NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Wizards	101		Excitement	7.6 [303]		MVP	Mitch Richmond (WAS): +28.2%
Denver Nuggets	98		Comeback	1.6 [150]		LVP	Nick Van Exel (DEN): -31.6%

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mitch Richmond	0.28	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.28	0.11	0.19	0.01	16	74%	0.43	3	-0.15	7	71%	-0.01
Chris Whitney	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15	0.06	0.09	0.00	7	94%	0.26	4	-0.12	3	100%	0.05
Michael Smith	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.02	0.07	-0.01	3	67%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jahidi White	0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.00	0.02	4	70%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Gerard King	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Tyrone Nesby	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	-0.03	7	25%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Popeye Jones	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	4	25%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Richard Hamilton	-0.10	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	19	43%	-0.06	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.03
Juwan Howard	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.08	-0.04	-0.00	21	44%	-0.04	2	-0.08	6	83%	0.01

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.13	0.13	0.12	0.03	0.02	20	63%	0.13	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Ryan Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.04	0.05	0.00	2	100%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Voshon Lenard	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.00	-0.00	9	65%	0.09	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.02
Kevin Willis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.06	0.05	-0.02	7	29%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mark Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.02	-0.00	3	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.01
James Posey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	4	80%	0.05	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Robert Pack	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Raef LaFrentz	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.03	0.00	17	46%	-0.04	0	0.00	3	100%	0.03
George McCloud	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	1	25%	-0.04	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Nick Van Exel	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.17,-0.2,-0.15,-0.15,-0.21,-0.21,-0.27,-0.27,-0.32	-0.32	-0.11	-0.21	0.00	17	44%	-0.12	5	-0.19	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.5	2.4	26.4	15.6	23.4	2.6	33.0	127.9
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +39.5%

WAS +11.6%

WAS +9.2%

DEN -10.2%

DEN -0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	DEN	NBA	WAS	DEN	NBA
this game	15.8	16.0	15.5	111.0	108.9	100.9
season	15.2	15.2		98.6	101.4
opponent	15.2	15.2		104.1	105.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
WAS	13.2	14.9	15.9	20.0	15.8
DEN	15.1	17.9	14.8	16.8	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mitch Richmond	77	76	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.42	7	-4	11	15.3	18.4	-3.05	16.4	14.1	2.34
Richard Hamilton	80	78	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.40	4	-1	5	15.8	15.4	0.47	16.1	16.0	0.05
Juwan Howard	76	74	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.43	2	1	1	15.5	17.1	-1.54	16.1	15.8	0.28
Chris Whitney	67	67	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.42	2	1	1	15.5	16.6	-1.15	16.4	15.0	1.40
Michael Smith	38	38	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.34	1	2	-1	18.0	14.2	3.77	16.3	15.8	0.47
Popeye Jones	36	37	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.00	9	-6	15	14.1	16.9	-2.85	14.5	17.1	-2.60
Tyrone Nesby	41	41	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	0.01	-1	4	-5	16.3	15.3	1.02	15.4	16.6	-1.20
Gerard King	8	8	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	-0.02	-3	6	-9	19.4	15.4	3.94	12.9	16.4	-3.48
Jahidi White	32	31	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	0.05	-6	9	-15	15.7	15.8	-0.09	17.4	15.3	2.10

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Posey	50	51	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	0.00	-2	-1	-1	16.9	15.0	1.84	15.7	15.9	-0.21
Kevin Willis	39	38	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	0.09	-6	3	-9	15.8	16.2	-0.44	14.7	16.6	-1.88
Mark Strickland	21	20	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.03	-3	0	-3	14.3	16.6	-2.29	17.0	15.4	1.63
Voshon Lenard	62	63	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.24	4	-7	11	15.4	17.5	-2.11	14.9	17.9	-3.00
Robert Pack	10	10	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	0.03	-6	3	-9	18.1	15.8	2.31	14.7	15.9	-1.21
Ryan Bowen	18	18	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.20	-1	-2	1	17.2	15.8	1.40	19.6	14.8	4.78
Nick Van Exel	80	81	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.44	3	-6	9	15.8	18.1	-2.31	15.9	14.7	1.21
Antonio McDyess	55	57	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.42	1	-4	5	16.4	15.5	0.91	15.9	15.5	0.40
Raef LaFrentz	65	67	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.47	2	-5	7	16.5	15.0	1.50	15.9	15.5	0.44
George McCloud	50	50	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.39	-7	4	-11	15.6	16.5	-0.91	15.7	15.9	-0.27

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.59,0.57,0.51,0.46,0.52,0.47,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.35,0.37,0.42,0.44,0.36,0.39,0.44,0.37,0.4,0.34,0.42,0.36,0.39,0.46,0.52,0.38,0.37,0.33,0.28,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.38,0.32,0.3,0.29,0.53,0.38,0.21,0.1,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 89, DET 84	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.45,0.42,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.44,0.39,0.44,0.42,0.49,0.58,0.58,0.48,0.45,0.36,0.33,0.32,0.41,0.28,0.34,0.37,0.29,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.32,0.21,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.15,0.1,0.16,0	92.6%
ORL 92, TOR 88	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.43,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.43,0.39,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.35,0.37,0.32,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.44,0.37,0.34,0.31,0.31,0.3,0.45,0.58,0.59,0.48,0.37,0.33,0.25,0.3,0.3,0.34,0.2,0.42,0.26,0.35,0.33,0.19,0.04,0.09,0.04,0	92.5%
SAS 95, NYK 88	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.59,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.48,0.45,0.38,0.47,0.4,0.42,0.37,0.34,0.36,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.4,0.22,0.33,0.24,0.39,0.48,0.41,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.42,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.28,0.31,0.4,0.39,0.39,0.28,0.09,0.02,0	92.2%