NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	86		Excitement	2.8 [1156]		MVP	Austin Croshere (IND): +13.4%
Indiana Pacers	99		Comeback	1.6 [503]		LVP	Jason Caffey (MIL): -6.8%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Thomas	0.04	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.00	-0.03	10	45%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ray Allen	0.03	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.02	0.00	-0.04	14	53%	0.09	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.00
Lindsey Hunter	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.13	-0.01	0.11	16	64%	0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Sam Cassell	0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.09	0.00	-0.10	17	44%	0.08	4	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Jerome Kersey	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rafer Alston	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Przybilla	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Pope	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Scott Williams	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.01	8	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ervin Johnson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	-0.00	-0.02	4	30%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jason Caffey	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	-0.01	-0.02	6	45%	-0.02	2	-0.05	8	87%	0.01

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Austin Croshere	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.08,0.11,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.08	0.01	-0.05	9	85%	0.18	3	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Reggie Miller	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.11	0.00	0.02	18	67%	0.12	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Zan Tabak	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.00	-0.00	7	81%	0.06	2	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Derrick McKey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.00	-0.01	4	80%	0.05	1	-0.00	2	100%	-0.00
Jalen Rose	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.07	0.00	-0.09	17	44%	0.04	3	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Jermaine O'Neal	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.00	12	57%	0.04	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.00
Jeff Foster	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Al Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.05	0.00	-0.04	2	100%	0.02	4	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Sam Perkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.1	2.0	26.2	16.4	21.6	2.4	24.6	117.4
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND +34.6%

MIL -0.6%

IND +6.0%

IND +7.6%

IND +2.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	IND	NBA	MIL	IND	NBA
this game	16.0	16.9	15.5	98.9	112.5	100.9
season	14.9	15.9		105.9	99.3
opponent	15.6	15.8		99.9	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	14.3	18.1	16.5	14.9	16.0
IND	17.0	14.6	14.8	21.8	16.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jerome Kersey	3	4	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.00	0	-13	13	11.3	16.2	-4.82	20.5	16.7	3.75
Joel Przybilla	3	4	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.00	0	-13	13	11.3	16.2	-4.82	20.5	16.7	3.75
Rafer Alston	5	5	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.03	-1	-12	11	11.6	16.3	-4.66	21.2	16.7	4.54
Tim Thomas	54	55	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.22	3	-16	19	15.1	17.5	-2.41	17.4	16.1	1.38
Jason Caffey	46	46	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	0.11	-12	-1	-11	15.4	16.6	-1.22	15.9	18.0	-2.07
Mark Pope	41	40	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.18	-4	-9	5	17.3	14.8	2.47	18.1	15.9	2.25
Lindsey Hunter	50	51	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.29	-1	-12	11	16.5	15.3	1.20	17.6	16.0	1.59
Scott Williams	58	59	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	0.12	-15	2	-17	15.4	17.1	-1.67	16.2	18.5	-2.33
Ervin Johnson	41	40	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.17	-7	-6	-1	17.5	14.6	2.93	18.4	15.7	2.76
Sam Cassell	62	63	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	0.14	-18	5	-23	15.8	16.5	-0.69	15.5	20.6	-5.08
Ray Allen	72	73	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.14	-10	-3	-7	16.4	14.1	2.24	16.4	19.6	-3.23

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jalen Rose	82	83	0.50	0.00	0.50	-0.03	18	-5	23	16.7	19.5	-2.77	15.9	17.7	-1.85
Reggie Miller	78	76	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.01	14	-1	15	16.8	17.9	-1.11	16.2	14.7	1.44
Jermaine O'Neal	76	75	0.41	0.09	0.32	-0.09	17	-4	21	16.7	18.1	-1.35	16.2	14.5	1.73
Derrick McKey	50	48	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.20	4	9	-5	17.5	16.2	1.30	16.6	15.3	1.33
Austin Croshere	30	30	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.23	2	11	-9	17.4	16.7	0.73	16.9	15.5	1.39
Al Harrington	54	54	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.18	3	10	-7	16.9	17.0	-0.13	15.3	17.1	-1.73
Zan Tabak	57	57	0.23	0.27	-0.05	-0.15	13	0	13	17.0	16.8	0.13	15.5	16.9	-1.39
Sam Perkins	7	7	0.13	0.37	-0.24	-0.02	5	8	-3	14.0	17.2	-3.17	18.9	15.7	3.12
Jeff Foster	6	5	-0.06	0.56	-0.63	0.26	-11	24	-35	19.8	16.7	3.13	8.4	16.5	-8.05

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.46,0.43,0.4,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.62,0.64,0.62,0.65,0.69,0.74,0.77,0.76,0.76,0.81,0.86,0.88,0.88,0.91,0.9,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,0.99,0.99,0.95,0.97,1,0.99,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 102, DEN 130	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.5,0.47,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.58,0.57,0.53,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.7,0.66,0.77,0.78,0.81,0.85,0.86,0.91,0.89,0.9,0.93,0.93,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.8%
SAS 67, SEA 105	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.52,0.51,0.46,0.41,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.65,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.67,0.71,0.76,0.77,0.74,0.82,0.86,0.89,0.93,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.97,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.7%
UTA 82, POR 100	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.42,0.41,0.43,0.49,0.55,0.6,0.56,0.57,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.67,0.74,0.77,0.82,0.86,0.91,0.9,0.88,0.86,0.91,0.94,0.95,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.6%