NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	112		Excitement	3.3 [1089]		MVP	David Robinson (SAS): +6.5%
Orlando Magic	95		Comeback	1.3 [823]		LVP	Tracy McGrady (ORL): -16.9%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
David Robinson	0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.12	0.00	0.06	14	70%	0.06	0	0.00	9	89%	0.02
Danny Ferry	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.01	-0.01	10	65%	0.09	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Terry Porter	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	-0.00	9	65%	0.06	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Derek Anderson	0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.06	0.00	0.03	14	67%	0.04	2	-0.01	8	87%	0.01
Tim Duncan	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.07	0.01	-0.08	13	53%	0.03	3	-0.02	10	30%	-0.05
Derrick Dial	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Daniels	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	0.00	0.02	8	56%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Steve Kerr	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Samaki Walker	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	4	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Ira Newble	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.11	-0.00	-0.06	6	21%	-0.02	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Pat Garrity	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.12	0.00	0.07	12	69%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Troy Hudson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.06	0.00	0.02	2	125%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Don Reid	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	2	100%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bo Outlaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	2	67%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
James Robinson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Doleac	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	6	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew DeClercq	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Monty Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	5	36%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Mike Miller	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.02	-0.00	0.07	9	56%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
John Amaechi	0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.09	-0.00	-0.02	6	33%	-0.04	2	-0.03	3	100%	0.01
Darrell Armstrong	0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.11	0.00	-0.03	17	34%	-0.06	1	-0.01	4	75%	-0.00
Tracy McGrady	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.12,-0.15,-0.16,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.14	-0.00	0.03	27	39%	-0.16	1	-0.01	10	70%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.2	3.3	31.5	19.6	32.1	2.7	28.2	143.8
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +49.5%

ORL -3.0%

SAS +8.8%

ORL -6.7%

SAS +1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	ORL	NBA	SAS	ORL	NBA
this game	16.3	13.9	15.5	116.7	100.0	100.9
season	15.9	14.6		103.4	101.6
opponent	15.8	15.5		100.8	96.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	14.8	15.2	15.4	20.1	16.3
ORL	14.6	16.1	11.9	13.2	13.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Danny Ferry	53	52	0.45	0.05	0.41	-0.22	23	-6	29	16.9	15.4	1.48	14.4	13.2	1.19
David Robinson	69	68	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.13	9	8	1	15.2	19.1	-3.91	13.9	13.9	-0.01
Antonio Daniels	59	59	0.38	0.12	0.25	-0.09	16	1	15	16.3	16.2	0.16	14.2	13.3	0.89
Derek Anderson	86	87	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.00	11	6	5	16.1	17.9	-1.83	13.3	19.9	-6.54
Samaki Walker	19	18	0.28	0.22	0.06	-0.07	12	5	7	16.2	16.3	-0.13	17.1	13.1	3.91
Terry Porter	56	55	0.27	0.23	0.03	-0.03	10	7	3	17.0	15.2	1.78	13.9	13.9	-0.03
Tim Duncan	82	81	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.10	5	12	-7	15.9	18.4	-2.54	13.5	15.9	-2.40
Steve Kerr	27	26	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.04	4	13	-9	17.1	15.9	1.24	14.8	13.6	1.22
Ira Newble	26	27	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	20	-23	15.8	16.4	-0.67	12.3	14.5	-2.17
Derrick Dial	1	0	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	19	-21	24.0	16.2	7.82	0.0	13.9	-13.88

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andrew DeClercq	27	27	0.01	-0.51	0.53	-0.10	4	-21	25	11.9	14.7	-2.84	15.0	16.8	-1.81
Pat Garrity	37	39	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.31	10	-27	37	12.8	14.6	-1.85	17.7	15.2	2.50
Mike Miller	34	37	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.00	-3	-14	11	13.4	14.1	-0.74	17.5	15.5	2.04
Don Reid	12	12	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.02	-4	-13	9	13.0	14.0	-1.01	13.4	16.7	-3.25
Troy Hudson	19	20	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	0.05	-7	-10	3	14.5	13.7	0.80	17.5	15.9	1.63
James Robinson	17	15	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	0.17	-13	-4	-9	12.8	14.1	-1.29	18.1	15.9	2.14
Monty Williams	27	28	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	0.02	-9	-8	-1	16.0	13.0	3.01	18.1	15.5	2.66
John Amaechi	42	40	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	0.24	-17	0	-17	13.8	13.9	-0.13	14.4	17.6	-3.10
Michael Doleac	23	25	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	0.07	-12	-5	-7	17.0	12.9	4.05	17.5	15.8	1.70
Darrell Armstrong	80	80	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	0.02	-13	-4	-9	13.7	14.9	-1.25	15.7	18.9	-3.14
Bo Outlaw	46	48	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	0.01	-14	-3	-11	15.8	12.1	3.76	16.8	15.7	1.06
Tracy McGrady	84	83	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	0.04	-16	-1	-15	13.7	15.3	-1.57	15.5	20.9	-5.39

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.45,0.4,0.45,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.27,0.22,0.18,0.16,0.15,0.16,0.15,0.11,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 105, MEM 80	0.5,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.55,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.43,0.39,0.33,0.38,0.36,0.35,0.32,0.26,0.27,0.27,0.24,0.18,0.16,0.13,0.16,0.13,0.08,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.5%
LAC 98, SEA 76	0.5,0.51,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.47,0.4,0.34,0.32,0.32,0.31,0.31,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.14,0.12,0.1,0.13,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.5%
PHX 93, DEN 82	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.4,0.38,0.32,0.3,0.3,0.32,0.33,0.27,0.31,0.22,0.21,0.15,0.18,0.17,0.16,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.4%