NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Utah Jazz	82		Excitement	4.8 [832]		MVP	Karl Malone (UTA): +16.4%
San Antonio Spurs	73		Comeback	1.0 [515]		LVP	Jaren Jackson (SAS): -15.4%

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Karl Malone	0.16	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.1,0.13,0.11,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.16	0.08	0.09	0.01	28	61%	0.26	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Greg Foster	0.06	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.09	-0.02	0.01	9	72%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bryon Russell	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03	0.00	0.01	-0.02	7	60%	0.06	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.00
Greg Ostertag	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.02	0.00	0	100%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.03
Antoine Carr	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	4	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Hornacek	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.00	3	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Chris Morris	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Stockton	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	7	50%	0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Howard Eisley	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.01	-0.01	4	25%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Shandon Anderson	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	3	37%	-0.02	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Vinny Del Negro	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.00	0.00	9	60%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Avery Johnson	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.05	-0.01	0.02	6	76%	0.04	1	-0.02	5	60%	-0.01
Brad Lohaus	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chuck Person	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	4	37%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Will Perdue	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	4	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
David Robinson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	13	44%	-0.05	1	-0.02	8	62%	-0.03
Tim Duncan	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	18	49%	-0.03	2	-0.07	9	67%	-0.03
Jaren Jackson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.14	-0.04	-0.02	15	25%	-0.14	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.7	2.0	27.4	17.0	25.1	2.6	34.2	131.0
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

UTA +51.9%

UTA +2.4%

SAS -2.1%

SAS -3.9%

UTA +1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	UTA	SAS	NBA	UTA	SAS	NBA
this game	18.6	18.1	15.6	105.1	92.4	102.5
season	15.9	15.9		108.1	100.9
opponent	15.9	15.9		97.2	102.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
UTA	18.9	19.5	17.8	18.0	18.6
SAS	16.3	16.5	22.2	18.0	18.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bryon Russell	73	73	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.18	11	-2	13	18.7	17.0	1.67	18.3	16.5	1.76
Jeff Hornacek	55	57	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.19	10	-1	11	18.9	17.7	1.23	18.4	17.5	0.93
John Stockton	57	56	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.15	10	-1	11	18.0	20.2	-2.23	18.3	17.7	0.61
Karl Malone	67	67	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.20	5	4	1	18.9	16.7	2.14	18.1	18.2	-0.15
Antoine Carr	25	24	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.08	7	2	5	16.8	19.4	-2.66	15.7	19.2	-3.41
Greg Foster	38	40	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.07	4	5	-1	19.7	17.5	2.24	20.0	16.2	3.79
Greg Ostertag	26	27	0.17	0.33	-0.15	0.12	2	7	-5	17.8	18.9	-1.08	17.5	18.4	-0.92
Howard Eisley	21	23	0.05	0.45	-0.39	0.08	-1	10	-11	20.2	18.0	2.23	17.7	18.3	-0.61
Shandon Anderson	23	22	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.05	-1	10	-11	17.7	18.9	-1.23	17.5	18.4	-0.93
Chris Morris	5	6	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	0.06	-2	11	-13	17.0	18.7	-1.67	16.5	18.3	-1.76

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chuck Person	37	37	0.04	-0.54	0.57	-0.14	6	-15	21	17.0	19.1	-2.12	21.4	16.0	5.30
Brad Lohaus	1	1	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.00	0	-9	9	9.0	18.2	-9.24	5.0	18.7	-13.74
Will Perdue	36	36	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.05	-8	-1	-7	19.5	17.0	2.47	17.3	19.6	-2.34
Vinny Del Negro	50	49	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.22	-5	-4	-1	17.4	19.4	-2.09	18.4	18.8	-0.31
Jaren Jackson	68	67	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.22	-7	-2	-5	18.6	15.2	3.42	17.8	23.0	-5.16
Avery Johnson	66	65	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.20	-8	-1	-7	17.8	19.7	-1.87	18.8	17.2	1.69
Tim Duncan	71	68	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.14	-11	2	-13	18.0	19.2	-1.25	18.8	17.2	1.56
David Robinson	66	67	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.21	-12	3	-15	18.7	15.2	3.47	18.2	20.5	-2.31

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.36,0.37,0.39,0.39,0.35,0.39,0.45,0.49,0.43,0.4,0.38,0.36,0.29,0.26,0.24,0.27,0.26,0.26,0.33,0.33,0.42,0.37,0.31,0.31,0.24,0.29,0.23,0.15,0.19,0.15,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.12,0.14,0.27,0.17,0.06,0.09,0.14,0.15,0.06,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 73, MIL 65	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.43,0.39,0.4,0.45,0.42,0.35,0.38,0.34,0.32,0.27,0.24,0.28,0.32,0.29,0.31,0.28,0.27,0.3,0.26,0.36,0.25,0.24,0.21,0.26,0.2,0.16,0.17,0.12,0.11,0.13,0.11,0.1,0.11,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.09,0.1,0.07,0.06,0.05,0	94.5%
IND 83, TOR 77	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.44,0.4,0.43,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.42,0.37,0.34,0.38,0.31,0.29,0.27,0.2,0.27,0.29,0.3,0.39,0.41,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.33,0.27,0.21,0.17,0.14,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.12,0.17,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.06,0.14,0.19,0.06,0.02,0	93.9%
DET 97, PHI 87	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.41,0.36,0.39,0.46,0.4,0.38,0.37,0.36,0.4,0.31,0.4,0.37,0.32,0.32,0.34,0.29,0.36,0.36,0.3,0.37,0.34,0.33,0.3,0.3,0.24,0.26,0.22,0.18,0.17,0.13,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.13,0.15,0.04,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	93.5%