NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	103		Excitement	6.9 [503]		MVP	Marcus Smart (BOS): +19.4%
Cleveland Cavaliers	96		Comeback	1.6 [457]		LVP	Jordan Clarkson (CLE): -20.8%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marcus Smart	0.19	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.13,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.19	0.12	0.08	-0.00	10	81%	0.26	2	-0.07	1	100%	0.01
Jayson Tatum	0.18	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.12,0.16,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.18	0.13	0.04	-0.01	13	66%	0.19	1	-0.01	12	100%	0.07
Brad Wanamaker	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.05	0.07	0.00	5	64%	0.12	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Gordon Hayward	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08	0.06	0.02	0.00	14	64%	0.15	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Daniel Theis	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	-0.01	0.00	3	100%	0.06	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Al Horford	-0.00	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	9	50%	0.07	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Semi Ojeleye	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Terry Rozier	-0.06	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	0.01	9	44%	0.00	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jaylen Brown	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.08,-0.05,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.11	-0.02	-0.01	19	34%	-0.05	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Larry Nance Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.03	0.05	0.00	8	69%	0.13	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jaron Blossomgame	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.01	0.00	5	40%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Collin Sexton	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.01,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.05	-0.06	-0.01	24	54%	0.06	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.02
David Nwaba	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	8	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ante Zizic	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.02	0.01	7	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Deng Adel	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alec Burks	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.02	-0.03	0.01	19	54%	0.08	3	-0.10	1	100%	0.00
Matthew Dellavedova	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,0.04,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	8	50%	0.08	3	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Jordan Clarkson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.18,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.21	-0.11	-0.10	-0.00	13	24%	-0.19	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.4	2.3	21.7	15.5	24.4	2.3	26.7	117.3
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +54.6%

BOS +11.5%

CLE -16.2%

BOS +0.0%

BOS +0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	CLE	NBA	BOS	CLE	NBA
this game	12.7	18.0	14.3	109.6	102.1	109.3
season	13.9	15.5		109.9	106.3
opponent	13.9	14.7		116.5	106.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	14.8	11.4	11.9	12.9	12.7
CLE	19.5	18.6	14.8	19.8	18.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gordon Hayward	61	61	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.17	10	-3	13	12.0	13.8	-1.79	17.3	19.2	-1.81
Marcus Smart	60	58	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.26	6	1	5	13.3	11.4	1.91	18.0	18.0	0.01
Jayson Tatum	67	66	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.25	5	2	3	13.0	11.9	1.08	17.8	18.4	-0.64
Semi Ojeleye	34	35	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.06	10	-3	13	11.4	13.4	-2.05	19.7	17.0	2.72
Terry Rozier	62	61	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.29	0	7	-7	13.3	11.4	1.85	18.2	17.5	0.76
Al Horford	57	56	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.24	1	6	-5	13.4	11.5	1.85	18.2	17.7	0.54
Daniel Theis	37	38	0.23	0.27	-0.05	0.05	6	1	5	11.5	13.4	-1.85	17.7	18.2	-0.54
Brad Wanamaker	34	36	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.06	0	7	-7	12.0	13.0	-1.08	18.1	17.9	0.21
Jaylen Brown	58	59	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	10	-13	12.7	12.5	0.21	17.5	18.8	-1.35

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ante Zizic	41	43	0.13	-0.63	0.77	-0.16	10	-17	27	17.6	18.2	-0.61	14.1	11.5	2.64
Deng Adel	49	50	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-9	11	17.5	18.5	-0.98	13.0	12.3	0.68
David Nwaba	42	43	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.24	2	-9	11	18.5	17.5	1.03	13.9	11.6	2.30
Matthew Dellavedova	34	33	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.08	-5	-2	-3	18.2	17.8	0.36	12.0	13.0	-1.02
Jaron Blossomgame	36	34	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.07	-7	0	-7	18.3	17.8	0.53	11.9	13.1	-1.22
Alec Burks	71	72	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.28	-3	-4	1	18.2	17.3	0.95	13.0	11.6	1.34
Collin Sexton	83	83	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.24	-6	-1	-5	17.7	20.2	-2.50	12.7	12.7	-0.08
Jordan Clarkson	55	54	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.11	-14	7	-21	17.9	18.0	-0.08	11.3	14.5	-3.25
Larry Nance Jr.	59	58	-0.66	0.16	-0.82	-0.25	-14	7	-21	18.0	17.9	0.15	12.1	13.5	-1.36

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.54,0.58,0.57,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.51,0.62,0.55,0.51,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.27,0.35,0.34,0.39,0.33,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.45,0.37,0.4,0.18,0.26,0.3,0.25,0.24,0.24,0.36,0.24,0.22,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 114, SAS 105	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.46,0.51,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.5,0.58,0.51,0.45,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.41,0.42,0.42,0.36,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.33,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.32,0.3,0.15,0.1,0.11,0.16,0.26,0.12,0.09,0.03,0,0.02,0,0	92.6%
MIL 101, BOS 94	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.42,0.44,0.49,0.55,0.59,0.63,0.6,0.53,0.6,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.32,0.36,0.39,0.42,0.39,0.36,0.5,0.41,0.4,0.39,0.52,0.39,0.42,0.36,0.38,0.34,0.37,0.28,0.38,0.26,0.21,0.28,0.27,0.26,0.29,0.12,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0	92.5%
LAL 114, PHX 106	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.53,0.47,0.52,0.41,0.47,0.42,0.46,0.48,0.52,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.47,0.48,0.36,0.36,0.39,0.43,0.41,0.3,0.39,0.34,0.23,0.3,0.39,0.48,0.48,0.41,0.44,0.3,0.18,0.19,0.15,0.12,0.1,0.12,0.17,0.12,0.13,0.02,0,0,0,0	92.5%