NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	92		Excitement	4.3 [930]		MVP	Nick Van Exel (DEN): +22.8%
Denver Nuggets	102		Comeback	5.5 [80]		LVP	Danny Ferry (SAS): -11.7%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Malik Rose	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	6	71%	0.05	1	-0.02	5	80%	-0.01
Sean Elliott	0.01	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.04	-0.02	0.02	9	56%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Daniels	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.04	0.01	-0.04	10	36%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Steve Kerr	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.05	0.00	0.05	2	100%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Avery Johnson	-0.00	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	0.00	6	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derek Anderson	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.02	-0.01	10	62%	0.08	3	-0.09	4	100%	0.01
Tim Duncan	-0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	16	52%	0.01	2	-0.03	8	87%	0.01
Terry Porter	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
David Robinson	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.07	-0.01	-0.03	10	46%	-0.01	2	-0.04	6	67%	-0.01
Danny Ferry	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.16	-0.01	-0.06	10	10%	-0.07	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nick Van Exel	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.17,0.17,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.20	0.05	0.03	17	79%	0.24	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
James Posey	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.12	0.05	-0.02	8	88%	0.20	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.02	0.02	-0.05	16	62%	0.12	4	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Terry Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	1	100%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robert Pack	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	2	67%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Tariq Abdul-Wahad	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	0.01	1	100%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Keon Clark	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.06	0.01	-0.04	10	36%	0.00	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Voshon Lenard	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.05	0.00	0.08	10	70%	0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Raef LaFrentz	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	6	40%	-0.03	0	0.00	3	0%	-0.05
George McCloud	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.09	-0.00	-0.04	6	29%	-0.03	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	2.3	31.6	15.6	22.2	1.8	25.0	123.6
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +58.6%

SAS -0.9%

SAS -5.0%

DEN +2.6%

SAS -5.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	DEN	NBA	SAS	DEN	NBA
this game	16.4	16.0	15.5	100.0	118.6	100.9
season	15.9	15.2		103.4	101.4
opponent	15.2	15.5		104.1	96.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	16.2	16.4	16.0	16.9	16.4
DEN	15.8	14.8	14.5	19.1	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
David Robinson	48	43	0.14	-0.64	0.79	0.06	3	-13	16	15.7	17.0	-1.32	15.6	16.3	-0.72
Terry Porter	24	21	0.13	-0.63	0.75	-0.05	6	-16	22	15.6	16.6	-0.99	18.1	15.3	2.79
Steve Kerr	9	10	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.26	9	-19	28	14.4	16.6	-2.12	19.8	15.5	4.31
Antonio Daniels	49	45	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	-0.15	4	-14	18	16.1	16.7	-0.64	17.9	13.9	3.99
Malik Rose	46	45	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.32	4	-14	18	16.1	16.6	-0.54	17.5	14.3	3.19
Danny Ferry	45	42	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.29	-1	-9	8	15.9	16.8	-0.88	17.4	14.7	2.72
Sean Elliott	51	47	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	0.10	-18	8	-26	17.1	15.4	1.66	14.2	18.2	-4.01
Avery Johnson	43	41	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.05	-14	4	-18	16.7	16.1	0.64	13.9	17.9	-3.99
Derek Anderson	59	55	-0.62	0.12	-0.75	0.11	-25	15	-40	16.9	15.3	1.65	14.5	18.6	-4.15
Tim Duncan	76	70	-0.64	0.14	-0.77	0.10	-25	15	-40	17.1	12.7	4.37	15.2	19.4	-4.16

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Voshon Lenard	65	69	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.07	20	-10	30	15.3	18.1	-2.79	16.6	15.6	1.00
Nick Van Exel	69	74	0.62	-0.12	0.74	-0.14	26	-16	42	15.5	17.9	-2.36	17.0	13.6	3.48
James Posey	50	52	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.19	10	0	10	15.4	16.8	-1.41	16.1	16.7	-0.69
Antonio McDyess	63	71	0.26	0.24	0.02	-0.03	10	0	10	15.7	16.7	-1.02	16.5	15.7	0.84
George McCloud	39	42	0.23	0.27	-0.03	0.06	6	4	2	16.1	15.9	0.12	16.9	15.9	1.00
Keon Clark	53	56	0.22	0.28	-0.05	0.17	2	8	-6	16.6	15.1	1.51	16.6	16.0	0.59
Terry Davis	23	22	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.22	-2	12	-14	18.6	15.0	3.52	15.1	16.7	-1.61
Raef LaFrentz	29	32	0.08	0.42	-0.33	0.02	2	8	-6	14.8	16.6	-1.86	16.6	16.2	0.41
Robert Pack	18	19	-0.07	0.57	-0.63	0.34	-14	24	-38	17.2	15.7	1.56	12.9	17.3	-4.37
Tariq Abdul-Wahad	21	23	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	0.13	-10	20	-30	18.1	15.3	2.79	15.6	16.6	-1.00

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.39,0.42,0.34,0.36,0.33,0.31,0.36,0.42,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.25,0.23,0.2,0.18,0.17,0.2,0.17,0.19,0.3,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.44,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.72,0.77,0.8,0.89,0.94,0.94,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.97,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 89, BOS 96	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.35,0.36,0.38,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.31,0.25,0.26,0.32,0.32,0.2,0.22,0.28,0.33,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.69,0.77,0.84,0.9,0.85,0.89,0.86,0.89,0.9,0.94,0.96,0.99,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,1	94.7%
BOS 100, GSW 122	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.4,0.33,0.34,0.38,0.4,0.38,0.32,0.28,0.31,0.34,0.31,0.2,0.22,0.21,0.24,0.24,0.25,0.27,0.27,0.35,0.45,0.39,0.39,0.45,0.48,0.59,0.66,0.76,0.86,0.87,0.96,0.98,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.0%
LAC 83, MIN 104	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.41,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.43,0.33,0.31,0.34,0.35,0.36,0.34,0.35,0.31,0.24,0.2,0.19,0.18,0.28,0.36,0.33,0.42,0.35,0.28,0.39,0.52,0.55,0.65,0.68,0.66,0.77,0.87,0.87,0.92,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	93.4%