NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Indiana Pacers	99		Excitement	5.4 [731]		MVP	Reggie Miller (IND): +13.5%
Denver Nuggets	85		Comeback	1.5 [449]		LVP	James Posey (DEN): -14.2%

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Reggie Miller	0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.09	0.05	0.00	11	65%	0.13	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Jonathan Bender	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.09	0.00	-0.01	4	110%	0.10	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.01
Al Harrington	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.09	0.04	0.04	15	73%	0.17	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Foster	0.05	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.01	4	90%	0.07	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Jalen Rose	0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.06	0.06	-0.04	17	42%	0.03	1	-0.00	4	50%	0.01
Jamison Brewer	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	-0.00	-0.03	2	50%	0.01	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jermaine O'Neal	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.07	-0.02	-0.03	13	42%	-0.05	1	-0.00	7	86%	0.01
Jamaal Tinsley	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.08	-0.02	0.01	7	44%	-0.04	3	-0.07	4	100%	0.01
Austin Croshere	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.10	-0.03	-0.00	5	0%	-0.08	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Raef LaFrentz	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	-0.02	0.03	-0.05	12	50%	0.08	2	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Voshon Lenard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Calbert Cheaney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
George McCloud	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.03	-0.01	15	56%	0.05	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.00
Nick Van Exel	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.01	-0.01	23	41%	-0.01	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.00
Ryan Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.03	6	33%	-0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Avery Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	10	37%	-0.05	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Scott Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.07	-0.04	0.00	6	33%	-0.03	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
James Posey	0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.19	-0.04	-0.08	18	34%	-0.10	3	-0.05	8	87%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.2	1.5	28.2	15.8	22.1	2.4	32.6	123.9
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND +38.1%

IND +2.6%

IND +3.3%

IND +1.6%

IND +4.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	IND	DEN	NBA	IND	DEN	NBA
this game	14.6	16.6	15.6	106.5	92.4	102.3
season	15.3	16.1		101.6	99.7
opponent	15.2	15.4		105.9	100.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
IND	13.7	17.0	16.6	11.8	14.6
DEN	15.1	20.0	16.1	15.9	16.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jermaine O'Neal	70	71	0.80	-0.30	1.11	0.07	25	-11	36	14.3	15.5	-1.22	17.0	15.1	1.93
Jalen Rose	71	71	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.07	16	-2	18	13.9	16.5	-2.60	15.9	19.0	-3.07
Jonathan Bender	48	47	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.10	8	6	2	15.5	13.5	2.03	17.4	15.7	1.71
Reggie Miller	76	75	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.13	6	8	-2	14.8	13.5	1.26	17.3	13.5	3.75
Jamaal Tinsley	67	66	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.02	8	6	2	13.9	16.2	-2.27	15.9	18.3	-2.45
Al Harrington	60	59	0.16	0.34	-0.17	0.02	5	9	-4	13.0	17.4	-4.44	16.1	17.5	-1.49
Jeff Foster	28	28	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.14	0	14	-14	16.3	13.8	2.47	16.4	16.7	-0.33
Jamison Brewer	16	15	0.03	0.47	-0.44	-0.03	2	12	-10	16.4	14.2	2.27	16.2	16.7	-0.46
Austin Croshere	29	28	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	-0.08	0	14	-14	16.6	13.6	2.95	17.2	16.3	0.85

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Voshon Lenard	10	10	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.07	1	-15	16	18.4	16.4	2.03	14.5	14.6	-0.07
Calbert Cheaney	8	8	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.03	-5	-9	4	20.7	16.2	4.56	21.1	13.9	7.18
Avery Johnson	50	51	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.07	-2	-12	10	16.6	16.6	0.03	13.7	15.6	-1.85
Raef LaFrentz	76	77	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.01	-8	-6	-2	15.6	21.2	-5.64	14.0	17.4	-3.48
Nick Van Exel	74	75	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.22	-2	-12	10	17.1	14.4	2.73	16.2	7.9	8.27
James Posey	76	77	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.10	-7	-7	0	15.9	19.7	-3.83	13.9	17.5	-3.55
Scott Williams	41	40	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.09	-12	-2	-10	18.2	15.3	2.95	15.6	13.7	1.91
Ryan Bowen	60	61	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.02	-15	1	-16	16.8	16.1	0.76	14.3	15.0	-0.72
George McCloud	65	66	-0.48	-0.01	-0.47	0.10	-20	6	-26	15.8	18.4	-2.58	13.6	17.0	-3.39

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.54,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.43,0.4,0.35,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.45,0.44,0.4,0.28,0.19,0.26,0.36,0.39,0.3,0.37,0.29,0.2,0.3,0.19,0.21,0.25,0.32,0.22,0.18,0.17,0.25,0.3,0.34,0.29,0.14,0.12,0.09,0.06,0.04,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 119, TOR 106	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.37,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.4,0.29,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.3,0.3,0.34,0.25,0.27,0.3,0.24,0.29,0.17,0.11,0.27,0.26,0.29,0.34,0.3,0.33,0.24,0.04,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0	94.0%
MIL 103, PHI 88	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.35,0.43,0.45,0.38,0.45,0.4,0.37,0.34,0.32,0.24,0.26,0.25,0.3,0.27,0.26,0.23,0.25,0.22,0.21,0.23,0.17,0.18,0.21,0.19,0.28,0.22,0.15,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	93.8%
DAL 113, DET 102	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.4,0.46,0.42,0.36,0.4,0.44,0.37,0.3,0.32,0.31,0.28,0.33,0.25,0.22,0.21,0.23,0.2,0.15,0.16,0.21,0.26,0.28,0.24,0.28,0.36,0.26,0.18,0.21,0.24,0.23,0.1,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.01,0,0,0	93.6%