NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	94		Excitement	8.8 [122]		MVP	Reggie Miller (IND): +85.2%
Indiana Pacers	96		Comeback	12.2 [83]		LVP	Scottie Pippen (CHI): -35.9%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Toni Kukoc	0.45	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.22,0.45,0.45	0.15	0.32	0.02	10	86%	0.45	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Steve Kerr	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.03	0.00	1	150%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luc Longley	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.01	-0.01	8	62%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bill Wennington	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Ron Harper	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	-0.00	6	72%	0.08	2	-0.06	6	83%	0.02
Scott Burrell	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Jordan	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.13,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.08	-0.11	0.01	-0.01	27	48%	0.11	6	-0.19	4	75%	0.00
Dennis Rodman	-0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.19	-0.05	-0.16	-0.02	5	40%	-0.02	2	-0.17	0	0%	0.00
Scottie Pippen	-0.36	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.2,-0.2,-0.36	-0.13	-0.24	-0.01	10	44%	-0.17	4	-0.19	7	29%	-0.19

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Reggie Miller	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.85	0.85	0.08	0.77	-0.00	11	62%	0.85	0	0.00	2	100%	0.03
Travis Best	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.24,0.12,0.2	0.20	0.04	0.15	-0.01	8	62%	0.23	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.12	0.07	0.06	0.00	5	80%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dale Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.07	-0.00	0.01	8	75%	0.09	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Rik Smits	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.08	-0.06	0.02	17	63%	0.03	1	-0.02	7	86%	0.02
Mark Jackson	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	9	44%	-0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.02	-0.08	-0.00	7	50%	-0.08	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.12
Chris Mullin	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.12	-0.04	-0.00	10	15%	-0.15	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Derrick McKey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,-0.28	-0.28	-0.02	-0.26	-0.00	6	46%	-0.10	1	-0.18	1	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.0	2.8	29.1	18.7	27.1	3.5	47.0	155.1
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND +27.0%

IND +9.2%

CHI -13.4%

IND +26.6%

IND +0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	IND	NBA	CHI	IND	NBA
this game	17.9	18.3	15.6	119.0	120.0	102.5
season	16.2	16.0		105.8	105.3
opponent	16.1	15.8		99.2	97.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	16.0	19.7	16.9	19.4	17.9
IND	19.0	18.2	17.4	18.5	18.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Scott Burrell	20	21	0.20	-0.70	0.90	-0.00	7	-9	16	18.8	17.7	1.14	19.1	18.0	1.11
Steve Kerr	14	16	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.14	6	-8	14	22.4	17.0	5.44	21.3	17.5	3.80
Bill Wennington	7	6	0.01	-0.51	0.51	0.04	-1	-1	0	21.3	17.6	3.66	22.7	17.9	4.75
Luc Longley	39	42	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	0.04	-3	1	-4	17.2	18.7	-1.52	17.9	18.7	-0.73
Dennis Rodman	69	70	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.45	0	-2	2	18.5	14.3	4.18	18.3	18.0	0.31
Ron Harper	58	56	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.32	-5	3	-8	16.6	21.8	-5.26	17.6	19.9	-2.35
Toni Kukoc	48	48	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.51	-1	-1	0	18.2	17.6	0.55	18.5	17.9	0.56
Michael Jordan	69	69	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.41	-5	3	-8	17.9	18.0	-0.06	17.8	21.5	-3.69
Scottie Pippen	71	72	-0.68	0.18	-0.85	-0.44	-8	6	-14	17.4	22.7	-5.34	18.0	20.4	-2.33

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rik Smits	63	62	0.74	-0.24	0.98	0.47	9	-7	16	17.8	20.1	-2.34	17.7	18.7	-0.96
Reggie Miller	71	70	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.45	7	-5	12	17.9	21.2	-3.32	18.1	17.1	0.95
Antonio Davis	49	48	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.53	4	-2	6	17.8	19.0	-1.13	18.5	17.0	1.51
Travis Best	36	36	0.63	-0.13	0.75	0.54	3	-1	4	18.5	18.1	0.46	18.8	17.3	1.52
Derrick McKey	46	45	0.62	-0.12	0.73	0.56	2	0	2	18.1	18.6	-0.49	18.7	17.0	1.72
Mark Jackson	44	43	-0.13	0.63	-0.75	-0.10	-1	3	-4	18.1	18.5	-0.46	17.3	18.8	-1.52
Chris Mullin	31	32	-0.17	0.67	-0.84	-0.17	0	2	-2	19.7	17.3	2.39	17.3	18.4	-1.07
Dale Davis	36	35	-0.19	0.69	-0.89	-0.05	-5	7	-12	19.1	17.6	1.47	16.4	19.2	-2.78
Jalen Rose	24	24	-0.29	0.79	-1.08	-0.03	-9	11	-20	18.9	18.0	0.86	18.7	17.6	1.09

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.5,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.35,0.37,0.37,0.42,0.39,0.31,0.21,0.3,0.33,0.29,0.23,0.28,0.36,0.27,0.38,0.29,0.21,0.18,0.23,0.15,0.19,0.15,0.34,0.2,0.15,0.11,0.35,0.22,0.53,0.54,0.67,0.28,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 87, MIA 88	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.52,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.49,0.53,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.35,0.35,0.32,0.3,0.36,0.42,0.39,0.49,0.46,0.37,0.28,0.27,0.27,0.33,0.45,0.35,0.28,0.2,0.2,0.21,0.34,0.22,0.25,0.38,0.27,0.3,0.2,0.27,0.46,0.54,0.68,0.42,1	91.6%
UTA 86, MIL 89	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.47,0.52,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.62,0.53,0.46,0.4,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.36,0.39,0.33,0.29,0.26,0.3,0.24,0.21,0.26,0.29,0.25,0.3,0.22,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.29,0.32,0.17,0.29,0.33,0.38,0.37,0.45,0.58,1	90.3%
CLE 89, MIA 92	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.53,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.47,0.43,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.47,0.45,0.44,0.4,0.42,0.37,0.32,0.36,0.39,0.31,0.33,0.46,0.31,0.23,0.2,0.27,0.27,0.24,0.26,0.31,0.41,0.26,0.36,0.19,0.11,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.11,0.2,0.27,0.45,0.37,0.55,0.59,1	90.0%