NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	87		Excitement	8.5 [168]		MVP	Eddie House (MIA): +55.4%
Miami Heat	88		Comeback	5.3 [509]		LVP	Tayshaun Prince (DET): -23.9%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Austin Daye	0.19	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0.3,0.19	-0.00	0.19	-0.01	17	53%	0.27	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Greg Monroe	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.04,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.05	0.08	0.01	6	64%	0.12	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Chris Wilcox	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.03	0.01	8	62%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tracy McGrady	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.09,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.06	0.04	-0.00	17	39%	0.05	1	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Ben Gordon	-0.04	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.12,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.04,-0.04	0.06	-0.09	0.01	16	62%	0.02	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Charlie Villanueva	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.09,0,0,0,0,0,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	10	29%	-0.08	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Will Bynum	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.08	-0.04	-0.00	5	0%	-0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tayshaun Prince	-0.24	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.15,-0.24	-0.08	-0.17	-0.00	13	29%	-0.24	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eddie House	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.14,0.14,0.24,0.24,0.55	0.55	0.09	0.46	0.00	9	75%	0.59	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.14
LeBron James	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.16,0.16,0.25,0.25,0.24,0.24	0.24	0.17	0.10	0.03	25	65%	0.37	3	-0.13	10	70%	-0.06
Juwan Howard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Jones	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	6	36%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Carlos Arroyo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	9	42%	0.00	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.00	8	28%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Joel Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	2	50%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mike Miller	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.19	-0.19	-0.05	-0.16	-0.01	12	41%	0.01	2	-0.20	5	80%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.7	2.7	27.9	15.0	25.2	1.8	33.0	129.3
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +44.1%

MIA +35.6%

DET -10.4%

DET -27.9%

MIA +8.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	MIA	NBA	DET	MIA	NBA
this game	18.2	16.5	15.5	104.8	106.0	105.7
season	16.7	16.0		106.4	109.0
opponent	15.6	15.2		102.3	110.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	15.0	15.5	19.0	24.8	18.2
MIA	17.7	15.8	16.0	16.6	16.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Will Bynum	21	21	0.19	-0.69	0.89	0.08	4	-5	9	19.2	17.8	1.43	17.6	16.2	1.39
Greg Monroe	37	36	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	0.07	-4	3	-7	17.6	18.6	-1.04	16.4	16.6	-0.15
Austin Daye	72	72	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.27	2	-3	5	18.3	17.0	1.35	16.7	15.4	1.34
Charlie Villanueva	37	37	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.10	-5	4	-9	19.6	17.0	2.52	16.8	16.3	0.51
Ben Gordon	68	69	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.53	7	-8	15	17.2	22.6	-5.41	16.6	16.1	0.47
Chris Wilcox	46	47	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.54	3	-4	7	18.6	17.6	1.04	16.6	16.4	0.15
Tracy McGrady	68	68	-0.69	0.19	-0.87	-0.57	-4	3	-7	17.5	21.0	-3.46	16.0	18.8	-2.77
Tayshaun Prince	66	65	-0.71	0.21	-0.92	-0.48	-8	7	-15	18.5	16.9	1.62	16.3	17.4	-1.17

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eddie House	48	47	0.76	-0.26	1.02	0.55	7	-6	13	15.7	17.6	-1.90	18.9	17.2	1.67
Joel Anthony	51	52	0.65	-0.15	0.81	0.57	3	-2	5	16.4	16.7	-0.36	18.9	16.9	1.97
LeBron James	75	75	0.55	-0.05	0.61	0.44	4	-3	7	16.7	14.6	2.11	18.6	13.9	4.75
James Jones	55	56	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.59	-2	3	-5	15.7	18.2	-2.54	17.6	19.3	-1.62
Mike Miller	75	72	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.44	0	1	-1	16.4	18.1	-1.76	17.9	20.1	-2.22
Juwan Howard	25	25	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	-0.02	0	1	-1	17.8	16.0	1.82	18.9	17.9	1.02
Carlos Arroyo	5	5	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	-0.00	-2	3	-5	24.2	16.0	8.16	13.6	18.5	-4.86
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	32	31	-0.15	0.65	-0.81	-0.09	-2	3	-5	16.7	16.4	0.36	16.9	18.9	-1.97
Mario Chalmers	49	52	-0.20	0.70	-0.90	-0.11	-3	4	-7	16.8	16.1	0.65	17.9	18.6	-0.66

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.52,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.49,0.53,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.35,0.35,0.32,0.3,0.36,0.42,0.39,0.49,0.46,0.37,0.28,0.27,0.27,0.33,0.45,0.35,0.28,0.2,0.2,0.21,0.34,0.22,0.25,0.38,0.27,0.3,0.2,0.27,0.46,0.54,0.68,0.42,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 94, IND 96	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.5,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.35,0.37,0.37,0.42,0.39,0.31,0.21,0.3,0.33,0.29,0.23,0.28,0.36,0.27,0.38,0.29,0.21,0.18,0.23,0.15,0.19,0.15,0.34,0.2,0.15,0.11,0.35,0.22,0.53,0.54,0.67,0.28,1	91.6%
ATL 75, ORL 79	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.5,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.39,0.4,0.47,0.49,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.31,0.3,0.35,0.33,0.28,0.3,0.36,0.42,0.41,0.46,0.37,0.38,0.4,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.42,0.38,0.31,0.18,0.23,0.22,0.42,0.46,0.38,0.38,0.33,0.36,0.29,0.47,0.55,0.45,0.57,0.58,1	91.3%
UTA 86, MIL 89	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.47,0.52,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.62,0.53,0.46,0.4,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.36,0.39,0.33,0.29,0.26,0.3,0.24,0.21,0.26,0.29,0.25,0.3,0.22,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.29,0.32,0.17,0.29,0.33,0.38,0.37,0.45,0.58,1	91.0%