NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	89		Excitement	7.3 [325]		MVP	Anfernee Hardaway (ORL): +6.8%
Detroit Pistons	84		Comeback	1.7 [277]		LVP	Grant Hill (DET): -32.0%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Anfernee Hardaway	0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0.14,0.16,0.13,0.07	-0.04	0.10	-0.00	14	53%	0.17	2	-0.10	10	50%	-0.03
Nick Anderson	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.04	0.01	10	50%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dan Schayes	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Wilkins	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	5	42%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Rony Seikaly	-0.01	0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	13	63%	0.12	3	-0.13	4	75%	-0.01
Horace Grant	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04	-0.05	0.01	-0.00	10	50%	0.06	3	-0.10	2	50%	-0.01
Derek Strong	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	6	43%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Darrell Armstrong	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	7	43%	-0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Bo Outlaw	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	0.00	2	50%	-0.01	2	-0.08	4	100%	0.02
Mark Price	-0.23	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.25,-0.25,-0.19,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23	-0.16	-0.06	0.00	15	25%	-0.16	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Grant Long	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.01	3	67%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerome Williams	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Don Reid	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lindsey Hunter	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	-0.02	11	54%	0.07	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Malik Sealy	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.02	-0.01	17	47%	0.05	3	-0.08	4	100%	0.05
Aaron McKie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	3	67%	0.02	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Rick Mahorn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	0.01	2	62%	-0.02	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.01
Theo Ratliff	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.03	0.00	6	57%	0.07	4	-0.17	2	100%	0.01
Bison Dele	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.17	-0.17	-0.04	-0.11	0.02	15	52%	-0.07	3	-0.10	3	100%	0.01
Grant Hill	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.13,-0.15,-0.21,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.32	-0.32	-0.14	-0.18	-0.01	19	37%	-0.17	4	-0.15	2	50%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.9	2.5	26.2	16.7	23.6	2.4	42.3	137.6
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +25.9%

ORL +0.7%

ORL +13.3%

ORL +11.9%

DET -1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	DET	NBA	ORL	DET	NBA
this game	16.1	15.9	15.6	98.9	93.3	102.5
season	16.7	15.9		100.3	102.8
opponent	15.9	15.6		101.1	101.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	15.8	19.1	17.3	13.0	16.1
DET	16.2	16.9	17.8	13.6	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Horace Grant	64	64	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.31	11	-6	17	15.8	16.8	-1.00	15.5	17.0	-1.54
Nick Anderson	58	58	0.60	-0.10	0.69	0.27	11	-6	17	15.5	17.0	-1.51	15.6	16.6	-1.01
Rony Seikaly	83	83	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.24	8	-3	11	16.7	7.9	8.89	15.8	18.1	-2.38
Anfernee Hardaway	68	69	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.32	5	0	5	15.1	19.0	-3.84	15.4	17.8	-2.43
Mark Price	60	58	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.22	7	-2	9	15.6	16.9	-1.22	15.2	17.2	-2.03
Darrell Armstrong	32	33	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.21	-2	7	-9	16.1	16.0	0.11	16.9	15.4	1.52
Gerald Wilkins	22	21	0.04	0.46	-0.43	0.04	0	5	-5	19.0	15.1	3.84	17.8	15.4	2.43
Dan Schayes	5	6	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	0.04	-3	8	-11	9.0	16.5	-7.47	20.2	15.6	4.52
Bo Outlaw	32	32	-0.10	0.60	-0.69	0.08	-6	11	-17	17.0	15.5	1.51	16.6	15.6	1.01
Derek Strong	26	26	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	0.05	-6	11	-17	16.8	15.8	1.00	17.0	15.5	1.54

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rick Mahorn	15	14	0.11	-0.61	0.71	-0.04	5	-10	15	15.3	16.1	-0.81	16.4	16.0	0.36
Jerome Williams	1	0	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	0.05	-2	-3	1	3.0	16.1	-13.09	0.0	16.1	-16.06
Don Reid	5	5	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	0.02	-2	-3	1	19.4	15.7	3.66	9.0	16.5	-7.47
Grant Hill	82	80	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.24	0	-5	5	15.8	17.0	-1.16	16.2	14.7	1.53
Grant Long	26	27	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	0.03	-10	5	-15	17.3	15.4	1.86	17.7	15.3	2.35
Aaron McKie	30	30	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.17	-6	1	-7	16.6	15.6	1.03	16.3	15.9	0.32
Theo Ratliff	51	52	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.33	-2	-3	1	15.9	15.9	-0.01	16.2	15.9	0.32
Bison Dele	78	79	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.40	0	-5	5	16.0	15.7	0.22	16.2	15.2	1.00
Lindsey Hunter	80	81	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.41	-1	-4	3	15.6	18.3	-2.65	15.9	17.7	-1.79
Malik Sealy	82	82	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.29	-7	2	-9	15.7	18.4	-2.67	15.6	20.5	-4.88

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.45,0.42,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.44,0.39,0.44,0.42,0.49,0.58,0.58,0.48,0.45,0.36,0.33,0.32,0.41,0.28,0.34,0.37,0.29,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.32,0.21,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.15,0.1,0.16,0
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 115, SAS 102	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.44,0.46,0.41,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.38,0.43,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.42,0.41,0.46,0.45,0.46,0.5,0.45,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.44,0.37,0.28,0.3,0.3,0.25,0.24,0.24,0.31,0.35,0.28,0.39,0.29,0.14,0,0	93.2%
WAS 101, DEN 98	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.59,0.57,0.51,0.46,0.52,0.47,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.35,0.37,0.42,0.44,0.36,0.39,0.44,0.37,0.4,0.34,0.42,0.36,0.39,0.46,0.52,0.38,0.37,0.33,0.28,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.38,0.32,0.3,0.29,0.53,0.38,0.21,0.1,0.08,0	92.6%
BOS 102, POR 96	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.41,0.44,0.43,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.39,0.4,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.41,0.41,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.36,0.33,0.35,0.29,0.28,0.37,0.44,0.4,0.3,0.34,0.25,0.14,0.32,0.31,0.24,0.17,0.07,0.15,0.06,0.01,0	92.3%