NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	92		Excitement	7.5 [269]		MVP	Dwight Howard (ORL): +31.5%
Toronto Raptors	88		Comeback	1.4 [733]		LVP	Jason Richardson (ORL): -16.0%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwight Howard	0.32	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.15,0.19,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.34,0.39,0.38,0.34,0.32	0.17	0.16	0.02	20	67%	0.38	2	-0.06	14	29%	-0.17
Ryan Anderson	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.04	0.09	0.00	16	53%	0.17	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.03
JJ Redick	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.09	0.03	0.04	-0.02	10	50%	0.09	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.01
Chris Duhon	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	75%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.2,-0.2,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.06	0.05	0.00	10	55%	0.12	5	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Glen Davis	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	5	33%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.04
Hedo Turkoglu	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.13	-0.11	-0.02	-0.00	6	0%	-0.10	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jason Richardson	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16	-0.09	-0.06	0.01	10	27%	-0.12	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.03

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jerryd Bayless	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.21,0.21,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.2	0.20	0.09	0.11	0.00	7	75%	0.26	1	-0.06	6	83%	0.03
Jamaal Magloire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Gray	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	7	61%	0.06	2	-0.07	4	75%	0.00
Leandro Barbosa	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	6	57%	0.07	3	-0.10	2	100%	0.02
Ed Davis	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	0.01	0.01	7	37%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03
Jose Calderon	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.04	0.03	9	44%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Linas Kleiza	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	-0.00	6	17%	-0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.17,0.13,0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	0.01	-0.11	-0.01	22	48%	-0.04	1	-0.06	4	100%	0.02
James Johnson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.13	-0.13	-0.05	-0.09	-0.01	13	46%	-0.03	3	-0.10	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.6	2.4	26.8	15.8	29.3	1.7	38.1	139.7
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +45.7%

TOR -11.9%

ORL +2.8%

ORL +12.8%

ORL +0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	TOR	NBA	ORL	TOR	NBA
this game	15.2	17.4	15.6	103.4	100.0	102.8
season	16.2	16.5		102.8	98.9
opponent	15.2	15.8		102.9	103.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	13.9	17.8	14.8	14.5	15.2
TOR	19.8	18.2	16.5	15.5	17.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
JJ Redick	58	58	0.74	-0.24	0.97	0.39	12	-8	20	15.0	15.4	-0.40	17.4	17.4	-0.00
Dwight Howard	67	67	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.35	6	-2	8	15.1	15.4	-0.33	17.6	16.8	0.77
Hedo Turkoglu	64	64	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.34	5	-1	6	15.4	14.6	0.72	17.7	16.7	0.95
Jameer Nelson	62	62	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.35	2	2	0	15.0	15.4	-0.41	17.4	17.4	0.02
Glen Davis	39	37	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.06	11	-7	18	15.4	14.9	0.50	18.1	16.9	1.18
Jason Richardson	71	70	0.11	0.39	-0.27	0.41	-10	14	-24	15.0	15.8	-0.85	16.5	20.8	-4.32
Chris Duhon	27	26	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.03	2	2	0	15.4	15.0	0.41	17.4	17.4	-0.02
Ryan Anderson	57	56	-0.25	0.75	-1.01	-0.02	-8	12	-20	15.2	15.1	0.10	17.5	17.2	0.38

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Linas Kleiza	21	24	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.01	0	-4	4	18.1	17.2	0.98	14.5	15.4	-0.96
Leandro Barbosa	33	35	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.12	3	-7	10	17.9	17.1	0.82	14.5	15.6	-1.06
Aaron Gray	42	44	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.07	0	-4	4	17.9	16.9	0.97	15.7	14.6	1.13
James Johnson	73	73	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.32	3	-7	10	17.3	17.7	-0.40	15.1	15.6	-0.49
Jose Calderon	65	64	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.32	1	-5	6	16.6	19.7	-3.11	15.6	14.1	1.50
Ed Davis	62	65	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.10	-8	4	-12	18.0	15.9	2.09	15.0	15.7	-0.75
Jamaal Magloire	29	28	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.32	-3	-1	-2	17.7	17.3	0.44	14.4	15.5	-1.12
DeMar DeRozan	71	69	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.40	-3	-1	-2	17.2	18.2	-1.04	15.5	14.0	1.49
Jerryd Bayless	44	43	-0.63	0.13	-0.77	-0.25	-13	9	-22	16.7	18.0	-1.30	15.3	15.0	0.24

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.43,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.43,0.39,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.35,0.37,0.32,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.44,0.37,0.34,0.31,0.31,0.3,0.45,0.58,0.59,0.48,0.37,0.33,0.25,0.3,0.3,0.34,0.2,0.42,0.26,0.35,0.33,0.19,0.04,0.09,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 101, DEN 98	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.59,0.57,0.51,0.46,0.52,0.47,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.35,0.37,0.42,0.44,0.36,0.39,0.44,0.37,0.4,0.34,0.42,0.36,0.39,0.46,0.52,0.38,0.37,0.33,0.28,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.38,0.32,0.3,0.29,0.53,0.38,0.21,0.1,0.08,0	92.5%
ATL 85, CHI 74	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.51,0.53,0.48,0.43,0.39,0.39,0.37,0.45,0.51,0.43,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.44,0.37,0.36,0.31,0.31,0.36,0.41,0.3,0.34,0.45,0.42,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.41,0.41,0.34,0.38,0.33,0.33,0.42,0.3,0.29,0.22,0.24,0.07,0.01,0,0	92.5%
BOS 103, CLE 96	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.54,0.58,0.57,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.51,0.62,0.55,0.51,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.27,0.35,0.34,0.39,0.33,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.45,0.37,0.4,0.18,0.26,0.3,0.25,0.24,0.24,0.36,0.24,0.22,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.01,0	92.4%