NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	98		Excitement	7.3 [342]		MVP	Paul Pierce (BOS): +31.0%
Boston Celtics	102		Comeback	2.0 [945]		LVP	Mark Blount (BOS): -18.5%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Fred Hoiberg	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.02	0.00	6	64%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Ron Mercer	0.01	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.04,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.07	-0.01	0.05	19	76%	0.23	7	-0.22	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Crawford	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.04	-0.01	0.02	5	83%	0.05	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Bryce Drew	-0.00	0,0,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.02	-0.01	7	57%	0.07	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Dragan Tarlac	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Metta World Peace	-0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.03,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02	0.00	-0.03	0.00	12	54%	0.00	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.02
Brad Miller	-0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06	-0.10	0.01	-0.02	4	36%	-0.03	2	-0.03	6	83%	0.02
Marcus Fizer	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.01	-0.01	3	0%	-0.08	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.04
Elton Brand	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.02	-0.14	0.00	16	56%	-0.07	3	-0.09	4	50%	-0.04

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Paul Pierce	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.3,0.31	0.31	0.07	0.22	-0.02	21	64%	0.39	3	-0.08	14	79%	0.07
Bryant Stith	0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.05	0.07	-0.00	8	63%	0.13	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Walter McCarty	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	3	62%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Vitaly Potapenko	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.02	-0.00	3	67%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Adrian Griffin	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Walker	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.09,-0.09,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.03	-0.01	20	50%	0.13	4	-0.14	2	100%	0.01
Eric Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	3	60%	0.01	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Milt Palacio	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	0.03	10	52%	-0.02	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.01
Randy Brown	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.06	-0.08	-0.00	5	20%	-0.07	1	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Mark Blount	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.10	-0.08	0.01	2	50%	-0.05	4	-0.13	4	50%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.1	2.4	32.3	15.8	22.2	2.3	32.6	130.8
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +22.3%

BOS +20.2%

CHI -4.7%

BOS +8.6%

BOS +3.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	BOS	NBA	CHI	BOS	NBA
this game	15.2	14.9	15.5	103.2	106.2	100.9
season	16.4	15.1		95.2	99.7
opponent	15.4	15.1		101.8	104.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	15.2	13.5	14.5	18.0	15.2
BOS	14.2	15.3	16.1	14.1	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marcus Fizer	18	18	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	0.11	-4	0	-4	12.4	15.9	-3.45	12.4	15.5	-3.04
Dragan Tarlac	22	22	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.10	-1	-3	2	15.0	15.3	-0.37	13.8	15.3	-1.48
Jamal Crawford	37	37	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.16	0	-4	4	14.1	16.0	-1.90	14.4	15.2	-0.79
Metta World Peace	67	67	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.28	1	-5	6	15.6	14.4	1.20	16.1	12.3	3.78
Fred Hoiberg	48	49	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.37	2	-6	8	15.9	14.6	1.28	14.5	15.3	-0.83
Bryce Drew	59	60	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.28	-2	-2	0	15.8	14.3	1.46	15.0	14.8	0.22
Elton Brand	80	81	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.32	-1	-3	2	15.1	15.8	-0.66	15.0	14.6	0.38
Brad Miller	58	59	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.23	-5	1	-6	15.2	15.3	-0.13	15.7	13.7	1.98
Ron Mercer	86	87	-0.58	0.08	-0.65	-0.28	-10	6	-16	15.5	12.6	2.97	14.6	17.6	-2.91

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Antoine Walker	89	88	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.38	5	-1	6	14.9	15.0	-0.09	15.4	13.3	2.11
Paul Pierce	84	85	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.40	2	2	0	15.2	13.0	2.19	15.3	14.6	0.72
Milt Palacio	53	53	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.10	12	-8	20	12.8	17.5	-4.62	13.9	16.9	-2.98
Eric Williams	48	48	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.15	10	-6	16	12.4	17.4	-4.96	14.1	16.4	-2.30
Vitaly Potapenko	36	36	0.35	0.15	0.19	-0.00	12	-8	20	15.0	14.9	0.13	14.2	15.9	-1.73
Mark Blount	42	40	0.11	0.39	-0.27	0.35	-8	12	-20	16.5	13.7	2.73	17.1	13.9	3.30
Bryant Stith	61	57	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.34	-8	12	-20	15.9	13.3	2.61	15.8	14.4	1.37
Randy Brown	43	42	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.28	-8	12	-20	17.5	12.8	4.62	16.9	13.9	2.98
Walter McCarty	22	24	0.01	0.49	-0.48	-0.05	2	2	0	13.7	15.3	-1.60	13.7	15.7	-2.00
Adrian Griffin	2	2	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.03	1	3	-2	14.0	14.9	-0.94	16.0	15.2	0.77

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.47,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.39,0.37,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.5,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.47,0.39,0.38,0.41,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.62,0.66,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.62,0.68,0.69,0.69,0.48,0.52,0.58,0.57,0.57,0.76,0.84,0.79,0.65,0.54,0.76,0.71,0.78,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 94, IND 101	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.48,0.42,0.43,0.41,0.35,0.35,0.42,0.46,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.52,0.58,0.54,0.59,0.58,0.6,0.66,0.7,0.61,0.64,0.71,0.72,0.69,0.73,0.56,0.44,0.46,0.57,0.67,0.57,0.58,0.64,0.59,0.72,0.69,0.78,0.78,0.96,1	92.1%
ATL 90, CLE 97	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.41,0.44,0.43,0.41,0.4,0.37,0.34,0.42,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.36,0.35,0.37,0.36,0.39,0.36,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.58,0.65,0.75,0.73,0.76,0.76,0.68,0.59,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.54,0.57,0.62,0.79,0.85,0.74,0.65,0.72,0.61,0.84,0.85,0.91,1	92.1%
BOS 77, MIL 86	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.47,0.44,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.43,0.4,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.46,0.42,0.38,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.51,0.46,0.5,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.61,0.62,0.68,0.69,0.66,0.56,0.55,0.58,0.66,0.57,0.67,0.68,0.79,0.81,0.9,0.93,0.79,0.77,0.95,1	91.7%