NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	87		Excitement	6.0 [576]		MVP	Glen Rice (CHH): +36.5%
Charlotte Hornets	97		Comeback	4.1 [342]		LVP	Anthony Mason (CHH): -16.3%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Steven Smith	0.23	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.24,0.29,0.29,0.24,0.29,0.24,0.19,0.23,0.23	0.20	0.04	0.02	22	70%	0.23	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.01
Anthony Miller	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Drew Barry	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chucky Brown	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Eldridge Recasner	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	6	33%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dikembe Mutombo	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	7	56%	0.04	3	-0.12	4	50%	-0.03
Christian Laettner	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.05	-0.07	-0.01	12	37%	-0.10	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Tyrone Corbin	-0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.02	-0.01	5	0%	-0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Alan Henderson	-0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.11	-0.03	-0.01	7	39%	-0.06	3	-0.07	4	25%	-0.05
Mookie Blaylock	-0.13	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.05	-0.09	-0.01	16	53%	-0.02	4	-0.12	4	0%	-0.10

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Glen Rice	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.24,0.24,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.36,0.36,0.38,0.36,0.36	0.36	0.18	0.16	-0.02	19	77%	0.37	2	-0.01	6	50%	-0.02
Dell Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.01	0.00	6	69%	0.07	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
J.R. Reid	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.03	0.00	4	82%	0.10	1	-0.04	3	100%	0.01
Bobby Phills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.02	0.02	8	53%	0.02	2	-0.04	1	0%	0.00
B.J. Armstrong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
David Wesley	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.01	10	55%	0.01	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Vlade Divac	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	11	50%	0.01	3	-0.08	2	0%	-0.03
Anthony Mason	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.06	-0.09	0.01	8	56%	-0.01	4	-0.15	2	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.4	2.5	30.3	16.7	29.1	2.5	32.1	136.6
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHH +40.7%

CHH +14.8%

ATL -8.4%

ATL -5.9%

CHH +8.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	CHH	NBA	ATL	CHH	NBA
this game	17.0	16.1	15.6	100.0	111.5	102.5
season	16.1	15.7		105.3	104.0
opponent	15.9	16.0		102.6	101.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	17.7	15.8	15.7	19.2	17.0
CHH	15.7	16.2	14.3	18.7	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chucky Brown	13	14	0.13	-0.63	0.76	-0.05	6	-16	22	15.6	17.2	-1.61	19.1	15.5	3.52
Drew Barry	1	0	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-10	10	4.0	17.1	-13.14	0.0	16.1	-16.11
Anthony Miller	6	6	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.04	1	-11	12	10.8	17.4	-6.61	15.5	16.2	-0.66
Eldridge Recasner	38	37	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.06	-5	-5	0	16.7	17.2	-0.49	18.2	14.6	3.56
Tyrone Corbin	38	38	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.05	-6	-4	-2	17.3	16.8	0.53	14.1	17.7	-3.52
Alan Henderson	49	50	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.15	-3	-7	4	17.2	16.8	0.40	15.1	17.5	-2.48
Christian Laettner	50	49	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.09	-8	-2	-6	16.5	17.6	-1.10	17.1	14.8	2.35
Mookie Blaylock	85	85	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.22	-9	-1	-8	16.8	25.5	-8.71	15.8	28.0	-12.16
Steven Smith	80	81	-0.57	0.07	-0.63	-0.21	-12	2	-14	17.4	12.0	5.43	16.0	18.3	-2.38
Dikembe Mutombo	75	75	-0.57	0.07	-0.65	-0.16	-14	4	-18	17.8	11.7	6.17	16.1	16.0	0.13

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
David Wesley	64	64	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.17	16	-6	22	15.1	18.9	-3.80	17.7	14.9	2.88
Vlade Divac	75	74	0.61	-0.11	0.71	0.17	15	-5	20	16.2	15.3	0.91	17.8	12.4	5.41
Glen Rice	74	74	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.27	7	3	4	16.5	14.0	2.49	17.3	15.1	2.25
Bobby Phills	64	63	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.16	4	6	-2	16.3	15.7	0.63	17.4	16.0	1.42
Anthony Mason	75	76	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.26	0	10	-10	16.4	14.3	2.07	16.8	18.5	-1.68
Dell Curry	43	43	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.02	6	4	2	15.4	16.8	-1.33	15.2	18.7	-3.52
J.R. Reid	24	24	0.13	0.37	-0.23	-0.01	5	5	0	14.8	16.6	-1.77	15.2	17.7	-2.52
B.J. Armstrong	16	17	-0.09	0.59	-0.69	-0.01	-3	13	-16	19.6	15.3	4.22	15.7	17.3	-1.59

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.49,0.42,0.35,0.34,0.35,0.31,0.26,0.32,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.25,0.31,0.31,0.28,0.25,0.24,0.26,0.35,0.36,0.5,0.58,0.63,0.51,0.61,0.67,0.77,0.8,0.78,0.77,0.74,0.68,0.77,0.7,0.66,0.74,0.54,0.59,0.65,0.73,0.8,0.85,0.99,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 96, NYK 98	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.52,0.43,0.44,0.39,0.36,0.32,0.3,0.28,0.31,0.3,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.36,0.31,0.24,0.28,0.34,0.31,0.31,0.36,0.46,0.49,0.4,0.52,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.71,0.77,0.72,0.7,0.71,0.64,0.62,0.7,0.75,0.84,0.68,0.74,0.65,0.78,0.81,0.84,0.84,0.74,1	92.3%
IND 83, NYK 97	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.42,0.44,0.38,0.34,0.31,0.27,0.24,0.22,0.19,0.21,0.27,0.29,0.27,0.26,0.28,0.23,0.29,0.28,0.36,0.41,0.5,0.48,0.55,0.64,0.67,0.76,0.71,0.68,0.68,0.82,0.84,0.85,0.74,0.7,0.67,0.62,0.68,0.74,0.81,0.9,0.93,0.99,1,1,1	91.7%
PHX 104, IND 117	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.37,0.37,0.43,0.45,0.38,0.34,0.28,0.26,0.25,0.33,0.33,0.3,0.27,0.31,0.42,0.46,0.54,0.51,0.6,0.72,0.67,0.69,0.7,0.82,0.85,0.78,0.77,0.74,0.78,0.81,0.87,0.82,0.83,0.77,0.74,0.65,0.78,0.76,0.85,1,1,1	91.6%