NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	92		Excitement	4.9 [861]		MVP	Michael Finley (SAS): +11.9%
San Antonio Spurs	80		Comeback	1.7 [359]		LVP	Tony Parker (SAS): -19.5%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwight Howard	0.10	0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.08	0.03	0.01	15	59%	0.15	2	-0.04	7	57%	-0.02
Darko Milicic	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.02	-0.01	9	64%	0.11	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.01
Hedo Turkoglu	0.03	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.06	-0.01	0.02	11	60%	0.06	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.00
Jameer Nelson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.00	-0.03	17	53%	0.10	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
DeShawn Stevenson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	-0.01	-0.02	9	48%	0.04	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.00
Keyon Dooling	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	6	50%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Trevor Ariza	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Battie	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	9	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Finley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.10	0.01	-0.01	10	70%	0.12	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Robert Horry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.03	-0.02	9	50%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.11,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.08	-0.04	0.00	19	65%	0.18	5	-0.14	10	70%	-0.03
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	75%	0.05	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Fabricio Oberto	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nick Van Exel	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nazr Mohammed	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	3	25%	-0.04	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.04
Beno Udrih	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Brent Barry	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.10	-0.02	-0.01	11	22%	-0.10	1	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01
Tony Parker	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.11	-0.08	0.01	11	55%	0.01	7	-0.20	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.4	3.5	29.2	16.8	26.1	2.5	26.5	128.9
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +10.5%

ORL +13.2%

ORL +2.2%

ORL +23.0%

ORL +1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	SAS	NBA	ORL	SAS	NBA
this game	17.3	17.0	15.6	109.5	95.2	104.4
season	16.4	16.3		104.4	106.0
opponent	15.6	15.7		99.4	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	15.7	15.6	15.7	23.9	17.3
SAS	15.7	18.7	15.7	18.4	17.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwight Howard	66	66	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.08	13	-1	14	17.8	15.7	2.11	16.9	17.3	-0.40
Jameer Nelson	64	64	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.14	9	3	6	16.8	19.0	-2.27	16.2	19.3	-3.13
Hedo Turkoglu	66	64	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.11	10	2	8	16.7	19.7	-3.06	16.1	19.6	-3.52
DeShawn Stevenson	68	69	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.13	8	4	4	18.1	14.0	4.10	17.4	14.9	2.55
Tony Battie	54	54	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.14	5	7	-2	16.9	18.1	-1.21	17.0	16.9	0.05
Darko Milicic	48	48	0.26	0.24	0.01	0.08	6	6	0	17.2	17.5	-0.31	17.1	16.8	0.23
Keyon Dooling	36	35	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.02	7	5	2	16.8	17.7	-0.90	17.4	16.6	0.80
Trevor Ariza	18	20	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.04	2	10	-8	19.7	16.7	3.06	19.6	16.1	3.52

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Fabricio Oberto	2	1	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.06	-2	-10	8	12.0	17.1	-5.09	21.0	17.3	3.72
Tony Parker	47	49	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	-0.18	4	-16	20	15.7	18.6	-2.87	16.6	18.4	-1.80
Beno Udrih	11	9	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	0.06	-7	-5	-2	18.0	16.8	1.19	14.9	17.6	-2.72
Rasho Nesterovic	41	40	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.03	-4	-8	4	15.8	18.0	-2.22	17.4	17.2	0.25
Brent Barry	48	47	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.03	-7	-5	-2	16.1	18.2	-2.10	16.0	18.9	-2.90
Nazr Mohammed	27	27	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	0.02	-9	-3	-6	17.9	16.5	1.31	16.7	17.6	-0.96
Robert Horry	32	34	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.09	-6	-6	0	17.2	16.8	0.46	18.0	16.8	1.19
Nick Van Exel	26	26	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.03	-9	-3	-6	18.8	16.1	2.67	19.6	16.3	3.27
Bruce Bowen	60	61	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.25	-2	-10	8	17.0	17.0	0.01	17.8	16.0	1.82
Tim Duncan	66	66	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.26	-3	-9	6	17.3	15.7	1.65	17.1	18.2	-1.08
Michael Finley	60	60	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.02	-15	3	-18	17.7	15.2	2.52	17.8	16.1	1.73

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.42,0.38,0.42,0.3,0.27,0.19,0.18,0.17,0.18,0.13,0.17,0.21,0.15,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.03,0.07,0.02,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 111, CLE 103	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.39,0.43,0.46,0.51,0.59,0.51,0.59,0.57,0.58,0.62,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.59,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.33,0.39,0.28,0.25,0.27,0.3,0.23,0.17,0.25,0.21,0.2,0.25,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0	95.5%
MIA 96, DEN 85	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.55,0.61,0.55,0.53,0.6,0.65,0.6,0.6,0.55,0.44,0.44,0.47,0.52,0.46,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.5,0.42,0.46,0.34,0.22,0.29,0.18,0.2,0.18,0.2,0.16,0.21,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.15,0.11,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0	95.0%
LAL 109, NJN 84	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.52,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.65,0.64,0.6,0.57,0.6,0.55,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.44,0.41,0.46,0.44,0.36,0.44,0.46,0.43,0.34,0.26,0.24,0.24,0.21,0.17,0.16,0.15,0.2,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.03,0.02,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.0%