NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	86		Excitement	4.0 [1001]		MVP	Doug Christie (SAC): +7.7%
Sacramento Kings	95		Comeback	1.1 [1010]		LVP	Peja Stojakovic (SAC): -13.9%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Keon Clark	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	11	52%	0.02	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Chris Childs	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	0.00	0.02	4	75%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Eric Montross	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Arroyo	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0	100%	-0.00	1	-0.00	2	100%	-0.00
Alvin Williams	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.00	-0.01	0.02	11	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Morris Peterson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.01	-0.01	8	44%	-0.00	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tracy Murray	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	7	29%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hakeem Olajuwon	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	-0.00	-0.02	10	50%	0.01	3	-0.05	2	50%	-0.00
Vince Carter	-0.04	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	18	55%	0.04	4	-0.08	6	83%	-0.00
Antonio Davis	-0.09	0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.02	-0.01	11	35%	-0.08	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Doug Christie	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.08	0.01	0.01	11	80%	0.12	3	-0.04	3	100%	0.01
Mike Bibby	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	-0.01	-0.00	16	62%	0.10	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Lawrence Funderburke	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.00	-0.02	9	50%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Bobby Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.00	-0.03	12	50%	0.03	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.00
Scot Pollard	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	3	60%	0.01	1	-0.01	4	50%	-0.02
Vlade Divac	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.10	0.01	-0.07	12	50%	0.04	5	-0.06	4	50%	-0.01
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.07	0.00	-0.03	9	22%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Peja Stojakovic	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.20	-0.01	-0.08	12	29%	-0.08	5	-0.06	4	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.3	2.7	25.1	19.3	25.6	3.3	31.5	129.9
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +23.5%

SAC +2.6%

SAC +16.6%

SAC +7.4%

SAC +0.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	SAC	NBA	TOR	SAC	NBA
this game	16.1	14.7	15.6	92.5	101.1	102.3
season	16.2	14.2		100.3	106.6
opponent	15.5	15.6		99.6	100.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	18.4	17.0	14.7	14.6	16.1
SAC	12.3	15.8	14.1	16.7	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Carlos Arroyo	7	7	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.12	4	-13	17	5.7	17.0	-11.26	17.1	14.5	2.66
Eric Montross	4	5	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.12	4	-13	17	4.7	16.6	-11.89	22.0	14.3	7.73
Tracy Murray	31	31	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.24	6	-15	21	14.8	16.8	-1.98	16.9	13.6	3.27
Chris Childs	42	41	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.14	-2	-7	5	15.2	16.9	-1.71	15.6	14.0	1.60
Keon Clark	46	47	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.18	-3	-6	3	14.7	17.6	-2.92	15.5	13.9	1.57
Morris Peterson	59	59	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.03	-9	0	-9	16.4	15.6	0.81	13.5	16.6	-3.06
Hakeem Olajuwon	72	72	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.10	-9	0	-9	17.6	11.2	6.32	15.2	13.0	2.25
Vince Carter	75	76	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.12	-9	0	-9	16.7	13.6	3.12	13.6	19.3	-5.69
Alvin Williams	63	65	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.07	-11	2	-13	17.0	14.2	2.85	14.9	14.3	0.59
Antonio Davis	66	67	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.03	-16	7	-23	16.8	14.5	2.27	13.3	18.2	-4.97

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lawrence Funderburke	56	54	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.16	10	-1	11	15.5	13.5	2.03	15.1	17.6	-2.52
Doug Christie	62	63	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.07	13	-4	17	13.8	16.4	-2.57	16.6	15.2	1.32
Bobby Jackson	45	45	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.18	7	2	5	16.3	13.2	3.04	15.7	16.5	-0.77
Hedo Turkoglu	44	42	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.15	8	1	7	13.7	15.5	-1.84	15.7	16.5	-0.76
Vlade Divac	70	68	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.21	3	6	-3	14.6	14.9	-0.26	16.3	15.8	0.50
Mike Bibby	69	68	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.15	4	5	-1	14.7	14.8	-0.11	15.8	17.1	-1.30
Scot Pollard	60	61	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.10	5	4	1	14.3	15.3	-1.01	17.4	13.8	3.58
Peja Stojakovic	64	64	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.17	-5	14	-19	14.8	14.4	0.41	16.2	16.0	0.24

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.68,0.68,0.74,0.66,0.62,0.67,0.76,0.73,0.76,0.79,0.83,0.86,0.88,0.86,0.9,0.95,0.95,0.92,0.89,0.88,0.84,0.82,0.78,0.89,0.81,0.89,0.94,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 78, MIL 83	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.62,0.66,0.59,0.63,0.63,0.66,0.7,0.74,0.72,0.67,0.65,0.69,0.75,0.75,0.78,0.83,0.81,0.86,0.82,0.87,0.84,0.8,0.85,0.9,0.91,0.88,0.89,0.9,0.84,0.79,0.85,0.87,0.97,0.94,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.9,0.96,0.97,0.95,1	95.5%
NJN 89, DAL 102	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.59,0.67,0.6,0.66,0.72,0.72,0.66,0.71,0.77,0.78,0.79,0.77,0.78,0.82,0.87,0.86,0.88,0.91,0.95,0.92,0.85,0.92,0.89,0.86,0.84,0.8,0.71,0.82,0.87,0.87,0.91,0.95,0.95,0.98,1,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1	95.5%
UTA 101, LAC 115	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.54,0.55,0.59,0.64,0.65,0.65,0.69,0.75,0.74,0.74,0.66,0.65,0.71,0.72,0.68,0.68,0.71,0.8,0.85,0.89,0.93,0.92,0.91,0.92,0.93,0.97,0.92,0.88,0.87,0.86,0.86,0.87,0.96,0.9,0.93,0.95,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98,1,1,1,1,1	95.5%