NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	85		Excitement	6.3 [565]		MVP	Antonio Daniels (SAS): +7.4%
Houston Rockets	75		Comeback	1.0 [1062]		LVP	Kelvin Cato (HOU): -14.6%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antonio Daniels	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.01	0.06	-0.00	7	50%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Tim Duncan	0.06	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.01	-0.02	18	61%	0.12	3	-0.05	5	60%	-0.05
Danny Ferry	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.04	0.04	-0.04	5	43%	0.04	1	-0.00	4	75%	0.01
Amal McCaskill	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cherokee Parks	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charles Smith	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Terry Porter	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0	0.03	0.00	0.03	8	61%	0.03	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Steven Smith	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	8	65%	0.06	4	-0.10	4	75%	0.01
Tony Parker	-0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.09	-0.01	-0.05	6	50%	0.02	4	-0.07	4	75%	-0.00
David Robinson	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	13	43%	-0.04	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Bruce Bowen	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	4	10%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Malik Rose	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.08	-0.02	-0.01	4	0%	-0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Oscar Torres	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.01	-0.00	16	66%	0.17	4	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Griffin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Glen Rice	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	5	30%	-0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Tierre Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	4	62%	0.03	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Willis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.09	-0.01	-0.03	9	22%	-0.07	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Moochie Norris	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.13	-0.02	-0.06	14	36%	-0.01	4	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Walt Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.15	-0.02	-0.06	13	26%	-0.07	3	-0.04	1	0%	-0.03
Kenny Thomas	0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.07	-0.06	0.01	20	47%	-0.04	3	-0.10	5	100%	0.03
Kelvin Cato	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.10	-0.04	0.00	4	0%	-0.08	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	2.4	23.3	15.8	27.0	2.0	32.2	125.8
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +24.2%

SAS +9.7%

HOU -9.8%

SAS +20.0%

SAS +5.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	HOU	NBA	SAS	HOU	NBA
this game	13.3	17.8	15.6	92.4	80.6	102.3
season	15.8	16.8		104.3	100.9
opponent	15.2	15.7		106.4	98.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	12.6	14.8	14.4	11.5	13.3
HOU	19.3	15.2	18.4	18.5	17.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Duncan	71	72	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.15	13	-3	16	13.5	12.7	0.83	18.8	14.4	4.36
David Robinson	74	76	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.03	16	-6	22	13.8	11.3	2.52	18.2	16.2	1.99
Danny Ferry	41	41	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.26	3	7	-4	12.4	14.1	-1.69	17.8	17.8	-0.00
Terry Porter	46	47	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.22	3	7	-4	12.9	13.7	-0.83	17.0	18.6	-1.59
Antonio Daniels	38	39	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.09	6	4	2	14.1	12.7	1.36	18.5	17.3	1.13
Bruce Bowen	45	46	0.25	0.25	0.00	-0.04	10	0	10	14.0	12.7	1.27	18.5	17.2	1.29
Tony Parker	51	51	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.05	5	5	0	12.8	13.9	-1.03	17.7	17.9	-0.22
Steven Smith	55	55	0.13	0.37	-0.25	0.04	3	7	-4	13.7	12.7	0.96	17.6	18.2	-0.59
Amal McCaskill	5	5	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	12	-14	4.8	13.8	-8.99	9.4	18.3	-8.88
Cherokee Parks	5	5	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	12	-14	4.8	13.8	-8.99	9.4	18.3	-8.88
Charles Smith	5	5	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	12	-14	4.8	13.8	-8.99	9.4	18.3	-8.88
Malik Rose	29	28	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	0.12	-5	15	-20	14.5	12.7	1.77	17.3	18.0	-0.75

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eddie Griffin	30	30	0.10	-0.60	0.70	-0.17	9	-19	28	16.3	18.5	-2.17	15.0	12.5	2.52
Tierre Brown	30	28	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.18	6	-16	22	16.4	18.5	-2.08	14.4	12.8	1.51
Kevin Willis	59	59	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.20	1	-11	12	16.7	19.6	-2.90	13.1	13.7	-0.61
Walt Williams	48	48	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.28	3	-13	16	16.9	18.8	-1.97	13.1	13.5	-0.33
Glen Rice	45	44	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	0.07	-13	3	-16	18.8	16.9	1.97	13.5	13.1	0.33
Kelvin Cato	34	33	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.01	-11	1	-12	19.6	16.7	2.90	13.7	13.1	0.61
Moochie Norris	80	79	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.15	-10	0	-10	18.0	16.4	1.65	13.1	14.8	-1.80
Oscar Torres	76	77	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.08	-16	6	-22	18.1	16.4	1.71	13.2	13.9	-0.75
Kenny Thomas	63	62	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.04	-19	9	-28	18.5	16.3	2.17	12.5	15.0	-2.52

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.32,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.29,0.28,0.29,0.22,0.23,0.26,0.29,0.29,0.25,0.29,0.2,0.19,0.18,0.2,0.25,0.33,0.37,0.32,0.23,0.23,0.24,0.3,0.23,0.26,0.22,0.23,0.27,0.32,0.34,0.22,0.34,0.43,0.37,0.3,0.2,0.13,0.14,0.07,0.02,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 102, NYK 96	0.5,0.49,0.42,0.43,0.45,0.38,0.33,0.28,0.32,0.29,0.28,0.24,0.25,0.28,0.24,0.29,0.32,0.38,0.33,0.32,0.28,0.31,0.26,0.27,0.22,0.3,0.34,0.28,0.27,0.33,0.27,0.29,0.28,0.28,0.27,0.29,0.25,0.3,0.3,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.36,0.35,0.27,0.2,0.02,0,0,0	93.7%
PHI 106, UTA 99	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.38,0.33,0.31,0.31,0.3,0.25,0.28,0.23,0.18,0.18,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.17,0.2,0.22,0.21,0.22,0.18,0.15,0.18,0.2,0.25,0.28,0.36,0.27,0.19,0.16,0.25,0.22,0.31,0.26,0.29,0.34,0.22,0.29,0.33,0.23,0.17,0.12,0.13,0.07,0.06,0.06,0,0	93.1%
HOU 111, SAS 98	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.47,0.36,0.36,0.28,0.21,0.26,0.25,0.2,0.21,0.22,0.22,0.3,0.31,0.29,0.29,0.3,0.23,0.2,0.23,0.27,0.3,0.25,0.16,0.21,0.2,0.27,0.24,0.26,0.25,0.38,0.37,0.26,0.25,0.19,0.16,0.3,0.29,0.23,0.22,0.09,0.1,0.02,0,0,0,0	92.9%