NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Utah Jazz	93		Excitement	7.1 [410]		MVP	Ray Allen (MIL): +22.7%
Milwaukee Bucks	104		Comeback	9.5 [288]		LVP	John Stockton (UTA): -12.7%

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Karl Malone	0.03	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.09,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,-0.02,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.02	0.01	25	56%	0.10	3	-0.07	4	75%	-0.03
Donyell Marshall	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.03	-0.00	-0.03	19	50%	0.05	2	-0.04	6	100%	0.05
Scott Padgett	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Ostertag	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.02	-0.01	8	55%	0.04	2	-0.04	6	67%	-0.00
Andrei Kirilenko	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	-0.00	-0.02	5	56%	0.01	2	-0.04	8	100%	0.04
John Crotty	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
DeShawn Stevenson	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	1	25%	-0.02	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Quincy Lewis	-0.10	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	7	27%	-0.10	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
John Stockton	-0.13	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.16,-0.16,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13	-0.08	-0.05	-0.00	9	58%	0.06	5	-0.19	6	100%	0.03

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ray Allen	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.06	0.16	-0.01	12	64%	0.24	1	-0.01	4	75%	-0.01
Glenn Robinson	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.08,-0.1,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0,0,0.08,0.12,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.02	0.13	0.02	24	58%	0.19	3	-0.07	11	91%	0.05
Tim Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,0,0.12,0.16,0.13,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.00	0.04	-0.00	14	52%	0.13	2	-0.10	1	100%	0.01
Michael Redd	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	8	45%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Joel Przybilla	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rafer Alston	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	11	54%	0.01	2	-0.05	4	75%	-0.02
Anthony Mason	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.04	0.02	7	57%	0.04	2	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Ervin Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	6	31%	-0.07	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.9	1.4	28.4	15.5	27.5	2.4	28.6	126.6
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +43.3%

UTA -11.6%

MIL +4.0%

MIL +13.2%

MIL +1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	UTA	MIL	NBA	UTA	MIL	NBA
this game	16.4	15.6	15.6	104.5	114.3	102.3
season	16.1	15.3		102.9	104.7
opponent	16.0	15.1		105.1	101.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
UTA	16.5	15.0	18.6	15.6	16.4
MIL	19.3	16.3	12.7	14.4	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Greg Ostertag	43	45	0.10	-0.60	0.71	0.02	3	-14	17	18.9	14.1	4.77	16.9	14.4	2.52
Quincy Lewis	56	58	0.05	-0.55	0.61	-0.24	10	-21	31	15.3	18.2	-2.89	16.2	14.6	1.58
John Crotty	24	27	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.01	-8	-3	-5	17.8	15.9	1.91	14.6	16.0	-1.40
John Stockton	66	65	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.18	-3	-8	5	15.9	17.8	-1.93	16.1	14.4	1.72
Karl Malone	82	84	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.28	0	-11	11	15.9	22.1	-6.24	15.5	16.4	-0.88
Scott Padgett	7	6	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.09	-10	-1	-9	11.6	16.8	-5.23	14.8	15.7	-0.84
Andrei Kirilenko	57	60	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.01	-13	2	-15	15.9	17.2	-1.24	14.6	17.5	-2.83
Donyell Marshall	78	78	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.17	-13	2	-15	16.3	17.0	-0.69	15.8	14.8	0.99
DeShawn Stevenson	32	32	-0.55	0.05	-0.61	0.06	-21	10	-31	18.2	15.4	2.90	14.4	16.3	-1.86

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anthony Mason	86	83	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.17	15	-4	19	15.5	17.0	-1.47	16.4	16.5	-0.11
Rafer Alston	73	72	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.13	16	-5	21	15.3	16.8	-1.45	16.4	16.2	0.20
Glenn Robinson	77	77	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.23	9	2	7	15.1	18.4	-3.32	16.4	16.7	-0.32
Michael Redd	46	45	0.41	0.09	0.33	-0.05	16	-5	21	14.1	17.1	-3.00	16.5	16.2	0.28
Tim Thomas	45	46	0.37	0.13	0.24	-0.04	14	-3	17	15.3	15.9	-0.60	16.9	15.9	0.99
Ervin Johnson	63	60	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.03	7	4	3	15.5	15.8	-0.25	16.0	17.2	-1.16
Ray Allen	53	51	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.30	-11	22	-33	17.0	13.7	3.32	16.2	16.6	-0.42
Joel Przybilla	12	11	-0.20	0.70	-0.91	0.12	-11	22	-33	22.3	14.6	7.74	16.8	16.3	0.48

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.46,0.45,0.38,0.33,0.32,0.28,0.29,0.24,0.25,0.26,0.3,0.29,0.35,0.35,0.34,0.3,0.3,0.18,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.16,0.15,0.11,0.12,0.21,0.2,0.16,0.14,0.26,0.32,0.62,0.66,0.57,0.67,0.63,0.53,0.54,0.67,0.61,0.63,0.85,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 85, CHH 88	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.31,0.3,0.37,0.37,0.35,0.36,0.34,0.34,0.32,0.36,0.38,0.37,0.39,0.36,0.31,0.31,0.27,0.22,0.22,0.16,0.18,0.22,0.17,0.24,0.16,0.22,0.31,0.27,0.33,0.4,0.5,0.52,0.67,0.62,0.63,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.61,0.63,0.83,0.84,1	92.4%
POR 79, WAS 83	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.49,0.45,0.38,0.39,0.38,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.36,0.38,0.36,0.29,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.31,0.28,0.21,0.22,0.18,0.19,0.21,0.2,0.24,0.29,0.23,0.32,0.28,0.31,0.44,0.55,0.54,0.66,0.62,0.53,0.53,0.59,0.54,0.52,0.69,0.63,0.94,0.99,1	91.0%
ORL 93, CHA 99	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.47,0.53,0.45,0.33,0.32,0.28,0.3,0.35,0.38,0.36,0.27,0.33,0.37,0.32,0.25,0.22,0.2,0.15,0.18,0.12,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.28,0.26,0.37,0.4,0.5,0.38,0.43,0.47,0.63,0.64,0.71,0.73,0.76,0.72,0.94,0.84,1	90.9%