NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	80		Excitement	6.9 [414]		MVP	Clar. Weatherspoon (CLE): +6.6%
Cleveland Cavaliers	85		Comeback	2.7 [307]		LVP	Andre Miller (CLE): -21.9%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eddie House	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Hardaway	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.02	0.01	-0.03	0.00	15	53%	0.04	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
A.C. Green	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Jones	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.03	0.02	19	44%	-0.02	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.04
Duane Causwell	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.01	-0.04	0.01	8	50%	-0.03	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Anthony Mason	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	8	73%	0.10	5	-0.17	6	100%	0.05
Brian Grant	-0.14	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.11	-0.05	-0.01	12	48%	0.02	5	-0.16	5	80%	-0.01
Anthony Carter	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.09	-0.08	0.01	5	25%	-0.11	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Bruce Bowen	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.18	-0.07	-0.11	0.00	7	14%	-0.18	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Clar. Weatherspoon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07	0.07	-0.01	0.05	-0.03	9	57%	0.08	1	-0.02	10	80%	0.02
Trajan Langdon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	2	86%	0.03	0	0.00	3	100%	0.00
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.05	-0.01	0.01	11	64%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Michael Hawkins	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Harpring	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.04	0.04	0.00	12	50%	0.08	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Robert Traylor	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	5	40%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Chris Gatling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.11,0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	11	56%	0.02	3	-0.09	5	60%	-0.06
Cedric Henderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	1	25%	-0.05	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.03
Lamond Murray	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	8	44%	0.01	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Andre Miller	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.21,-0.21,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.22	-0.15	-0.07	-0.01	10	37%	-0.13	4	-0.08	7	86%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.1	1.8	29.7	15.0	26.8	1.8	36.0	134.2
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CLE +35.7%

MIA -7.2%

CLE +12.1%

CLE +11.2%

MIA -1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	CLE	NBA	MIA	CLE	NBA
this game	17.5	15.8	15.5	92.0	98.8	100.9
season	16.3	15.3		98.4	98.4
opponent	15.6	16.1		102.6	96.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.7	16.3	17.5	19.9	17.5
CLE	15.3	16.4	15.2	16.1	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eddie House	1	0	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.00	0	-5	5	3.0	17.7	-14.69	0.0	15.8	-15.77
A.C. Green	11	11	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	0.06	-7	2	-9	13.8	18.1	-4.23	14.9	15.9	-0.98
Brian Grant	74	72	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.34	6	-11	17	17.7	16.7	0.97	16.1	14.1	2.03
Tim Hardaway	66	64	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.19	-3	-2	-1	17.8	16.6	1.18	15.6	16.2	-0.56
Bruce Bowen	47	45	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.22	-3	-2	-1	17.5	17.5	0.03	16.0	15.5	0.58
Duane Causwell	43	45	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.00	-11	6	-17	17.7	17.3	0.40	15.8	15.7	0.16
Anthony Mason	78	77	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.35	0	-5	5	17.7	16.0	1.69	15.5	17.8	-2.25
Eddie Jones	77	76	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.38	-3	-2	-1	17.5	17.7	-0.21	15.4	18.4	-2.98
Anthony Carter	38	40	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.36	-4	-1	-3	17.6	17.4	0.20	16.3	15.3	1.09

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Cedric Henderson	44	43	0.84	-0.34	1.17	0.34	17	-12	29	15.7	15.8	-0.13	18.0	17.0	0.95
Matt Harpring	60	61	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.37	1	4	-3	16.4	14.3	2.04	18.7	14.8	3.86
Andre Miller	75	76	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.38	-2	7	-9	15.9	14.6	1.30	17.3	18.8	-1.49
Clar. Weatherspoon	64	65	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.39	-3	8	-11	15.7	16.0	-0.37	18.2	15.5	2.76
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	49	46	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.09	7	-2	9	15.1	16.7	-1.59	18.4	16.6	1.81
Chris Gatling	37	40	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.32	-4	9	-13	16.7	15.1	1.59	16.9	18.0	-1.14
Robert Traylor	22	22	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.01	6	-1	7	16.0	15.7	0.37	15.5	18.2	-2.76
Michael Hawkins	11	11	0.18	0.32	-0.14	-0.09	9	-4	13	14.6	15.9	-1.30	18.8	17.3	1.49
Trajan Langdon	26	27	0.10	0.40	-0.30	-0.07	6	-1	7	14.3	16.4	-2.04	14.4	18.9	-4.56
Lamond Murray	42	44	-0.34	0.84	-1.17	0.02	-12	17	-29	15.8	15.7	0.13	17.0	18.0	-0.95

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.59,0.6,0.6,0.59,0.57,0.63,0.58,0.55,0.5,0.45,0.45,0.55,0.58,0.61,0.66,0.68,0.69,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.5,0.46,0.42,0.27,0.33,0.33,0.38,0.35,0.31,0.31,0.33,0.42,0.58,0.66,0.7,0.67,0.73,0.66,0.71,0.67,0.62,0.85,0.94,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
BKN 109, CLE 119	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.57,0.66,0.63,0.67,0.6,0.6,0.57,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.54,0.49,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.45,0.37,0.39,0.42,0.33,0.42,0.32,0.28,0.31,0.27,0.36,0.5,0.48,0.67,0.67,0.68,0.59,0.65,0.54,0.81,0.85,0.94,1,1	93.1%
IND 89, MIA 95	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.53,0.58,0.54,0.61,0.66,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.49,0.43,0.36,0.42,0.36,0.42,0.38,0.41,0.37,0.37,0.36,0.46,0.52,0.57,0.67,0.63,0.78,0.71,0.78,0.81,0.89,0.78,0.91,1	92.0%
MIA 65, NYK 72	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.53,0.59,0.63,0.63,0.63,0.65,0.65,0.64,0.62,0.65,0.6,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.58,0.52,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.4,0.4,0.39,0.32,0.3,0.29,0.32,0.38,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.66,0.67,0.71,0.72,0.83,0.76,0.66,0.71,0.84,0.86,0.92,1	91.9%