NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	113		Excitement	6.0 [634]		MVP	Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): +17.1%
Detroit Pistons	102		Comeback	1.1 [926]		LVP	Brandon Jennings (DET): -10.2%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0.17	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.08	0.09	0.00	19	57%	0.19	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Wayne Ellington	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.06	0.06	-0.00	3	87%	0.12	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Vince Carter	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.03	-0.01	13	56%	0.12	2	-0.05	6	83%	0.01
Brandan Wright	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.02	-0.00	7	60%	0.07	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Devin Harris	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.02	-0.01	5	50%	0.07	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Monta Ellis	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.03	0.01	9	60%	0.07	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Samuel Dalembert	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.02	0.01	9	57%	0.05	2	-0.04	3	0%	-0.04
Shane Larkin	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Marion	-0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	12	42%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jose Calderon	-0.03	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	8	61%	0.04	4	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
DeJuan Blair	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	5	40%	-0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Josh Smith	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.16,0.18,0.21,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.18,0.21,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.21,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.16	0.02	0.01	20	73%	0.26	4	-0.10	4	75%	-0.00
Will Bynum	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.03	-0.00	12	61%	0.09	2	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Jonas Jerebko	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.01	0.00	2	71%	0.06	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.02	0.00	5	42%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Greg Monroe	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	13	53%	0.00	2	-0.00	6	50%	-0.03
Rodney Stuckey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	9	39%	-0.01	0	0.00	5	100%	0.03
Andre Drummond	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.02	0.01	6	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.03
Kyle Singler	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	8	39%	0.00	1	-0.04	2	0%	-0.00
Brandon Jennings	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.10	-0.01	-0.00	7	14%	-0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.8	1.8	29.0	15.7	28.4	2.8	31.2	131.6
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +39.3%

DAL +2.4%

DAL +17.0%

DET -7.1%

DET -1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	DET	NBA	DAL	DET	NBA
this game	15.4	14.0	15.1	115.3	104.1	105.2
season	15.3	15.0		109.0	104.7
opponent	15.0	15.0		108.4	107.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	15.1	14.3	16.1	16.2	15.4
DET	15.5	14.5	13.3	12.6	14.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Monta Ellis	75	75	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.14	9	2	7	15.8	14.3	1.46	14.2	13.2	0.98
Samuel Dalembert	49	48	0.36	0.14	0.22	-0.05	14	-3	17	16.0	14.9	1.08	14.9	13.1	1.86
Shawn Marion	60	58	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.10	9	2	7	15.9	14.7	1.24	15.1	12.4	2.69
Vince Carter	60	61	0.35	0.15	0.21	-0.03	13	-2	15	15.3	15.5	-0.18	13.8	14.3	-0.48
Jose Calderon	57	58	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.03	9	2	7	15.6	15.2	0.43	15.0	12.5	2.53
Brandan Wright	28	28	0.22	0.28	-0.05	0.16	2	9	-7	15.6	15.4	0.21	13.7	14.1	-0.31
Wayne Ellington	34	34	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.16	2	9	-7	14.6	15.8	-1.23	13.0	14.5	-1.44
Devin Harris	41	40	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.15	2	9	-7	15.2	15.6	-0.43	12.5	15.0	-2.53
Dirk Nowitzki	65	66	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.17	0	11	-11	15.1	16.1	-1.06	13.4	15.2	-1.76
DeJuan Blair	21	22	-0.08	0.58	-0.67	0.06	-5	16	-21	14.0	15.8	-1.87	12.2	14.5	-2.31

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rodney Stuckey	50	50	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.20	1	-12	13	12.6	15.4	-2.75	15.2	15.6	-0.40
Josh Smith	78	79	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.17	-2	-9	7	13.6	15.2	-1.61	15.4	15.4	-0.00
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	30	29	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.03	-7	-4	-3	13.5	14.2	-0.68	14.8	15.7	-0.94
Andre Drummond	39	41	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.04	-7	-4	-3	14.9	13.3	1.63	15.2	15.6	-0.43
Kyle Singler	68	69	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.15	-4	-7	3	14.2	13.5	0.68	15.7	14.8	0.94
Jonas Jerebko	20	19	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.01	-9	-2	-7	15.2	13.6	1.61	15.4	15.4	0.00
Will Bynum	66	66	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.20	-4	-7	3	13.2	15.5	-2.32	15.1	16.1	-0.96
Brandon Jennings	59	58	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	0.03	-14	3	-17	14.8	12.7	2.08	15.6	15.1	0.50
Greg Monroe	80	79	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.13	-9	-2	-7	14.3	12.3	2.07	15.8	13.9	1.89

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.4,0.46,0.42,0.36,0.4,0.44,0.37,0.3,0.32,0.31,0.28,0.33,0.25,0.22,0.21,0.23,0.2,0.15,0.16,0.21,0.26,0.28,0.24,0.28,0.36,0.26,0.18,0.21,0.24,0.23,0.1,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 98, UTA 93	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.5,0.44,0.47,0.47,0.43,0.4,0.38,0.36,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.47,0.4,0.44,0.35,0.36,0.31,0.28,0.23,0.25,0.18,0.16,0.17,0.15,0.11,0.21,0.29,0.2,0.22,0.27,0.26,0.25,0.22,0.26,0.19,0.33,0.27,0.21,0.12,0.13,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.01,0	94.7%
LAC 93, SAS 81	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.5,0.53,0.53,0.45,0.43,0.39,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.4,0.38,0.29,0.29,0.31,0.32,0.29,0.27,0.33,0.28,0.22,0.2,0.26,0.23,0.15,0.12,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.18,0.19,0.21,0.15,0.12,0.15,0.17,0.23,0.11,0.09,0.04,0.08,0.01,0.06,0.01,0	94.5%
MIL 103, PHI 88	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.35,0.43,0.45,0.38,0.45,0.4,0.37,0.34,0.32,0.24,0.26,0.25,0.3,0.27,0.26,0.23,0.25,0.22,0.21,0.23,0.17,0.18,0.21,0.19,0.28,0.22,0.15,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.5%