NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	100		Excitement	7.7 [300]		MVP	Chris Mullin (GSW): +12.4%
Atlanta Hawks	106		Comeback	1.4 [1156]		LVP	Latrell Sprewell (GSW): -29.8%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Mullin	0.12	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.13	0.02	0.03	11	100%	0.26	5	-0.13	2	100%	0.02
Joe Smith	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.19,0.02,0.02	0.08	-0.05	0.01	16	61%	0.02	0	0.00	9	67%	0.01
Scott Burrell	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	5	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew DeClercq	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Bimbo Coles	-0.03	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	5	60%	0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Felton Spencer	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	5	42%	-0.01	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Mark Price	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06	-0.00	-0.06	0.00	8	55%	-0.02	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.04
Todd Fuller	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.01	1	25%	-0.07	1	-0.02	6	33%	-0.06
Latrell Sprewell	-0.30	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.17,-0.28,-0.3	-0.07	-0.21	0.01	14	55%	0.05	5	-0.34	5	80%	0.01

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Henry James	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.12	0.01	0.02	6	93%	0.11	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Steven Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11	0.11	0.02	0.08	-0.02	15	58%	0.16	2	-0.05	6	50%	-0.04
Christian Laettner	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.07	0.04	0.02	16	66%	0.23	2	-0.14	6	83%	0.02
Mookie Blaylock	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07	0.07	0.07	0.01	0.01	12	69%	0.14	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.00
Eldridge Recasner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	2	125%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Alan Henderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.01	3	70%	0.01	3	-0.07	4	25%	-0.03
Tyrone Corbin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11	-0.11	-0.10	-0.02	-0.02	7	33%	-0.05	2	-0.05	4	25%	-0.03
Dikembe Mutombo	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.23,-0.23	-0.23	-0.12	-0.09	0.02	11	39%	-0.14	3	-0.09	6	50%	-0.06

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.1	2.4	25.8	15.6	25.5	2.3	40.6	136.3
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +37.5%

GSW -13.0%

GSW -6.3%

ATL +29.1%

ATL +2.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	ATL	NBA	GSW	ATL	NBA
this game	16.0	15.7	15.6	107.5	119.1	104.4
season	15.0	16.4		104.4	105.3
opponent	16.0	15.4		100.3	109.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	18.3	14.4	17.9	13.7	16.0
ATL	14.2	16.3	17.2	15.1	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Scott Burrell	11	12	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.08	2	-8	10	15.3	16.0	-0.78	20.1	15.0	5.08
Bimbo Coles	38	36	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.12	-8	2	-10	18.1	14.5	3.63	15.0	16.1	-1.10
Felton Spencer	54	52	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.24	3	-9	12	16.8	14.8	1.96	16.6	14.4	2.28
Andrew DeClercq	16	17	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.08	-3	-3	0	14.4	16.3	-1.91	16.4	15.5	0.90
Joe Smith	82	78	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.29	0	-6	6	16.2	14.0	2.22	16.0	13.4	2.65
Todd Fuller	31	28	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.09	-10	4	-14	15.9	16.0	-0.08	14.1	16.4	-2.30
Mark Price	58	56	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.40	0	-6	6	13.9	19.4	-5.52	15.3	16.3	-0.93
Chris Mullin	84	79	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.25	-8	2	-10	16.2	14.1	2.04	15.1	20.4	-5.31
Latrell Sprewell	91	87	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.32	-6	0	-6	15.9	20.5	-4.64	15.6	18.5	-2.88

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tyrone Corbin	56	56	0.59	-0.09	0.69	0.45	5	1	4	16.3	14.7	1.57	15.2	17.1	-1.91
Dikembe Mutombo	80	84	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.26	10	-4	14	15.5	17.7	-2.20	16.3	12.6	3.77
Mookie Blaylock	81	85	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.26	9	-3	12	15.0	22.2	-7.21	16.1	14.7	1.32
Christian Laettner	68	71	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.29	7	-1	8	16.7	12.4	4.26	17.1	12.2	4.94
Steven Smith	82	85	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.34	3	3	0	15.8	14.6	1.21	15.9	16.2	-0.32
Eldridge Recasner	18	19	0.05	0.45	-0.40	-0.01	2	4	-2	15.8	15.7	0.12	13.5	16.6	-3.05
Alan Henderson	27	28	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.15	-7	13	-20	15.4	15.8	-0.40	13.3	17.1	-3.82
Henry James	33	37	-0.09	0.59	-0.69	-0.12	1	5	-4	14.7	16.3	-1.57	17.1	15.2	1.91

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.57,0.63,0.7,0.76,0.76,0.78,0.75,0.72,0.74,0.75,0.73,0.7,0.72,0.71,0.76,0.8,0.75,0.67,0.8,0.71,0.61,0.55,0.42,0.45,0.52,0.59,0.55,0.52,0.6,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.79,0.83,0.79,0.8,0.76,0.78,0.62,0.71,0.68,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 82, DEN 85	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.65,0.69,0.73,0.7,0.72,0.66,0.66,0.71,0.71,0.72,0.75,0.75,0.77,0.77,0.73,0.78,0.69,0.66,0.64,0.61,0.64,0.55,0.65,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.74,0.79,0.76,0.73,0.74,0.76,0.73,0.69,0.79,0.67,0.84,1	93.4%
SEA 89, PHI 92	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.59,0.6,0.6,0.67,0.71,0.75,0.69,0.68,0.7,0.68,0.68,0.71,0.67,0.61,0.63,0.68,0.73,0.66,0.64,0.59,0.67,0.59,0.58,0.48,0.55,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.64,0.7,0.77,0.79,0.8,0.73,0.79,0.81,0.67,0.81,0.64,0.84,0.85,1	92.2%
OKC 100, GSW 108	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.63,0.59,0.59,0.6,0.65,0.69,0.71,0.66,0.7,0.68,0.68,0.67,0.6,0.7,0.72,0.78,0.82,0.79,0.7,0.78,0.66,0.6,0.67,0.48,0.42,0.48,0.65,0.62,0.49,0.63,0.71,0.66,0.61,0.53,0.57,0.63,0.73,0.76,0.87,0.8,0.85,0.78,0.96,1	91.6%