NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	86		Excitement	5.5 [684]		MVP	Will Perdue (SAS): +7.5%
Los Angeles Lakers	96		Comeback	1.6 [767]		LVP	Vernon Maxwell (SAS): -18.7%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Will Perdue	0.08	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08	0.09	0.02	0.04	10	77%	0.10	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Vinny Del Negro	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	-0.00	10	50%	0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Tim Kempton	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Cory Alexander	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02	-0.05	0.01	-0.02	3	33%	-0.00	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Monty Williams	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	2	62%	0.01	2	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Avery Johnson	-0.06	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	13	54%	0.03	3	-0.09	2	50%	-0.00
Carl Herrera	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	0.01	4	50%	-0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Dominique Wilkins	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.05	-0.01	16	54%	0.02	4	-0.09	3	100%	0.01
Greg Anderson	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.01	0.00	0	50%	-0.01	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01
Vernon Maxwell	-0.19	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.18,-0.18,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.13	-0.07	-0.01	14	37%	-0.14	2	-0.04	7	29%	-0.07

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.06	0.01	16	65%	0.15	5	-0.09	5	100%	0.02
Nick Van Exel	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.01	-0.01	11	58%	0.08	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Jerome Kersey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	5	72%	0.05	1	-0.02	8	87%	0.01
Derek Fisher	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	2	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	19	60%	0.08	4	-0.10	10	30%	-0.08
Corie Blount	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Byron Scott	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	3	57%	0.01	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Elden Campbell	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Rumeal Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	8	44%	-0.01	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	2.4	24.6	15.6	26.7	2.6	34.6	130.9
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +22.2%

LAL +13.0%

SAS -3.2%

LAL +13.8%

LAL +4.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	LAL	NBA	SAS	LAL	NBA
this game	17.4	15.3	15.6	98.9	107.9	104.4
season	16.8	15.3		100.8	105.8
opponent	15.7	15.4		101.5	109.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	21.4	14.8	17.3	16.7	17.4
LAL	14.9	17.9	14.6	14.0	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Kempton	4	4	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.03	-1	-9	8	11.5	17.7	-6.22	14.0	15.4	-1.38
Greg Anderson	22	22	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	-0.09	2	-12	14	17.4	17.5	-0.10	16.7	14.9	1.88
Monty Williams	24	25	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	0.04	-3	-7	4	13.3	19.0	-5.67	15.6	15.2	0.45
Cory Alexander	11	12	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	0.03	-3	-7	4	14.1	17.9	-3.83	13.7	15.6	-1.90
Carl Herrera	33	31	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.10	-5	-5	0	17.1	17.7	-0.61	15.3	15.3	-0.09
Dominique Wilkins	62	64	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.19	-4	-6	2	17.6	17.1	0.44	15.2	15.6	-0.34
Will Perdue	49	53	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.17	-8	-2	-6	18.9	15.6	3.25	15.8	14.6	1.23
Avery Johnson	76	77	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.24	-7	-3	-4	17.9	14.1	3.83	15.6	13.7	1.90
Vinny Del Negro	76	77	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.20	-9	-1	-8	17.9	14.2	3.73	15.0	17.5	-2.53
Vernon Maxwell	78	80	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.15	-12	2	-14	17.7	14.9	2.84	15.0	18.2	-3.23

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eddie Jones	85	83	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.20	12	-2	14	15.0	21.0	-5.95	17.8	9.2	8.58
Shaquille O'Neal	68	67	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.20	10	0	10	14.8	16.9	-2.02	18.5	13.8	4.66
Jerome Kersey	64	61	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.15	6	4	2	14.9	16.3	-1.40	16.6	19.3	-2.72
Nick Van Exel	69	66	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.16	5	5	0	14.5	18.0	-3.53	17.6	17.0	0.64
Byron Scott	48	47	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.09	6	4	2	13.7	17.1	-3.40	19.0	15.6	3.45
Rumeal Robinson	41	40	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.11	4	6	-2	17.1	13.7	3.40	15.6	19.0	-3.45
Derek Fisher	21	22	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.04	5	5	0	17.8	14.5	3.27	16.5	17.7	-1.19
Corie Blount	15	16	0.12	0.38	-0.27	-0.09	7	3	4	15.9	15.2	0.74	14.4	18.1	-3.75
Elden Campbell	34	33	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.16	-5	15	-20	17.5	14.0	3.49	17.5	17.4	0.18

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.52,0.53,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.58,0.55,0.54,0.54,0.57,0.6,0.73,0.81,0.81,0.74,0.85,0.92,0.9,0.86,0.85,0.85,0.84,0.82,0.68,0.85,0.92,0.95,0.82,0.9,0.93,0.99,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 77, CHI 89	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.38,0.39,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.46,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.5,0.48,0.63,0.72,0.76,0.76,0.74,0.8,0.75,0.8,0.78,0.75,0.81,0.82,0.88,0.87,0.85,0.94,0.91,0.91,0.93,0.99,1,1,1	94.1%
NYK 87, SEA 95	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.38,0.4,0.35,0.38,0.4,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.54,0.64,0.61,0.58,0.51,0.58,0.63,0.66,0.67,0.71,0.84,0.8,0.84,0.85,0.89,0.9,0.87,0.78,0.75,0.76,0.85,0.83,0.92,0.88,0.98,0.99,1,1,1	93.8%
VAN 87, UTA 98	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.62,0.55,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.42,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.44,0.47,0.52,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.71,0.68,0.75,0.78,0.79,0.79,0.82,0.9,0.88,0.9,0.9,0.81,0.87,0.82,0.86,0.93,0.92,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	93.5%