NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	84		Excitement	4.8 [830]		MVP	Rasheed Wallace (POR): +15.8%
Portland Trail Blazers	95		Comeback	1.6 [1004]		LVP	Michael Finley (DAL): -16.0%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Christian Laettner	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	-0.00	0.02	6	69%	0.04	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Courtney Alexander	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	-0.01	15	59%	0.07	3	-0.06	4	100%	0.02
Loy Vaught	0.01	0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.03	6	50%	0.03	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Eduardo Najera	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Bradley	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	5	40%	-0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Howard Eisley	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	4	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Nash	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.03	0.01	0.06	10	64%	-0.01	5	-0.08	5	100%	0.04
Dirk Nowitzki	-0.10	0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.04	-0.04	0.02	11	57%	-0.01	3	-0.09	8	87%	0.01
Michael Finley	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.19	-0.02	-0.06	17	29%	-0.05	5	-0.11	0	0%	0.00

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rasheed Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.14	0.04	0.01	17	74%	0.20	2	-0.04	4	75%	0.01
Stacey Augmon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.03	0.00	-0.04	5	67%	0.07	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.00
Greg Anthony	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.05	0.02	7	57%	0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Will Perdue	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Scottie Pippen	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	12	50%	0.03	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Dale Davis	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.07	0.00	-0.03	7	31%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Shawn Kemp	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.08	0.02	-0.02	6	57%	0.04	5	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Steven Smith	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.05	0.01	13	58%	0.03	2	-0.09	7	100%	0.03
Damon Stoudamire	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.09	-0.01	-0.02	7	37%	-0.02	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	2.0	26.3	0.8	26.0	2.5	29.5	111.5
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +49.2%

DAL -1.5%

POR +6.5%

DAL -4.4%

POR +0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	POR	NBA	DAL	POR	NBA
this game	16.7	15.9	15.5	95.5	106.7	100.9
season	15.2	15.8		104.6	103.9
opponent	15.8	15.3		100.3	101.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	15.6	17.5	18.0	15.7	16.7
POR	12.7	17.6	13.3	21.1	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Christian Laettner	43	42	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.09	1	-12	13	17.2	16.2	0.96	15.1	16.6	-1.48
Howard Eisley	32	32	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.20	3	-14	17	17.4	16.3	1.12	17.2	15.1	2.08
Eduardo Najera	9	9	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.01	-5	-6	1	14.9	16.9	-2.01	12.7	16.2	-3.55
Dirk Nowitzki	66	67	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.13	-4	-7	3	15.9	19.1	-3.26	16.6	13.7	2.89
Loy Vaught	53	53	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	0.04	-13	2	-15	17.7	15.2	2.43	14.9	17.2	-2.34
Courtney Alexander	50	51	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.19	-5	-6	1	17.0	16.3	0.71	17.2	14.0	3.24
Michael Finley	82	83	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.17	-8	-3	-5	16.7	17.2	-0.51	15.8	16.3	-0.51
Shawn Bradley	39	41	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.09	-11	0	-11	16.4	17.0	-0.60	15.0	16.5	-1.49
Steve Nash	66	67	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.05	-13	2	-15	16.3	17.8	-1.50	15.7	16.5	-0.80

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rasheed Wallace	76	77	0.58	-0.08	0.66	-0.01	20	-9	29	15.7	16.8	-1.07	17.3	12.2	5.16
Steven Smith	70	71	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.04	16	-5	21	15.1	18.7	-3.67	16.8	16.4	0.35
Damon Stoudamire	50	48	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.07	10	1	9	14.0	18.3	-4.32	18.1	15.0	3.15
Scottie Pippen	71	68	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.16	4	7	-3	15.6	16.8	-1.23	16.6	17.0	-0.46
Shawn Kemp	33	33	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.03	8	3	5	15.1	16.3	-1.26	16.1	17.1	-1.01
Stacey Augmon	50	49	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.20	1	10	-9	18.1	13.0	5.13	16.8	16.6	0.23
Dale Davis	55	54	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.21	-2	13	-15	16.0	15.7	0.29	16.1	17.6	-1.51
Greg Anthony	39	40	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.11	1	10	-9	18.3	14.0	4.32	15.0	18.1	-3.15
Will Perdue	1	0	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	0.08	-3	14	-17	8.0	15.9	-7.94	0.0	16.7	-16.69

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.54,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.42,0.51,0.66,0.68,0.66,0.6,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.67,0.67,0.65,0.66,0.67,0.7,0.7,0.74,0.71,0.79,0.82,0.89,0.87,0.9,0.93,0.95,0.95,0.96,0.95,0.95,0.99,0.98,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 82, LAL 99	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.43,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.66,0.72,0.66,0.62,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.59,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.58,0.58,0.69,0.74,0.67,0.67,0.64,0.77,0.71,0.81,0.82,0.83,0.85,0.94,0.95,0.97,0.97,0.93,0.92,0.95,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1	95.1%
CLE 77, TOR 92	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.47,0.46,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.47,0.54,0.57,0.58,0.64,0.67,0.62,0.65,0.63,0.53,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.73,0.7,0.62,0.66,0.73,0.81,0.76,0.77,0.77,0.78,0.88,0.9,0.91,0.96,0.93,0.93,0.96,0.95,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.9%
WAS 87, BOS 108	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.53,0.54,0.62,0.62,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.54,0.54,0.61,0.59,0.61,0.64,0.67,0.63,0.49,0.61,0.67,0.79,0.82,0.8,0.69,0.79,0.81,0.9,0.92,0.92,0.97,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.9%