NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	84		Excitement	5.7 [652]		MVP	Antonio Daniels (SAS): +22.1%
Golden State Warriors	76		Comeback	1.4 [1174]		LVP	Derek Anderson (SAS): -23.0%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antonio Daniels	0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.22,0.24,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.13	0.09	0.00	8	90%	0.24	1	-0.02	5	80%	-0.01
Danny Ferry	0.03	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.00	-0.01	9	56%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0.00	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0	-0.04	0.05	0.00	17	62%	0.16	6	-0.16	11	73%	-0.02
Shawnelle Scott	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terry Porter	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	4	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Sean Elliott	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.01	-0.01	4	25%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Samaki Walker	-0.03	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.06	-0.00	-0.03	5	37%	-0.03	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.00
Malik Rose	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04	-0.07	0.00	-0.03	5	56%	0.01	3	-0.05	6	50%	-0.02
Avery Johnson	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	4	25%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Derek Anderson	-0.23	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23	-0.18	-0.05	0.00	9	20%	-0.11	4	-0.12	2	100%	0.01

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Vonteego Cummings	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.04	0.05	-0.01	18	42%	0.02	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.00
Adam Keefe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	4	44%	0.00	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Paul McPherson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	7	57%	0.03	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Chris Porter	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	12	50%	0.01	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Chris Garner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	2	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Erick Dampier	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	8	42%	-0.02	2	-0.04	3	67%	-0.00
Antawn Jamison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.15	-0.03	-0.04	18	31%	-0.11	1	-0.03	6	83%	0.02
Corie Blount	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.08	-0.05	0.02	11	42%	-0.06	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Adonal Foyle	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.13	-0.05	-0.01	6	31%	-0.07	3	-0.09	4	25%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	300.9	1.7	27.1	15.8	25.3	2.6	33.0	406.4
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +52.3%

SAS +7.8%

GSW -9.3%

GSW -1.0%

SAS +0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	GSW	NBA	SAS	GSW	NBA
this game	16.7	15.3	15.5	94.4	83.5	100.9
season	15.9	15.0		103.4	95.3
opponent	14.9	15.5		104.8	96.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	17.1	14.8	17.7	17.3	16.7
GSW	14.3	15.2	15.0	17.0	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Antonio Daniels	54	55	0.62	-0.12	0.73	0.26	12	-4	16	16.6	16.8	-0.14	16.0	14.4	1.60
Avery Johnson	44	46	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.26	12	-4	16	17.8	15.6	2.15	16.7	13.9	2.81
Malik Rose	43	45	0.60	-0.10	0.69	0.21	13	-5	18	17.8	15.7	2.14	16.7	14.0	2.64
Tim Duncan	85	87	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.21	9	-1	10	16.6	19.2	-2.69	15.8	6.0	9.76
Danny Ferry	63	66	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.18	4	4	0	16.2	17.9	-1.69	14.4	17.8	-3.41
Sean Elliott	26	25	0.21	0.29	-0.09	0.09	4	4	0	17.9	16.2	1.69	17.8	14.4	3.41
Shawnelle Scott	4	4	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.06	-1	9	-10	19.2	16.6	2.69	6.0	15.8	-9.76
Derek Anderson	52	53	-0.08	0.58	-0.67	0.06	-5	13	-18	16.1	17.6	-1.51	13.8	17.5	-3.77
Samaki Walker	46	46	-0.10	0.60	-0.69	0.05	-5	13	-18	15.7	17.8	-2.14	14.0	16.7	-2.64
Terry Porter	28	28	-0.15	0.65	-0.79	-0.06	-3	11	-14	16.2	16.9	-0.64	14.8	15.6	-0.79

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Adonal Foyle	58	56	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.08	1	-9	10	14.7	16.5	-1.81	16.5	16.9	-0.40
Adam Keefe	24	24	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.01	-2	-6	4	15.2	15.4	-0.16	14.8	17.4	-2.59
Paul McPherson	30	28	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.05	-4	-4	0	16.2	14.9	1.35	16.0	17.0	-0.95
Chris Garner	9	8	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.07	-5	-3	-2	15.0	15.4	-0.37	21.5	16.2	5.29
Vonteego Cummings	82	81	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.19	-3	-5	2	15.4	15.0	0.37	16.2	21.5	-5.29
Erick Dampier	61	61	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.16	-5	-3	-2	15.7	14.6	1.14	16.6	16.8	-0.20
Chris Porter	61	61	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.22	-4	-4	0	14.9	16.2	-1.35	17.0	16.0	0.95
Antawn Jamison	67	65	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.26	-6	-2	-4	15.4	15.2	0.16	17.4	14.8	2.59
Corie Blount	63	61	-0.65	0.15	-0.79	-0.29	-12	4	-16	15.6	14.8	0.79	16.9	16.2	0.64

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.49,0.41,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.38,0.44,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.39,0.42,0.39,0.34,0.31,0.29,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.35,0.31,0.36,0.39,0.42,0.52,0.55,0.53,0.37,0.33,0.32,0.34,0.22,0.14,0.08,0.04,0.1,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.05,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 100, DET 93	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.43,0.49,0.32,0.36,0.44,0.35,0.3,0.27,0.34,0.31,0.33,0.25,0.3,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.42,0.48,0.58,0.64,0.56,0.48,0.33,0.25,0.22,0.13,0.1,0.08,0.09,0.1,0.09,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.08,0	94.7%
DEN 95, IND 88	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.48,0.45,0.51,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.35,0.42,0.42,0.33,0.27,0.31,0.32,0.29,0.31,0.28,0.28,0.36,0.27,0.29,0.31,0.28,0.41,0.52,0.65,0.52,0.45,0.41,0.44,0.32,0.26,0.23,0.22,0.14,0.05,0.11,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.04,0	94.3%
NYK 88, MIN 79	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.43,0.39,0.34,0.36,0.4,0.31,0.33,0.3,0.31,0.36,0.3,0.25,0.27,0.4,0.34,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.44,0.37,0.26,0.18,0.19,0.16,0.09,0.05,0.09,0.02,0.01,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.02,0	94.1%