVP	Scott Williams (DEN): -8.8%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shawnelle Scott	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	0.00	0.02	6	69%	0.04	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Voshon Lenard	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.06	-0.00	0.03	13	67%	0.06	2	-0.03	4	75%	0.01
Nick Van Exel	0.01	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	26	50%	0.01	0	0.00	8	75%	0.01
Avery Johnson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Bowen	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Calbert Cheaney	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Raef LaFrentz	-0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	13	43%	-0.04	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
James Posey	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	6	29%	-0.07	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
George McCloud	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	11	41%	-0.06	2	-0.02	5	80%	-0.00
Scott Williams	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	8	29%	-0.06	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Al Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.07	11	62%	0.10	4	-0.06	7	57%	-0.01
Jonathan Bender	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.05	-0.00	0.02	6	69%	0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Jalen Rose	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.02	0.00	-0.05	20	52%	0.04	2	-0.01	8	87%	0.03
Jermaine O'Neal	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	17	57%	0.06	2	-0.03	6	83%	0.01
Austin Croshere	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	-0.01	7	47%	0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Jamison Brewer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Foster	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0.01	5	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Miller	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	-0.00	-0.02	12	39%	-0.02	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.01
Jamaal Tinsley	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.09	0.00	-0.04	7	50%	0.04	5	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.5	2.5	29.3	16.5	24.5	2.5	30.4	130.1
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND +36.1%

IND +9.6%

IND +10.2%

DEN -8.4%

IND +2.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	IND	NBA	DEN	IND	NBA
this game	16.0	13.7	15.6	100.0	106.1	102.3
season	16.1	15.3		99.7	101.6
opponent	15.4	15.2		100.9	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	16.2	15.8	18.0	14.1	16.0
IND	13.2	12.5	13.9	15.3	13.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Scott Williams	29	28	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.03	-3	-5	2	17.3	15.5	1.81	13.0	14.0	-0.99
Calbert Cheaney	19	20	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.13	0	-8	8	15.7	16.1	-0.34	15.5	13.2	2.32
Ryan Bowen	29	32	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.05	-3	-5	2	15.6	16.2	-0.61	13.1	14.0	-0.86
Voshon Lenard	46	47	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.25	3	-11	14	14.7	17.2	-2.48	13.8	13.6	0.20
Raef LaFrentz	69	71	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.28	3	-11	14	15.9	16.2	-0.29	14.5	11.6	2.97
Shawnelle Scott	48	49	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.12	-4	-4	0	15.0	17.0	-2.06	13.8	13.6	0.27
James Posey	44	45	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.04	-7	-1	-6	17.3	14.9	2.33	13.6	13.8	-0.19
Avery Johnson	16	16	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	0.08	-12	4	-16	17.3	15.7	1.56	10.9	14.2	-3.31
Nick Van Exel	86	88	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.32	0	-8	8	15.8	17.7	-1.89	14.2	9.3	4.90
George McCloud	76	76	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.26	-3	-5	2	16.0	15.9	0.08	13.9	13.0	0.97

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Al Harrington	73	71	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.21	11	-3	14	13.3	14.9	-1.58	15.7	16.9	-1.23
Reggie Miller	80	80	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.18	9	-1	10	13.7	13.9	-0.23	16.0	16.2	-0.29
Jamaal Tinsley	75	76	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.15	8	0	8	14.0	12.7	1.26	16.5	14.0	2.48
Austin Croshere	34	33	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.09	10	-2	12	13.4	13.9	-0.54	16.2	15.9	0.26
Jonathan Bender	39	37	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.10	7	1	6	13.3	14.0	-0.70	16.2	15.9	0.25
Jalen Rose	77	75	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.25	0	8	-8	14.0	12.8	1.20	16.0	16.1	-0.11
Jermaine O'Neal	77	75	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.25	0	8	-8	14.0	12.8	1.20	16.0	16.1	-0.11
Jamison Brewer	5	4	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.04	-2	10	-12	10.8	13.9	-3.06	14.0	16.1	-2.10
Jeff Foster	30	29	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	0.06	-3	11	-14	14.2	13.5	0.67	15.6	16.2	-0.61

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.53,0.57,0.51,0.58,0.67,0.67,0.67,0.77,0.81,0.78,0.76,0.77,0.78,0.82,0.79,0.74,0.75,0.75,0.76,0.84,0.8,0.86,0.82,0.92,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.94,0.96,0.99,1,0.98,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 81, CLE 101	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.57,0.55,0.56,0.52,0.53,0.55,0.64,0.69,0.73,0.71,0.77,0.8,0.77,0.77,0.84,0.84,0.84,0.75,0.78,0.78,0.73,0.82,0.75,0.78,0.88,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.99,0.94,0.92,0.95,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.6%
CLE 78, WAS 91	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.56,0.5,0.43,0.53,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.54,0.63,0.62,0.64,0.66,0.69,0.67,0.68,0.73,0.76,0.83,0.77,0.75,0.84,0.84,0.8,0.78,0.77,0.79,0.74,0.85,0.9,0.93,0.92,0.93,0.96,0.93,0.96,0.95,0.95,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1	95.5%
NYK 95, DET 98	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.56,0.63,0.56,0.58,0.6,0.73,0.72,0.8,0.81,0.82,0.8,0.81,0.82,0.85,0.79,0.77,0.8,0.78,0.86,0.91,0.94,0.9,0.93,0.95,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,0.97,0.94,0.98,1	95.5%