NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	96		Excitement	4.8 [838]		MVP	Eddie Jones (MIA): +11.0%
Denver Nuggets	85		Comeback	1.8 [606]		LVP	James Posey (DEN): -15.4%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eddie Jones	0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.1,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.09	0.02	0.00	16	74%	0.21	4	-0.10	6	83%	0.02
Anthony Mason	0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.05	0.04	-0.00	10	65%	0.11	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Anthony Carter	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	0.01	0.03	8	67%	0.05	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Eddie House	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	83%	-0.00	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.00
Tim Hardaway	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	0.01	0.02	11	54%	0.05	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.02
Cedric Ceballos	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	-0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.06	0.00	-0.04	11	37%	-0.01	1	-0.01	2	50%	0.00
A.C. Green	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Brian Grant	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.10	-0.04	-0.00	13	43%	-0.05	4	-0.09	2	100%	0.01

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ryan Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	-0.00	2	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nick Van Exel	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.02	-0.01	10	55%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
George McCloud	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.08	-0.01	0.07	11	69%	0.02	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.01
Keon Clark	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0.02	3	67%	-0.02	1	-0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Mark Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	21	47%	-0.01	2	-0.04	5	80%	0.01
Tracy Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Robert Pack	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	0.00	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Voshon Lenard	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	0.00	10	41%	-0.05	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Raef LaFrentz	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.10	-0.02	-0.01	4	0%	-0.06	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
James Posey	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.07	-0.06	0.03	10	50%	-0.05	3	-0.11	6	67%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.0	1.6	26.2	15.4	27.3	1.6	30.6	126.6
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +38.6%

MIA +2.5%

MIA +1.3%

MIA +5.3%

MIA +2.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	DEN	NBA	MIA	DEN	NBA
this game	16.1	14.3	15.5	101.1	90.4	100.9
season	16.3	15.2		98.4	101.4
opponent	15.2	16.1		104.1	96.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	18.7	15.0	15.8	15.0	16.1
DEN	12.6	15.6	15.5	13.8	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anthony Mason	72	70	0.62	-0.12	0.74	-0.06	23	-12	35	15.9	16.8	-0.92	14.8	13.1	1.63
Bruce Bowen	70	68	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.11	12	-1	13	16.1	16.3	-0.21	14.2	14.6	-0.38
Tim Hardaway	61	61	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.08	10	1	9	16.8	14.9	1.94	14.8	13.6	1.18
Anthony Carter	64	63	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.10	7	4	3	15.8	16.8	-1.01	13.8	15.4	-1.51
Eddie Jones	63	64	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.03	9	2	7	16.3	15.8	0.52	14.9	13.1	1.87
A.C. Green	49	48	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.19	1	10	-9	16.2	16.1	0.08	13.2	15.6	-2.40
Brian Grant	65	66	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.16	0	11	-11	16.6	15.1	1.55	15.0	12.8	2.21
Cedric Ceballos	26	26	0.08	0.42	-0.35	0.19	-4	15	-19	15.3	16.4	-1.07	13.4	14.7	-1.32
Eddie House	5	4	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	14	-17	11.0	16.4	-5.41	10.2	14.5	-4.27

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ryan Bowen	20	20	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	-0.11	3	-14	17	12.2	14.9	-2.66	17.0	15.9	1.17
Mark Strickland	8	7	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.02	-3	-8	5	12.5	14.5	-2.01	18.0	16.0	2.02
James Posey	66	68	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.13	-1	-10	9	15.0	12.9	2.06	15.9	16.7	-0.86
Robert Pack	12	11	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	0.07	-8	-3	-5	14.4	14.3	0.09	14.5	16.3	-1.79
Keon Clark	37	37	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.03	-6	-5	-1	15.2	13.8	1.44	14.7	17.1	-2.38
George McCloud	51	50	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.11	-5	-6	1	13.5	15.4	-1.90	15.9	16.4	-0.52
Voshon Lenard	57	59	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.12	-5	-6	1	14.8	13.6	1.27	16.4	15.7	0.65
Tracy Murray	19	19	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.03	-9	-2	-7	12.4	14.8	-2.41	15.7	16.2	-0.55
Antonio McDyess	79	81	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.19	-4	-7	3	14.2	15.1	-0.86	16.5	13.9	2.58
Raef LaFrentz	45	46	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.09	-9	-2	-7	15.1	13.7	1.44	16.8	15.4	1.40
Nick Van Exel	76	77	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.12	-8	-3	-5	14.5	13.7	0.83	16.1	16.2	-0.12

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.55,0.61,0.55,0.53,0.6,0.65,0.6,0.6,0.55,0.44,0.44,0.47,0.52,0.46,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.5,0.42,0.46,0.34,0.22,0.29,0.18,0.2,0.18,0.2,0.16,0.21,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.15,0.11,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 92, SAS 80	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.42,0.38,0.42,0.3,0.27,0.19,0.18,0.17,0.18,0.13,0.17,0.21,0.15,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.03,0.07,0.02,0.01,0,0,0	95.0%
MIL 96, TOR 85	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.55,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.6,0.65,0.58,0.49,0.42,0.47,0.4,0.39,0.39,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.33,0.3,0.24,0.18,0.17,0.16,0.2,0.16,0.18,0.1,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0	94.1%
IND 105, NOH 93	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.59,0.65,0.65,0.55,0.62,0.65,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.58,0.61,0.49,0.36,0.41,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.41,0.37,0.31,0.24,0.24,0.32,0.2,0.19,0.21,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	94.1%