NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Cleveland Cavaliers	95		Excitement	6.4 [507]		MVP	Matt Harpring (CLE): +13.6%
Miami Heat	103		Comeback	1.7 [783]		LVP	Chris Gatling (CLE): -21.8%

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Matt Harpring	0.14	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.14	0.10	0.04	0.00	9	75%	0.14	0	0.00	2	100%	0.03
J.R. Reid	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.04	0.00	1	100%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robert Traylor	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.03	0.00	2	89%	0.08	1	-0.03	5	80%	0.01
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	0.02	0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.00	8	70%	0.07	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Trajan Langdon	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.01	-0.00	2	75%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Michael Hawkins	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cedric Henderson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	2	75%	0.04	2	-0.09	4	100%	0.02
Andre Miller	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0,0.03,0,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.03,0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.09	-0.01	-0.11	-0.03	18	67%	0.13	7	-0.22	6	83%	0.00
Lamond Murray	-0.13	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13	-0.08	-0.04	0.01	8	31%	-0.08	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Clar. Weatherspoon	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.11	-0.03	-0.00	9	26%	-0.07	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.01
Chris Gatling	-0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.10	-0.12	0.00	12	35%	-0.17	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.02

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eddie Jones	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.01,-0.01,0.13	0.13	0.07	0.07	0.01	17	67%	0.21	3	-0.08	12	100%	0.08
Tim Hardaway	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.07,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.11	0.01	0.00	18	68%	0.22	3	-0.11	2	100%	0.01
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.04	0.03	-0.02	2	87%	0.10	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Anthony Mason	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.03	-0.01	13	53%	0.06	1	-0.03	8	75%	0.01
A.C. Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	-0.00	5	54%	-0.00	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.02
Eddie House	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.03	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Dan Majerle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	3	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Duane Causwell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Brian Grant	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.06	-0.05	0.03	10	36%	-0.12	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	20.8	2.6	35.4	15.5	27.2	1.6	39.4	142.5
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +21.0%

MIA +11.0%

CLE -5.2%

MIA +22.7%

MIA +0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CLE	MIA	NBA	CLE	MIA	NBA
this game	15.6	16.7	15.5	106.7	115.7	100.9
season	15.3	16.3		98.4	98.4
opponent	16.1	15.6		96.9	102.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CLE	15.3	18.5	16.1	12.9	15.6
MIA	16.7	13.6	19.0	17.9	16.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Trajan Langdon	19	20	0.03	-0.53	0.57	0.00	1	-9	10	12.6	16.4	-3.80	18.1	16.3	1.75
J.R. Reid	2	2	0.01	-0.51	0.53	0.01	0	-8	8	16.5	15.6	0.90	3.0	17.1	-14.06
Robert Traylor	32	30	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	-0.04	1	-9	10	15.4	15.8	-0.38	18.4	15.9	2.45
Andre Miller	71	71	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.39	8	-16	24	14.9	18.6	-3.75	17.5	13.9	3.51
Cedric Henderson	32	33	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.28	4	-12	16	14.0	16.5	-2.48	18.4	15.7	2.67
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	42	42	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.04	-6	-2	-4	16.2	15.1	1.08	16.0	17.4	-1.45
Chris Gatling	47	46	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.23	-2	-6	4	15.1	16.2	-1.08	17.5	16.0	1.48
Michael Hawkins	18	18	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	0.13	-16	8	-24	18.6	14.9	3.75	13.9	17.5	-3.51
Matt Harpring	68	67	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.25	-6	-2	-4	16.6	12.5	4.11	16.4	17.9	-1.49
Lamond Murray	59	59	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.01	-15	7	-22	16.3	14.2	2.09	15.7	18.7	-2.95
Clar. Weatherspoon	55	57	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.23	-9	1	-10	15.7	15.4	0.29	16.4	17.4	-1.04

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brian Grant	64	64	0.76	-0.26	1.02	0.23	18	-10	28	17.5	14.8	2.70	15.9	14.9	1.03
Eddie Jones	76	78	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.22	12	-4	16	16.5	17.9	-1.38	15.6	15.9	-0.33
Bruce Bowen	42	39	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.25	10	-2	12	17.5	16.1	1.44	15.8	15.5	0.27
Tim Hardaway	75	72	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.22	8	0	8	16.9	15.8	1.13	15.6	15.6	-0.04
Anthony Mason	82	82	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.34	1	7	-6	16.9	14.4	2.51	15.4	18.7	-3.36
Eddie House	17	19	0.03	0.47	-0.45	0.06	-1	9	-10	16.8	16.7	0.03	15.4	15.7	-0.25
Dan Majerle	36	36	0.01	0.49	-0.49	0.04	-1	9	-10	15.9	17.3	-1.43	15.9	15.5	0.41
Duane Causwell	5	4	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	-0.03	0	8	-8	10.0	17.1	-7.14	16.5	15.6	0.92
A.C. Green	26	28	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	-0.01	-3	11	-14	15.6	17.2	-1.65	15.6	15.6	-0.02

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.4,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.4,0.46,0.51,0.56,0.59,0.67,0.65,0.61,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.55,0.64,0.64,0.71,0.77,0.82,0.86,0.84,0.85,0.92,0.85,0.82,0.71,0.81,0.86,0.82,0.78,0.81,0.83,0.91,0.85,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 91, ORL 94	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.43,0.44,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.66,0.69,0.64,0.61,0.63,0.66,0.67,0.61,0.61,0.67,0.71,0.8,0.84,0.85,0.86,0.82,0.81,0.85,0.85,0.87,0.81,0.73,0.76,0.72,0.81,0.79,0.91,0.99,1	93.4%
MIN 101, GSW 110	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.4,0.43,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.64,0.67,0.64,0.61,0.63,0.6,0.57,0.61,0.67,0.71,0.74,0.83,0.88,0.88,0.87,0.93,0.98,0.96,0.88,0.8,0.85,0.86,0.81,0.88,0.62,0.94,1,1,1	93.1%
SAS 86, LAL 96	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.52,0.53,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.58,0.55,0.54,0.54,0.57,0.6,0.73,0.81,0.81,0.74,0.85,0.92,0.9,0.86,0.85,0.85,0.84,0.82,0.68,0.85,0.92,0.95,0.82,0.9,0.93,0.99,0.99,1	92.8%