NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	106		Excitement	8.1 [192]		MVP	Raef LaFrentz (DEN): +30.3%
Denver Nuggets	108		Comeback	11.8 [184]		LVP	Chucky Atkins (DET): -20.2%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Joe Smith	0.09	0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.02,0.07,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.04	0.04	-0.01	16	53%	0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Michael Curry	0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.02	-0.00	6	69%	0.08	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Mateen Cleaves	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.00	-0.00	7	78%	0.08	2	-0.04	4	50%	-0.03
Eric Montross	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Billy Owens	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerry Stackhouse	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.15,-0.19,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	23	55%	0.11	4	-0.14	9	78%	0.00
Ben Wallace	-0.06	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06	-0.02	-0.04	-0.00	7	56%	-0.01	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.04
Dana Barros	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.02	-0.05	0.00	10	45%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mikki Moore	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.12	-0.03	-0.00	6	17%	-0.07	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Chucky Atkins	-0.20	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.05,-0.01,-0.2	-0.02	-0.20	-0.02	10	55%	-0.05	3	-0.15	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Raef LaFrentz	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.23,0.23,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3	0.30	0.19	0.12	0.01	10	92%	0.30	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Nick Van Exel	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.11,0.09	0.09	-0.06	0.15	0.00	19	45%	0.19	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.03	0.00	25	55%	0.12	2	-0.05	3	33%	-0.03
Robert Pack	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	4	90%	0.07	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
James Posey	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	12	46%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Bowen	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keon Clark	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	1	67%	-0.00	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Voshon Lenard	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.01	0.00	11	32%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
George McCloud	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.10	-0.05	-0.00	9	41%	-0.05	3	-0.10	4	50%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.2	2.6	26.3	15.7	24.0	1.8	29.7	122.4
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +44.4%

DET -2.2%

DET -7.0%

DEN +16.8%

DET -2.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	DEN	NBA	DET	DEN	NBA
this game	14.5	15.1	15.5	109.3	110.2	100.9
season	14.3	15.2		97.9	101.4
opponent	15.2	15.4		104.1	99.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	13.9	14.0	15.3	14.8	14.5
DEN	14.4	16.5	15.4	14.0	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eric Montross	7	8	0.16	-0.66	0.82	-0.02	6	-8	14	16.7	14.3	2.40	16.2	14.9	1.31
Chucky Atkins	49	53	0.10	-0.60	0.69	-0.20	10	-12	22	13.3	15.7	-2.38	16.7	13.1	3.55
Mateen Cleaves	41	39	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.04	0	-2	2	14.9	14.2	0.72	13.1	16.3	-3.19
Billy Owens	32	32	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.14	-1	-1	0	16.6	13.4	3.19	14.4	15.4	-0.96
Mikki Moore	49	51	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.46	8	-10	18	14.9	14.1	0.84	15.6	14.5	1.08
Michael Curry	55	56	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.14	-4	2	-6	13.8	15.4	-1.62	15.8	14.1	1.71
Ben Wallace	67	66	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.08	-6	4	-10	13.8	16.0	-2.19	15.2	14.8	0.35
Jerry Stackhouse	74	75	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.45	-3	1	-4	13.9	16.5	-2.61	15.8	12.7	3.08
Dana Barros	40	39	-0.59	0.09	-0.69	-0.36	-8	6	-14	15.9	13.5	2.41	12.8	16.5	-3.66
Joe Smith	71	71	-0.67	0.17	-0.85	-0.32	-12	10	-22	14.6	14.1	0.50	14.4	16.7	-2.23

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Raef LaFrentz	74	74	0.72	-0.22	0.93	0.42	10	-8	18	14.7	16.0	-1.31	14.7	13.7	1.09
Voshon Lenard	55	54	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.54	0	2	-2	16.1	13.7	2.49	14.9	13.9	1.00
Antonio McDyess	88	87	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.42	3	-1	4	15.6	10.1	5.51	14.4	15.3	-0.91
Nick Van Exel	75	75	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.45	1	1	0	15.8	12.7	3.13	14.0	16.2	-2.25
George McCloud	56	56	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.34	-1	3	-4	15.2	14.8	0.46	15.5	13.1	2.32
Ryan Bowen	14	14	0.28	0.22	0.06	-0.07	12	-10	22	9.0	16.1	-7.06	16.1	14.2	1.94
Robert Pack	33	33	0.05	0.45	-0.39	-0.03	3	-1	4	12.7	16.2	-3.55	15.1	14.2	0.87
James Posey	53	52	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	0.11	-5	7	-12	15.5	14.5	1.00	13.4	15.7	-2.25
Keon Clark	34	33	-0.23	0.73	-0.95	0.04	-9	11	-20	14.3	15.5	-1.16	14.2	14.7	-0.50

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.4,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.59,0.55,0.53,0.58,0.63,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.37,0.36,0.39,0.34,0.23,0.16,0.2,0.29,0.25,0.33,0.3,0.24,0.23,0.2,0.25,0.15,0.08,0.13,0.15,0.13,0.25,0.38,0.58,0.59,0.71,0.93,0.9,0.84,0.91,0.91,1
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 97, WAS 107	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.47,0.5,0.56,0.56,0.64,0.66,0.63,0.57,0.53,0.58,0.57,0.55,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.36,0.39,0.33,0.27,0.27,0.29,0.25,0.2,0.17,0.16,0.26,0.2,0.22,0.14,0.13,0.08,0.15,0.22,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.53,0.54,0.78,0.86,0.93,0.93,0.99,1	92.1%
MEM 92, HOU 100	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.56,0.55,0.59,0.63,0.65,0.64,0.58,0.57,0.66,0.66,0.61,0.5,0.44,0.44,0.52,0.41,0.33,0.39,0.27,0.27,0.26,0.23,0.22,0.19,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.19,0.2,0.12,0.15,0.26,0.16,0.18,0.24,0.42,0.59,0.71,0.83,0.76,0.89,0.97,0.99,1	91.7%
SAS 78, CLE 82	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.48,0.49,0.44,0.51,0.55,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.44,0.5,0.49,0.47,0.38,0.29,0.31,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.31,0.23,0.29,0.3,0.31,0.26,0.31,0.33,0.36,0.29,0.29,0.24,0.2,0.26,0.24,0.26,0.3,0.34,0.47,0.47,0.59,0.76,0.87,0.9,0.85,0.91,0.99,1	91.7%