NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	125		Excitement	7.1 [382]		MVP	Matt Maloney (HOU): +32.3%
Minnesota Timberwolves	120		Comeback	1.8 [434]		LVP	Stephon Marbury (MIN): -24.8%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Matt Maloney	0.32	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.24,0.24,0.3,0.3,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32	0.24	0.08	0.00	11	104%	0.37	1	-0.05	3	67%	-0.01
Eddie Johnson	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.22,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.06	0.13	-0.02	9	67%	0.22	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mario Elie	0.17	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.12,0.16,0.17	0.15	0.06	0.05	8	91%	0.20	1	-0.04	7	71%	-0.03
Hakeem Olajuwon	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.07	0.02	0.03	15	59%	0.08	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Sedale Threatt	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	4	62%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Othella Harrington	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charles Barkley	-0.00	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,0	0.02	0.02	0.05	9	69%	0.07	3	-0.07	11	82%	0.01
Clyde Drexler	-0.06	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	0.05	-0.02	0.09	11	63%	0.02	2	-0.07	5	80%	0.01
Kevin Willis	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.07	-0.03	0.00	6	36%	-0.04	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.02

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dean Garrett	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.12	0.06	0.03	17	67%	0.15	0	0.00	5	80%	0.01
James Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.09	0.02	-0.00	7	79%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sam Mitchell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.03,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.05	0.05	0.00	6	69%	0.10	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Doug West	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.08	-0.01	0.03	8	73%	0.04	0	0.00	6	100%	0.03
Tom Gugliotta	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.03	0.03	0.02	-0.01	-0.02	19	61%	0.15	4	-0.12	6	67%	-0.01
Kevin Garnett	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	16	49%	-0.03	1	-0.00	3	100%	0.02
Terry Porter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	2	0%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Stephon Marbury	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.21,-0.24,-0.24,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25	-0.25	-0.15	-0.11	-0.01	21	32%	-0.20	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	2.4	26.1	15.7	30.3	1.7	37.0	137.2
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +91.3%

MIN -8.4%

MIN -14.2%

MIN -14.6%

MIN -4.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	MIN	NBA	HOU	MIN	NBA
this game	14.7	15.8	15.6	130.2	129.0	104.4
season	15.5	15.5		107.2	103.3
opponent	15.5	15.4		105.3	103.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	15.2	14.9	14.5	14.1	14.7
MIN	16.1	17.1	14.9	15.2	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Hakeem Olajuwon	75	73	0.95	-0.45	1.40	0.28	23	-18	41	14.9	14.0	0.82	16.5	13.3	3.19
Mario Elie	87	84	0.62	-0.12	0.75	0.30	11	-6	17	14.6	15.6	-0.96	15.7	16.9	-1.20
Matt Maloney	81	79	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.31	10	-5	15	14.3	16.8	-2.50	14.8	21.2	-6.37
Clyde Drexler	65	64	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.17	11	-6	17	14.0	16.2	-2.27	15.1	17.4	-2.29
Charles Barkley	73	71	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.18	-1	6	-7	14.0	16.8	-2.76	14.5	19.9	-5.31
Othella Harrington	2	1	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	-0.02	0	5	-5	7.0	14.9	-7.85	16.0	15.8	0.20
Kevin Willis	42	41	-0.08	0.58	-0.67	0.27	-12	17	-29	15.9	13.8	2.12	16.8	15.1	1.70
Sedale Threatt	15	14	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.05	-5	10	-15	16.8	14.3	2.50	21.2	14.8	6.37
Eddie Johnson	40	38	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	0.23	-12	17	-29	16.1	13.7	2.38	17.3	14.8	2.46

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Robinson	22	24	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.26	8	-13	21	16.4	15.6	0.73	14.1	14.9	-0.75
Doug West	60	61	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.00	-1	-4	3	15.1	17.2	-2.08	14.5	15.0	-0.45
Tom Gugliotta	81	84	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.17	-3	-2	-1	15.2	19.9	-4.72	14.2	17.8	-3.60
Sam Mitchell	36	36	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.16	-4	-1	-3	17.2	14.9	2.22	16.1	13.8	2.23
Dean Garrett	88	90	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.27	-2	-3	1	15.3	25.0	-9.72	14.7	15.0	-0.33
Terry Porter	29	29	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.18	-7	2	-9	19.7	14.0	5.64	16.4	13.9	2.52
Stephon Marbury	75	79	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.30	-8	3	-11	14.7	20.3	-5.54	14.2	17.2	-3.02
Kevin Garnett	74	77	-0.65	0.15	-0.80	-0.41	-8	3	-11	16.4	13.4	3.06	14.7	14.5	0.27

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.53,0.49,0.43,0.37,0.35,0.36,0.38,0.43,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.5,0.42,0.44,0.47,0.39,0.42,0.36,0.32,0.5,0.43,0.4,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.41,0.31,0.34,0.4,0.4,0.5,0.57,0.57,0.43,0.32,0.25,0.11,0.17,0.1,0.1,0.03,0.09,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 96, MIL 89	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.37,0.38,0.37,0.44,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.43,0.5,0.43,0.31,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.26,0.29,0.35,0.3,0.29,0.36,0.42,0.52,0.53,0.47,0.42,0.21,0.35,0.22,0.1,0.04,0.02,0.08,0	93.7%
SAS 84, MIA 77	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.5,0.47,0.38,0.37,0.39,0.4,0.47,0.42,0.48,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.34,0.36,0.33,0.35,0.25,0.33,0.39,0.39,0.45,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.57,0.53,0.48,0.32,0.22,0.19,0.17,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.02,0	93.6%
CHA 108, ORL 94	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.4,0.41,0.37,0.34,0.33,0.39,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.46,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.41,0.42,0.42,0.33,0.49,0.38,0.4,0.47,0.55,0.48,0.36,0.38,0.34,0.41,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.48,0.43,0.34,0.42,0.36,0.24,0.1,0.03,0.03,0,0,0	93.1%