NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	97		Excitement	6.5 [479]		MVP	Josh Howard (WAS): +31.9%
Washington Wizards	107		Comeback	11.9 [51]		LVP	Carmelo Anthony (DEN): -22.4%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chauncey Billups	0.19	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.11,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.21,0.23,0.19,0.19	0.15	0.03	-0.01	15	76%	0.28	3	-0.09	7	100%	0.05
Nene	0.12	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.09	0.04	0.01	7	77%	0.17	2	-0.05	8	87%	0.02
Arron Afflalo	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.04	0.06	-0.00	8	56%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ty Lawson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	4	60%	0.05	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Malik Allen	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	4	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kenyon Martin	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.01	-0.02	6	37%	0.01	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.03
J.R. Smith	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	8	22%	-0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Carmelo Anthony	-0.22	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.02,0,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.22,-0.22	-0.10	-0.11	0.01	20	43%	-0.10	5	-0.12	14	64%	-0.03

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Josh Howard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.25,0.25,0.3,0.3,0.34,0.33,0.32,0.32	0.32	0.17	0.15	0.01	11	80%	0.32	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Al Thornton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.10	0.10	-0.00	12	64%	0.23	1	-0.03	9	78%	0.02
James Singleton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.01	0.11	-0.00	5	58%	0.15	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Nick Young	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.08	0.02	0.00	9	67%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andray Blatche	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.06	-0.03	0.03	13	64%	0.06	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Fabricio Oberto	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
JaVale McGee	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	0.01	-0.01	13	33%	-0.01	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Mike Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	6	37%	-0.01	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.01
Quinton Ross	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Earl Boykins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	0.01	11	46%	0.01	2	-0.07	4	100%	0.01
Randy Foye	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	6	17%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.1	2.4	40.3	0.2	28.1	2.6	31.5	131.3
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +30.6%

WAS +3.6%

WAS +11.1%

WAS +3.9%

WAS +0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	WAS	NBA	DEN	WAS	NBA
this game	15.0	16.1	15.3	105.4	115.1	106.0
season	14.4	15.7		110.3	102.6
opponent	15.3	15.5		107.9	106.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.5	14.1	15.3	16.3	15.0
WAS	16.1	15.9	16.7	15.7	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Malik Allen	44	45	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.13	0	-10	10	14.4	15.6	-1.20	15.4	16.7	-1.31
J.R. Smith	46	45	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.14	0	-10	10	15.7	14.4	1.24	15.8	16.4	-0.66
Carmelo Anthony	62	64	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.04	-6	-4	-2	15.3	14.5	0.74	16.8	14.4	2.40
Chauncey Billups	65	67	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.05	-8	-2	-6	15.3	14.5	0.78	16.7	14.4	2.32
Arron Afflalo	73	74	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.06	-9	-1	-8	14.1	18.5	-4.34	15.7	17.7	-2.06
Nene	68	67	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.21	-5	-5	0	15.2	14.4	0.83	16.5	15.0	1.52
Kenyon Martin	72	74	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.08	-15	5	-20	15.2	14.4	0.81	16.1	16.0	0.12
Ty Lawson	30	29	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.33	-7	-3	-4	15.3	14.9	0.35	14.6	16.8	-2.25

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh Howard	45	46	0.97	-0.47	1.44	0.24	25	-15	40	15.9	16.3	-0.45	15.2	14.9	0.33
Nick Young	44	43	0.78	-0.28	1.05	0.25	18	-8	26	15.9	16.2	-0.31	15.1	15.0	0.16
Earl Boykins	53	53	0.71	-0.21	0.91	0.18	18	-8	26	16.0	16.3	-0.31	15.0	15.1	-0.12
James Singleton	40	39	0.68	-0.18	0.85	0.29	13	-3	16	15.8	16.3	-0.52	15.1	15.0	0.08
Al Thornton	63	60	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.19	12	-2	14	16.2	15.9	0.29	15.3	14.5	0.86
Fabricio Oberto	26	27	-0.12	0.62	-0.73	-0.03	-3	13	-16	16.4	16.0	0.40	15.0	15.0	-0.05
Andray Blatche	53	53	-0.18	0.68	-0.85	-0.09	-3	13	-16	16.3	15.8	0.52	15.0	15.1	-0.08
Randy Foye	39	37	-0.18	0.68	-0.87	-0.01	-6	16	-22	16.7	15.7	1.03	15.3	14.8	0.49
Quinton Ross	9	10	-0.20	0.70	-0.89	0.10	-10	20	-30	13.9	16.3	-2.44	14.4	15.1	-0.71
JaVale McGee	44	43	-0.23	0.73	-0.96	-0.05	-6	16	-22	16.1	16.1	0.03	14.4	15.6	-1.15
Mike Miller	49	49	-0.28	0.78	-1.05	-0.04	-8	18	-26	16.2	15.9	0.31	15.0	15.1	-0.16

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.47,0.5,0.56,0.56,0.64,0.66,0.63,0.57,0.53,0.58,0.57,0.55,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.36,0.39,0.33,0.27,0.27,0.29,0.25,0.2,0.17,0.16,0.26,0.2,0.22,0.14,0.13,0.08,0.15,0.22,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.53,0.54,0.78,0.86,0.93,0.93,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 92, HOU 100	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.56,0.55,0.59,0.63,0.65,0.64,0.58,0.57,0.66,0.66,0.61,0.5,0.44,0.44,0.52,0.41,0.33,0.39,0.27,0.27,0.26,0.23,0.22,0.19,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.19,0.2,0.12,0.15,0.26,0.16,0.18,0.24,0.42,0.59,0.71,0.83,0.76,0.89,0.97,0.99,1	93.0%
ATL 115, OKC 123	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.55,0.59,0.64,0.65,0.57,0.53,0.6,0.66,0.58,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.4,0.38,0.37,0.41,0.39,0.46,0.39,0.33,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.28,0.17,0.24,0.19,0.23,0.32,0.24,0.18,0.12,0.21,0.3,0.34,0.34,0.24,0.19,0.47,0.54,0.78,0.93,0.98,0.99,1,1	92.8%
BOS 83, ATL 88	0.5,0.51,0.53,0.52,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.59,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.54,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.47,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.46,0.36,0.27,0.24,0.18,0.17,0.26,0.19,0.18,0.19,0.16,0.17,0.14,0.18,0.26,0.3,0.53,0.47,0.42,0.47,0.71,0.67,0.8,0.85,0.84,0.92,1	92.4%