NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Wizards	85		Excitement	9.1 [75]		MVP	Kevin Willis (TOR): +21.3%
Toronto Raptors	87		Comeback	3.0 [243]		LVP	Doug Christie (TOR): -40.5%

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mitch Richmond	0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.16,-0.21,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.16,-0.12,-0.07,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.03,-0.09,-0.1,0.08	-0.06	0.14	-0.00	21	53%	0.33	4	-0.25	11	91%	0.03
Terry Davis	0.04	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	6	67%	0.04	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Chris Whitney	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff McInnis	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Calbert Cheaney	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	10	50%	0.07	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Tim Legler	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Otis Thorpe	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.01,-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	5	40%	0.03	2	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Juwan Howard	-0.14	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.09,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.11	-0.03	0.00	16	35%	-0.08	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Rod Strickland	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.08,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.18,-0.18,-0.15	-0.11	-0.04	0.00	12	47%	-0.06	3	-0.09	10	60%	-0.02
Ben Wallace	-0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.15	-0.08	-0.04	4	17%	-0.07	3	-0.12	4	50%	-0.04

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Willis	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.02,0.21	0.21	0.07	0.16	0.02	14	61%	0.21	0	0.00	8	100%	0.06
Charles Oakley	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.00	0.05	-0.00	6	57%	0.07	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.06
Dee Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	10	55%	0.05	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Alvin Williams	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Stewart	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	1	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
John Thomas	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	5	20%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vince Carter	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.12,0.06,0.01,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	17	47%	0.03	2	-0.10	4	50%	-0.04
John Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.12	-0.01	-0.02	7	39%	-0.01	4	-0.11	4	75%	0.00
Tracy McGrady	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.10	-0.06	-0.02	7	19%	-0.13	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Doug Christie	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.08,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.27,-0.4	-0.40	-0.16	-0.27	-0.02	16	39%	-0.31	5	-0.10	4	75%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	2.6	27.9	18.8	27.2	2.7	47.0	151.4
league avg	26.9	3.0	42.0	16.0	26.3	2.2	45.7	163.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS -52.2%

TOR +29.3%

TOR +43.8%

TOR +36.4%

WAS -7.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	TOR	NBA	WAS	TOR	NBA
this game	15.0	15.9	15.8	91.4	93.5	99.6
season	15.5	15.6		98.8	99.0
opponent	15.9	15.9		101.2	101.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
WAS	17.9	13.4	16.3	12.8	15.0
TOR	12.9	16.0	17.2	17.7	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Calbert Cheaney	54	50	0.13	-0.63	0.76	-0.31	15	-17	32	13.9	16.7	-2.80	16.8	14.9	1.98
Chris Whitney	1	2	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.09	1	-3	4	4.0	15.2	-11.16	0.0	16.3	-16.27
Jeff McInnis	13	14	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.01	-2	0	-2	17.1	14.7	2.36	14.0	16.3	-2.27
Terry Davis	22	24	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.10	1	-3	4	16.1	14.7	1.43	16.0	15.9	0.05
Tim Legler	16	18	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.28	1	-3	4	17.0	14.6	2.36	14.5	16.3	-1.77
Ben Wallace	54	52	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.15	-5	3	-8	15.4	14.6	0.82	16.8	14.9	1.92
Otis Thorpe	67	69	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.19	-4	2	-6	16.2	12.2	4.01	14.9	18.8	-3.92
Rod Strickland	82	80	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.43	0	-2	2	14.7	17.6	-2.94	16.2	14.2	2.06
Juwan Howard	77	77	-0.57	0.07	-0.63	-0.30	-9	7	-16	14.4	17.9	-3.50	16.5	13.3	3.16
Mitch Richmond	79	79	-0.57	0.07	-0.65	-0.34	-8	6	-14	14.7	16.9	-2.22	15.9	16.0	-0.09

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dee Brown	60	59	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.72	-4	6	-10	16.1	15.6	0.45	14.3	16.3	-1.97
Vince Carter	71	71	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.33	7	-5	12	16.6	13.6	3.00	14.9	15.5	-0.54
Charles Oakley	79	78	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.28	8	-6	14	15.6	18.0	-2.44	14.5	17.7	-3.13
Doug Christie	53	55	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.31	1	1	0	16.6	15.1	1.49	13.9	16.7	-2.82
Kevin Willis	66	68	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.18	4	-2	6	15.9	16.0	-0.05	15.3	14.3	1.04
John Wallace	27	26	0.11	0.39	-0.27	0.17	-2	4	-6	17.0	15.5	1.46	15.0	15.1	-0.06
Tracy McGrady	37	36	0.08	0.42	-0.35	0.13	-2	4	-6	15.1	16.5	-1.40	16.8	13.9	2.83
Michael Stewart	13	12	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.02	1	1	0	14.0	16.2	-2.24	14.0	15.2	-1.20
Alvin Williams	11	11	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	0.16	-6	8	-14	10.2	16.7	-6.51	16.1	14.9	1.19
John Thomas	48	49	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	-0.10	3	-1	4	16.5	15.3	1.19	16.6	13.3	3.23

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.56,0.56,0.64,0.66,0.7,0.71,0.73,0.73,0.72,0.66,0.69,0.66,0.69,0.63,0.66,0.71,0.69,0.72,0.73,0.64,0.58,0.55,0.63,0.7,0.7,0.64,0.58,0.55,0.62,0.63,0.48,0.6,0.54,0.7,0.79,0.83,0.68,0.71,0.76,0.87,0.85,0.78,0.76,0.84,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 88, PHX 94	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.62,0.66,0.68,0.73,0.73,0.68,0.66,0.68,0.72,0.79,0.75,0.76,0.74,0.75,0.78,0.72,0.64,0.61,0.58,0.65,0.66,0.75,0.67,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.56,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.66,0.62,0.83,0.88,0.9,0.76,0.83,0.81,0.79,0.77,0.92,1	93.2%
ATL 82, DEN 85	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.65,0.69,0.73,0.7,0.72,0.66,0.66,0.71,0.71,0.72,0.75,0.75,0.77,0.77,0.73,0.78,0.69,0.66,0.64,0.61,0.64,0.55,0.65,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.74,0.79,0.76,0.73,0.74,0.76,0.73,0.69,0.79,0.67,0.84,1	93.1%
NYK 98, UTA 103	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.5,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.65,0.71,0.75,0.77,0.78,0.72,0.69,0.69,0.6,0.68,0.64,0.64,0.66,0.7,0.59,0.58,0.62,0.66,0.75,0.7,0.64,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.59,0.52,0.48,0.5,0.6,0.62,0.71,0.77,0.64,0.76,0.87,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.98,1	92.7%