NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	77		Excitement	3.7 [1037]		MVP	Chauncey Billups (MIN): +15.7%
Minnesota Timberwolves	94		Comeback	1.4 [1062]		LVP	Tim Hardaway (MIA): -13.4%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brian Grant	0.00	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.04	-0.01	0.02	23	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	-0.00
A.C. Green	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	5	40%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cedric Ceballos	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	18	46%	0.01	1	-0.01	1	100%	0.00
Ricky Davis	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.06	0.00	-0.06	4	25%	-0.00	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Eddie House	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	8	31%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.02	7	57%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Don MacLean	-0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	0.00	-0.02	4	30%	-0.04	1	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Dan Majerle	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	8	47%	-0.02	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Anthony Carter	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.14	-0.00	-0.04	8	17%	-0.07	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Tim Hardaway	-0.13	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.15	-0.01	-0.03	8	12%	-0.09	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.13	0.00	-0.03	10	77%	0.16	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Anthony Peeler	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.02	-0.01	10	60%	0.08	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Garnett	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	0.00	0.03	19	59%	0.07	2	-0.05	3	67%	0.00
LaPhonso Ellis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	10	36%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
William Avery	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sam Mitchell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.05	0.00	-0.04	7	43%	0.00	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Felipe Lopez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.00	-0.04	0	50%	-0.01	2	-0.02	4	50%	-0.01
Terrell Brandon	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.08	0.01	-0.03	10	24%	-0.05	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Reggie Slater	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	0.01	5	38%	-0.04	1	-0.02	3	33%	-0.03
Wally Szczerbiak	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.10	-0.00	0.01	16	34%	-0.11	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.1	1.7	29.2	16.4	23.4	2.5	25.6	120.9
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +33.4%

MIN +6.9%

MIN +3.8%

MIN +3.6%

MIN +2.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	MIN	NBA	MIA	MIN	NBA
this game	17.5	15.3	15.5	88.5	105.6	100.9
season	16.3	15.0		98.4	102.9
opponent	15.9	16.1		101.7	96.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	17.5	15.4	18.7	18.6	17.5
MIN	13.2	15.2	15.6	17.4	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ricky Davis	23	22	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.05	1	-18	19	17.7	17.4	0.33	17.5	14.5	2.98
Cedric Ceballos	46	47	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.10	0	-17	17	16.7	18.4	-1.65	16.4	14.0	2.47
Eddie House	42	41	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.04	-4	-13	9	16.3	18.6	-2.24	16.6	14.1	2.46
Don MacLean	30	33	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.06	-4	-13	9	17.8	17.3	0.52	13.6	16.2	-2.67
Tim Hardaway	37	41	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.03	-7	-10	3	17.6	17.4	0.22	13.4	16.9	-3.51
Anthony Carter	39	39	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.04	-7	-10	3	16.2	18.6	-2.43	16.5	14.3	2.14
A.C. Green	43	42	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	0.06	-12	-5	-7	18.6	16.4	2.24	17.0	13.7	3.21
Dan Majerle	52	55	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	0.06	-16	-1	-15	17.9	16.9	1.02	14.6	16.3	-1.72
Bruce Bowen	57	60	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	0.06	-16	-1	-15	17.9	16.8	1.11	14.1	17.6	-3.45
Brian Grant	66	65	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	0.13	-20	3	-23	17.9	16.3	1.53	14.6	16.9	-2.27

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anthony Peeler	61	61	0.49	0.01	0.48	-0.12	21	-4	25	15.1	15.7	-0.61	18.1	16.2	1.91
Kevin Garnett	58	57	0.46	0.04	0.41	-0.10	19	-2	21	14.4	16.9	-2.47	17.5	17.4	0.09
Wally Szczerbiak	72	70	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.03	12	5	7	15.4	14.8	0.54	17.8	16.2	1.56
Terrell Brandon	58	54	0.37	0.13	0.23	-0.07	15	2	13	13.8	18.1	-4.31	18.5	15.9	2.60
LaPhonso Ellis	43	43	0.29	0.21	0.07	-0.09	13	4	9	17.4	13.3	4.09	17.7	17.3	0.40
Reggie Slater	51	49	0.24	0.26	-0.03	-0.06	10	7	3	14.1	16.9	-2.81	19.5	14.9	4.52
Chauncey Billups	40	41	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.03	4	13	-9	17.4	13.5	3.84	16.8	18.1	-1.26
Sam Mitchell	25	25	0.12	0.38	-0.27	0.06	2	15	-13	15.4	15.2	0.20	14.8	18.6	-3.84
Felipe Lopez	23	21	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.17	-5	22	-27	16.1	15.0	1.12	15.2	18.2	-3.04
William Avery	7	7	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	20	-23	15.6	15.2	0.34	12.3	17.9	-5.66
Rasho Nesterovic	7	7	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	20	-23	15.6	15.2	0.34	12.3	17.9	-5.66

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.48,0.53,0.51,0.63,0.64,0.67,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.72,0.76,0.76,0.75,0.81,0.76,0.82,0.75,0.82,0.82,0.81,0.73,0.78,0.76,0.73,0.73,0.76,0.81,0.84,0.9,0.92,0.93,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 76, ATL 95	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.63,0.67,0.71,0.66,0.72,0.78,0.8,0.8,0.77,0.87,0.86,0.81,0.82,0.8,0.81,0.76,0.73,0.71,0.72,0.78,0.78,0.81,0.79,0.85,0.87,0.9,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.2%
MIL 87, ATL 117	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.49,0.57,0.61,0.55,0.57,0.63,0.66,0.66,0.68,0.78,0.84,0.85,0.83,0.84,0.81,0.81,0.81,0.79,0.75,0.8,0.79,0.72,0.73,0.75,0.81,0.91,0.91,0.94,0.93,0.96,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.1%
PHI 93, ATL 112	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.63,0.65,0.62,0.68,0.7,0.72,0.66,0.71,0.76,0.78,0.77,0.77,0.74,0.72,0.77,0.78,0.78,0.74,0.72,0.8,0.76,0.81,0.84,0.89,0.85,0.92,0.95,0.96,0.99,0.97,0.96,0.96,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98,1,1,1,1,1	96.0%