NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	82		Excitement	9.4 [82]		MVP	Nazr Mohammed (ATL): +7.5%
Denver Nuggets	85		Comeback	1.3 [1038]		LVP	Lorenzen Wright (ATL): -53.0%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nazr Mohammed	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	-0.01	0.07	-0.01	8	55%	0.10	1	-0.02	4	25%	-0.05
DerMarr Johnson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	5	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hanno Mottola	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	5	40%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brevin Knight	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	6	43%	-0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Dion Glover	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.11,-0.13,-0.16,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.06	-0.05	0.01	6	43%	-0.06	2	-0.06	2	0%	-0.06
Chris Crawford	-0.17	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.09	-0.08	0.00	11	42%	-0.09	3	-0.08	4	75%	0.00
Jason Terry	-0.27	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.05,-0.04,-0.27	-0.04	-0.23	0.00	17	52%	-0.07	3	-0.20	8	100%	0.14
Alan Henderson	-0.43	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.29,-0.43	-0.12	-0.31	0.01	11	29%	-0.34	2	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01
Lorenzen Wright	-0.53	0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.15,-0.15,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.16,-0.11,-0.11,-0.18,-0.24,-0.39,-0.53	-0.18	-0.34	0.01	19	26%	-0.45	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mark Strickland	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Goldwire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	2	75%	0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Raef LaFrentz	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.01	-0.00	9	44%	0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	2	62%	-0.01	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.02
Voshon Lenard	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.04	0.00	10	50%	-0.02	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
James Posey	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.04,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	9	50%	0.07	2	-0.13	2	100%	0.01
Kevin Willis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.10	-0.00	-0.02	11	33%	-0.05	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	0.00	-0.07	0.01	13	56%	-0.03	1	-0.06	8	62%	-0.06
George McCloud	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.11	-0.04	-0.01	4	21%	-0.11	1	-0.03	6	50%	-0.04
Nick Van Exel	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.12,-0.08,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.3	-0.30	-0.16	-0.14	-0.00	16	44%	-0.15	5	-0.15	9	67%	-0.11

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.3	1.8	27.0	14.6	25.3	2.7	35.1	129.8
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +96.1%

ATL -9.9%

ATL -37.2%

DEN +0.7%

DEN +0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	DEN	NBA	ATL	DEN	NBA
this game	14.9	14.2	15.5	82.0	86.7	100.9
season	15.4	15.2		96.0	101.4
opponent	15.2	15.1		104.1	101.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	14.4	14.5	13.3	18.0	14.9
DEN	12.3	13.2	16.3	15.5	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Alan Henderson	70	69	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.32	6	-9	15	14.7	15.4	-0.65	14.2	14.1	0.10
DerMarr Johnson	26	26	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.12	-3	0	-3	16.5	14.4	2.15	12.8	14.7	-1.81
Brevin Knight	79	78	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.31	3	-6	9	14.3	17.2	-2.89	13.8	15.4	-1.60
Nazr Mohammed	44	42	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.09	-5	2	-7	14.5	15.3	-0.81	14.9	13.6	1.28
Lorenzen Wright	56	56	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.32	2	-5	7	15.3	14.5	0.81	13.6	14.9	-1.28
Chris Crawford	74	72	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.30	0	-3	3	14.4	16.5	-2.15	14.7	12.8	1.81
Hanno Mottola	30	29	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.09	-9	6	-15	15.4	14.7	0.65	14.1	14.2	-0.10
Jason Terry	91	89	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.36	-1	-2	1	15.2	11.6	3.69	14.2	14.2	-0.05
Dion Glover	30	29	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.15	-8	5	-13	15.5	14.7	0.84	15.1	13.8	1.27

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ryan Bowen	35	38	0.60	-0.10	0.69	0.48	4	-1	5	12.7	15.0	-2.36	13.7	15.6	-1.89
Nick Van Exel	85	86	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.37	5	-2	7	14.7	10.7	4.01	15.1	13.5	1.64
Kevin Willis	69	70	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.41	2	1	1	14.2	14.2	-0.05	14.4	16.0	-1.60
Antonio McDyess	75	76	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.28	3	0	3	14.7	12.3	2.39	15.7	12.3	3.39
George McCloud	39	40	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.04	9	-6	15	14.5	14.0	0.52	15.9	14.3	1.61
James Posey	63	64	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.38	-7	10	-17	14.2	14.1	0.09	14.7	15.2	-0.49
Raef LaFrentz	47	50	0.12	0.38	-0.27	0.15	-1	4	-5	13.3	15.0	-1.72	14.8	15.0	-0.26
Mark Strickland	5	4	0.05	0.45	-0.40	-0.01	2	1	1	14.4	14.2	0.24	9.5	15.1	-5.64
Anthony Goldwire	13	14	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	0.05	-2	5	-7	10.7	14.7	-4.01	13.5	15.1	-1.64
Voshon Lenard	59	58	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	-0.08	0	3	-3	14.8	13.2	1.65	15.2	14.5	0.71

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.65,0.69,0.73,0.7,0.72,0.66,0.66,0.71,0.71,0.72,0.75,0.75,0.77,0.77,0.73,0.78,0.69,0.66,0.64,0.61,0.64,0.55,0.65,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.74,0.79,0.76,0.73,0.74,0.76,0.73,0.69,0.79,0.67,0.84,1
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 100, ATL 106	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.57,0.63,0.7,0.76,0.76,0.78,0.75,0.72,0.74,0.75,0.73,0.7,0.72,0.71,0.76,0.8,0.75,0.67,0.8,0.71,0.61,0.55,0.42,0.45,0.52,0.59,0.55,0.52,0.6,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.79,0.83,0.79,0.8,0.76,0.78,0.62,0.71,0.68,0.92,1	93.4%
TOR 87, PHI 88	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.63,0.72,0.74,0.75,0.7,0.68,0.6,0.55,0.56,0.63,0.65,0.71,0.69,0.69,0.77,0.75,0.73,0.71,0.66,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.59,0.59,0.48,0.56,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.63,0.53,0.64,0.71,0.73,0.74,0.84,0.85,0.93,1	93.1%
WAS 85, TOR 87	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.56,0.56,0.64,0.66,0.7,0.71,0.73,0.73,0.72,0.66,0.69,0.66,0.69,0.63,0.66,0.71,0.69,0.72,0.73,0.64,0.58,0.55,0.63,0.7,0.7,0.64,0.58,0.55,0.62,0.63,0.48,0.6,0.54,0.7,0.79,0.83,0.68,0.71,0.76,0.87,0.85,0.78,0.76,0.84,1	93.1%