NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Vancouver Grizzlies	110		Excitement	7.4 [333]		MVP	Shareef Abdur-Rahim (VAN): +19.7%
Minnesota Timberwolves	102		Comeback	1.9 [142]		LVP	Kevin Garnett (MIN): -32.3%

Vancouver Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	0.20	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.2,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.10	0.10	0.00	12	69%	0.20	0	0.00	5	80%	0.00
Michael Dickerson	0.13	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.07	0.05	-0.01	17	62%	0.15	1	-0.02	5	60%	-0.01
Stromile Swift	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.01	0.03	-0.02	7	59%	0.06	0	0.00	8	62%	0.00
Tony Massenburg	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.00	4	67%	0.03	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.04	0.00	6	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Erick Strickland	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.1,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.01	11	50%	0.00	1	-0.03	6	100%	0.03
Mike Bibby	-0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.15,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.09	0.03	0.00	16	38%	0.00	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Grant Long	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.08	-0.05	-0.01	9	33%	-0.07	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Bryant Reeves	-0.14	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.06	-0.03	0.04	8	37%	-0.08	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Sam Mitchell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.12	0.03	0.00	5	110%	0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
LaPhonso Ellis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.07	0.05	0.00	9	80%	0.18	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Todd Day	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
William Avery	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	5	55%	0.01	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01
Anthony Peeler	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	14	46%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Wally Szczerbiak	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	-0.01	9	65%	0.08	3	-0.09	2	50%	0.02
Reggie Slater	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	6	50%	-0.04	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.04
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Terrell Brandon	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.07	-0.05	0.03	17	42%	-0.09	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Kevin Garnett	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.22,-0.26,-0.24,-0.27,-0.21,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3,-0.32,-0.32,-0.32	-0.32	-0.25	-0.10	-0.03	22	29%	-0.25	2	-0.07	11	73%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.6	1.8	29.4	15.7	25.9	1.8	33.2	130.2
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

VAN +13.5%

VAN +4.0%

VAN +13.6%

VAN +7.8%

VAN +11.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	VAN	MIN	NBA	VAN	MIN	NBA
this game	16.4	13.6	15.5	113.4	107.4	100.9
season	15.6	15.0		97.4	102.9
opponent	15.9	15.1		101.7	103.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
VAN	16.4	16.6	17.3	15.2	16.4
MIN	12.4	13.4	13.3	15.4	13.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Vancouver Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike Bibby	90	87	0.62	-0.12	0.75	0.27	12	-4	16	16.1	20.0	-3.90	13.3	17.2	-4.00
Stromile Swift	43	40	0.59	-0.09	0.69	0.18	14	-6	20	15.2	17.3	-2.11	15.2	12.4	2.87
Erick Strickland	61	59	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.26	7	1	6	15.6	17.6	-2.00	14.0	12.9	1.04
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	67	66	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.24	6	2	4	16.6	15.8	0.84	13.4	14.1	-0.74
Michael Dickerson	82	81	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.29	3	5	-2	16.3	16.9	-0.65	13.0	17.0	-4.00
Tony Massenburg	29	28	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.04	4	4	0	16.1	16.5	-0.35	14.9	13.0	1.85
Bryant Reeves	37	37	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.01	0	8	-8	17.3	15.8	1.52	12.7	14.1	-1.41
Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf	20	19	0.00	0.50	-0.49	-0.03	1	7	-6	17.6	16.1	1.60	16.3	12.9	3.34
Grant Long	56	58	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	0.06	-7	15	-22	17.4	15.0	2.48	12.7	15.0	-2.35

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Sam Mitchell	36	37	0.07	-0.57	0.63	0.01	2	-10	12	13.4	13.7	-0.37	15.8	16.7	-0.92
Rasho Nesterovic	40	41	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.03	-1	-7	6	12.7	14.2	-1.45	17.4	15.6	1.79
Anthony Peeler	76	78	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.18	3	-11	14	12.6	17.4	-4.72	16.5	15.8	0.74
Todd Day	6	6	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.01	-3	-5	2	11.0	13.8	-2.76	14.8	16.5	-1.65
William Avery	27	29	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	0.00	-4	-4	0	16.2	12.5	3.68	17.6	15.9	1.67
Wally Szczerbiak	50	51	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.20	-3	-5	2	13.5	13.7	-0.15	17.1	15.6	1.55
Kevin Garnett	83	85	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.25	-2	-6	4	13.3	15.7	-2.38	16.6	14.5	2.15
Chauncey Billups	11	11	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.06	-10	2	-12	18.2	13.0	5.19	12.0	16.9	-4.94
Reggie Slater	23	23	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.09	-10	2	-12	15.7	12.9	2.84	14.2	17.1	-2.89
Terrell Brandon	76	76	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.26	-5	-3	-2	12.9	16.2	-3.28	16.4	16.2	0.18
LaPhonso Ellis	47	48	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.25	-7	-1	-6	14.4	12.8	1.53	15.9	16.8	-0.88

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.5,0.5,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.55,0.56,0.63,0.62,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.46,0.44,0.56,0.64,0.56,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.39,0.45,0.42,0.39,0.32,0.34,0.3,0.4,0.4,0.34,0.3,0.48,0.43,0.47,0.31,0.25,0.22,0.03,0.07,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
OKC 106, DAL 100	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.6,0.67,0.68,0.61,0.71,0.64,0.63,0.58,0.51,0.4,0.47,0.49,0.56,0.59,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.4,0.37,0.3,0.36,0.39,0.42,0.48,0.34,0.37,0.4,0.48,0.46,0.34,0.43,0.38,0.42,0.3,0.29,0.18,0.1,0.01,0.03,0.04,0	93.4%
CHH 95, TOR 82	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.52,0.53,0.56,0.6,0.55,0.6,0.57,0.58,0.56,0.65,0.62,0.64,0.62,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.55,0.42,0.3,0.38,0.35,0.38,0.41,0.41,0.44,0.4,0.46,0.48,0.43,0.38,0.42,0.26,0.24,0.17,0.07,0.05,0,0,0	93.3%
UTA 94, CHI 83	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.61,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.63,0.56,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.59,0.54,0.59,0.64,0.67,0.59,0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.42,0.52,0.41,0.28,0.27,0.29,0.25,0.34,0.3,0.34,0.38,0.37,0.26,0.35,0.27,0.1,0.07,0.04,0,0	93.3%