NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	102		Excitement	7.1 [371]		MVP	Vince Carter (TOR): +31.1%
Toronto Raptors	111		Comeback	10.4 [218]		LVP	Sam Cassell (MIL): -13.2%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ervin Johnson	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.02	0.05	-0.01	4	75%	0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Glenn Robinson	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.05	-0.02	0.04	-0.03	26	47%	0.08	2	-0.03	1	0%	-0.04
Ray Allen	0.05	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.12	-0.03	0.03	20	66%	0.11	2	-0.06	4	75%	0.01
Mark Pope	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	3	83%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Caffey	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	4	62%	0.01	0	0.00	5	40%	-0.07
Joel Przybilla	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Lindsey Hunter	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	6	25%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Thomas	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.04	-0.07	0.00	11	46%	-0.05	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Sam Cassell	-0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.11	-0.05	-0.03	17	37%	-0.03	3	-0.10	1	100%	0.01

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Vince Carter	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.06,-0.07,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.16,0.22,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31	0.31	0.10	0.18	-0.03	31	60%	0.36	2	-0.05	18	94%	0.10
Alvin Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.04	0.00	10	54%	0.06	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Mark Jackson	0,0,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.07	0.00	0.02	6	81%	0.08	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.03
Dell Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Willis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Corliss Williamson	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	3	70%	0.02	2	-0.04	4	75%	-0.00
Michael Stewart	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Morris Peterson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	3	25%	-0.04	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Charles Oakley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.09	-0.01	-0.03	8	30%	-0.06	1	-0.01	4	75%	0.02
Antonio Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.1,-0.11,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	9	55%	-0.03	2	-0.07	13	69%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	2.5	29.4	15.5	28.5	2.5	40.2	142.7
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL -8.3%

TOR +51.5%

TOR +4.3%

TOR +4.6%

MIL -2.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	TOR	NBA	MIL	TOR	NBA
this game	15.3	15.7	15.5	110.9	118.1	100.9
season	14.9	15.8		105.9	103.7
opponent	15.4	15.8		101.6	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	13.5	14.2	17.5	16.2	15.3
TOR	16.5	14.6	15.3	16.5	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mark Pope	54	56	0.11	-0.61	0.72	-0.07	6	-15	21	14.7	16.0	-1.26	15.2	16.4	-1.16
Joel Przybilla	27	28	0.05	-0.55	0.59	0.08	-1	-8	7	14.0	15.8	-1.73	16.0	15.6	0.37
Jason Caffey	27	28	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.11	-1	-8	7	15.8	15.0	0.78	16.5	15.4	1.14
Sam Cassell	73	73	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.08	-5	-4	-1	15.2	15.4	-0.14	15.2	17.3	-2.10
Glenn Robinson	79	80	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.09	-7	-2	-5	14.9	17.5	-2.65	15.7	15.9	-0.27
Tim Thomas	42	42	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.17	-7	-2	-5	16.5	14.2	2.24	16.1	15.4	0.67
Lindsey Hunter	54	57	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.35	-2	-7	5	15.1	15.4	-0.27	16.0	15.2	0.76
Ray Allen	77	79	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.15	-11	2	-13	15.0	16.4	-1.36	15.7	15.8	-0.12
Ervin Johnson	27	27	-0.73	0.23	-0.97	-0.24	-17	8	-25	17.1	14.5	2.62	15.8	15.7	0.16

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Charles Oakley	76	73	0.84	-0.34	1.18	0.14	24	-15	39	15.8	15.2	0.66	15.6	13.8	1.85
Alvin Williams	63	62	0.68	-0.18	0.87	0.18	17	-8	25	14.9	17.3	-2.37	16.0	13.8	2.17
Mark Jackson	78	75	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.22	13	-4	17	15.7	15.6	0.09	15.6	13.6	2.05
Antonio Davis	80	79	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.22	12	-3	15	15.8	15.1	0.66	15.5	13.6	1.92
Vince Carter	88	86	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.27	8	1	7	15.8	13.7	2.17	15.2	15.7	-0.43
Dell Curry	7	7	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	-0.01	-1	10	-11	11.3	16.1	-4.77	14.7	15.3	-0.59
Morris Peterson	14	13	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	-0.02	-3	12	-15	15.4	15.8	-0.41	14.7	15.4	-0.66
Michael Stewart	8	7	-0.12	0.62	-0.73	0.03	-5	14	-19	15.0	15.8	-0.77	15.3	15.3	0.03
Kevin Willis	20	21	-0.18	0.68	-0.87	0.08	-9	18	-27	16.0	15.6	0.44	13.5	15.8	-2.31
Corliss Williamson	36	37	-0.25	0.75	-1.00	0.07	-11	20	-31	17.2	14.8	2.37	13.4	16.5	-3.19

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.56,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.57,0.51,0.6,0.6,0.55,0.53,0.54,0.55,0.47,0.41,0.42,0.33,0.37,0.46,0.34,0.33,0.36,0.37,0.3,0.21,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.16,0.17,0.24,0.23,0.33,0.29,0.34,0.52,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.69,0.65,0.67,0.69,0.9,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 86, DAL 96	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.62,0.67,0.61,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.37,0.37,0.34,0.31,0.42,0.42,0.36,0.42,0.26,0.28,0.17,0.24,0.21,0.26,0.17,0.24,0.34,0.4,0.36,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.62,0.58,0.63,0.54,0.54,0.85,0.93,0.99,1,1	92.0%
SAC 90, NJN 98	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.59,0.54,0.57,0.61,0.57,0.6,0.55,0.54,0.63,0.6,0.64,0.51,0.42,0.42,0.37,0.31,0.34,0.29,0.3,0.25,0.18,0.19,0.2,0.18,0.19,0.21,0.23,0.28,0.31,0.27,0.37,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.53,0.47,0.69,0.97,0.99,1,1	91.8%
NYK 86, CHH 93	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.44,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.46,0.51,0.42,0.31,0.31,0.33,0.25,0.33,0.26,0.31,0.2,0.22,0.14,0.21,0.17,0.18,0.26,0.23,0.25,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.53,0.64,0.6,0.73,0.68,0.79,0.97,0.91,1	91.4%