inpredictable
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NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)
Real Time? Pre Game Odds?
Miami Heat 102 Excitement3.1 [1193] MVPJ.R. Smith (DEN): +14.2%
Denver Nuggets 130 Comeback1.2 [595] LVPDwyane Wade (MIA): -4.9%


Miami Heat
PlayerWPAeWPAclWPAgbWPAFGATS%tsWPATOtoWPAFTAFT%ftWPA
Carlos Arroyo0.030,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.030.050.000.02771%0.031-0.0000%0.00
James Jones0.030,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.030.050.000.02475%0.0300.0000%0.00
Erick Dampier0.010,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01-0.02-0.00-0.03357%0.042-0.0310%-0.01
Chris Bosh0.000,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,00.07-0.000.071760%0.052-0.046100%0.01
Joel Anthony0.000,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,00.020.000.02167%0.0000.0010%0.00
Mario Chalmers-0.010,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.010.040.010.061070%0.053-0.0600%0.00
Eddie House-0.020,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.020.07-0.000.091165%-0.0210.001100%0.00
Juwan Howard-0.030,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03-0.02-0.000.01839%-0.0300.00250%0.00
Zydrunas Ilgauskas-0.040,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04-0.05-0.00-0.0220%-0.011-0.0200%0.00
Mike Miller-0.040,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04-0.10-0.00-0.06729%-0.023-0.0200%0.00
Dwyane Wade-0.050,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05-0.13-0.01-0.091936%-0.003-0.05729%-0.05

Denver Nuggets
PlayerWPAeWPAclWPAgbWPAFGATS%tsWPATOtoWPAFTAFT%ftWPA
J.R. Smith0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.140.140.210.000.071782%0.142-0.0000%0.00
Ty Lawson0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.080.080.040.01-0.031159%0.0810.0000%0.00
Nene0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.060.060.140.000.08789%0.061-0.005100%0.01
Arron Afflalo0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.040.040.08-0.000.04867%0.0400.00560%-0.01
Melvin Ely0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.010.010.030.000.03762%0.031-0.022100%0.00
Kenyon Martin0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,00.000.03-0.000.02560%0.0000.0000%0.00
Carmelo Anthony0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,00.000.020.000.021752%0.012-0.01667%-0.01
Shelden Williams0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,00.000.000.000.00250%0.0000.0000%0.00
Gary Forbes0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,00.00-0.030.00-0.03337%0.0010.00250%-0.00
Al Harrington0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01-0.010.020.000.03956%-0.011-0.0000%0.00
Chauncey Billups0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01-0.01-0.000.000.01643%-0.0100.002100%0.00
Game Length Report (minutes)

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Total
this game23.93.431.619.425.32.827.2133.6
league avg26.22.430.316.427.22.433.9140.0
Win Probability Added by the Four Factors
(aka How the Game Was Won)
victory
100% WP
start
50% WP
DEN +20.1%
DEN +4.7%
DEN +4.1%
DEN +20.1%
DEN +1.1%
Pace and Efficiency Report

seconds / possessionpoints / 100 possessions
all possessionsMIADENNBAMIADENNBA
this game15.813.315.5103.0131.3105.7
season16.014.3109.0110.7
opponent15.515.6106.1102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

Q1Q2Q3Q4Total
MIA15.416.315.915.715.8
DEN13.415.012.912.013.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
possessionswin probabilitypointspace (offense)pace (defense)
playeroffensedefenseonoffdiffcl+/-onoffdiffonoffdiffonoffdiff
James Jones2828-0.05-0.450.400.21-9-191017.415.22.1614.812.72.10
Joel Anthony1819-0.08-0.420.35-0.05-1-272614.716.1-1.4014.313.01.28
Carlos Arroyo3838-0.12-0.380.270.32-15-13-217.015.01.9814.012.91.12
Eddie House3333-0.12-0.380.25-0.04-3-252216.915.31.6113.913.00.98
Juwan Howard3939-0.13-0.370.25-0.07-2-262414.916.4-1.4211.914.2-2.24
Zydrunas Ilgauskas2727-0.15-0.350.200.09-8-201216.515.50.9814.912.72.16
Erick Dampier5453-0.28-0.22-0.050.28-19-9-1015.815.80.0612.114.6-2.52
Chris Bosh6060-0.37-0.13-0.250.39-26-2-2416.414.91.4214.211.92.24
Dwyane Wade6666-0.38-0.12-0.250.36-25-3-2215.316.9-1.6113.013.9-0.98
Mario Chalmers6161-0.38-0.12-0.27-0.00-13-15215.017.0-1.9812.914.0-1.12
Mike Miller7171-0.45-0.05-0.400.11-19-9-1015.217.4-2.1612.714.8-2.10

Denver Nuggets
possessionswin probabilitypointspace (offense)pace (defense)
playeroffensedefenseonoffdiffcl+/-onoffdiffonoffdiffonoffdiff
Carmelo Anthony60610.340.160.17-0.402532213.712.61.1915.815.8-0.01
Ty Lawson50500.340.160.17-0.021216-413.213.4-0.2115.915.80.10
J.R. Smith58570.330.170.170.011117-612.814.0-1.2714.917.0-2.11
Arron Afflalo54540.330.170.16-0.312261613.912.51.4116.814.62.26
Al Harrington44440.300.200.10-0.021117-613.313.20.1015.616.0-0.39
Nene51510.280.220.06-0.312081213.712.80.8716.415.21.16
Chauncey Billups55560.270.230.04-0.352171413.213.3-0.1015.616.0-0.38
Melvin Ely48480.220.28-0.06-0.02820-1212.813.7-0.8715.216.4-1.16
Kenyon Martin35350.100.40-0.31-0.311414013.813.00.8417.015.21.80
Gary Forbes26260.000.50-0.500.06-230-3212.013.7-1.6915.715.9-0.21
Shelden Williams14130.000.50-0.500.06-230-3212.313.4-1.1613.916.1-2.17


Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.5,0.47,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.58,0.57,0.53,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.7,0.66,0.77,0.78,0.81,0.85,0.86,0.91,0.89,0.9,0.93,0.93,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
GameSimilarity Score
SAC 84, ORL 1000.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.52,0.5,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.53,0.64,0.71,0.67,0.65,0.65,0.75,0.71,0.79,0.82,0.84,0.9,0.89,0.93,0.96,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,197.6%
CHA 93, ATL 1200.5,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.53,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.54,0.58,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.69,0.7,0.79,0.8,0.82,0.87,0.89,0.91,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,197.1%
WAS 72, SAS 940.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.69,0.63,0.73,0.8,0.84,0.83,0.86,0.93,0.95,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.95,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,197.1%