NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	91		Excitement	5.1 [813]		MVP	JJ Redick (PHI): +13.0%
Philadelphia 76ers	104		Comeback	1.4 [1112]		LVP	Goran Dragic (MIA): -14.2%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bam Adebayo	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	2	67%	0.03	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.02
Justise Winslow	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.01	9	55%	0.02	1	-0.01	4	100%	0.02
Tyler Johnson	0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.10	-0.02	0.08	11	70%	0.00	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Wayne Ellington	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.03	8	56%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Rodney McGruder	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kelly Olynyk	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.04	16	49%	0.00	1	-0.03	5	60%	-0.01
Josh Richardson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Johnson	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	5	40%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Hassan Whiteside	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.08	0.00	-0.03	4	17%	-0.04	1	-0.01	4	50%	-0.01
Dwyane Wade	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.09	-0.02	-0.04	15	32%	-0.05	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.01
Goran Dragic	-0.14	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.10	-0.04	0.00	16	44%	-0.01	5	-0.13	2	50%	-0.01

Philadelphia 76ers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
JJ Redick	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.15	0.03	0.05	13	75%	0.16	2	-0.03	10	100%	0.05
Robert Covington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.01	-0.01	10	50%	0.04	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
T.J. McConnell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	3	57%	0.03	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Amir Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.05	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Joel Embiid	0,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	-0.01	14	58%	0.07	4	-0.06	5	60%	-0.02
Ersan Ilyasova	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	-0.00	-0.04	5	42%	0.00	1	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Ben Simmons	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	10	52%	0.05	3	-0.08	7	86%	0.01
Marco Belinelli	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	0.01	12	39%	-0.05	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Justin Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dario Saric	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.02	9	36%	-0.05	2	-0.02	4	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.2	3.4	28.2	15.8	33.7	2.8	37.3	151.4
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

PHI +25.0%

PHI +12.4%

PHI +9.9%

PHI +3.2%

MIA -0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	PHI	NBA	MIA	PHI	NBA
this game	14.7	14.4	14.7	92.9	104.0	107.5
season	15.1	13.9		105.4	108.1
opponent	14.7	14.6		103.8	105.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	13.8	14.8	16.1	14.1	14.7
PHI	12.9	14.6	13.3	17.2	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Justise Winslow	53	54	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.07	5	-18	23	14.8	14.6	0.22	13.8	15.1	-1.32
Dwyane Wade	62	65	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.18	6	-19	25	14.0	15.8	-1.83	14.8	13.6	1.22
Kelly Olynyk	74	77	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.24	3	-16	19	14.5	15.1	-0.60	14.8	13.3	1.51
Rodney McGruder	13	13	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	0.02	-6	-7	1	16.2	14.4	1.71	12.7	14.7	-1.99
Bam Adebayo	37	35	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	0.11	-11	-2	-9	16.1	13.8	2.26	11.3	16.1	-4.82
Tyler Johnson	36	38	-0.28	-0.23	-0.05	-0.16	-4	-9	5	14.4	14.8	-0.36	15.3	13.9	1.49
Wayne Ellington	44	44	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	0.04	-12	-1	-11	14.8	14.5	0.30	13.3	15.3	-2.05
James Johnson	63	64	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.16	-6	-7	1	14.1	15.6	-1.49	16.0	11.7	4.26
Hassan Whiteside	21	23	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	0.04	-13	0	-13	14.2	14.8	-0.55	13.5	14.7	-1.22
Goran Dragic	71	71	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.09	-10	-3	-7	14.8	14.4	0.42	15.3	12.2	3.17
Josh Richardson	16	16	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	0.09	-17	4	-21	15.4	14.5	0.84	13.4	14.6	-1.17

Philadelphia 76ers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
JJ Redick	68	65	0.62	-0.12	0.73	-0.06	23	-10	33	13.8	15.8	-2.00	15.4	13.3	2.07
Joel Embiid	63	62	0.58	-0.08	0.66	-0.04	21	-8	29	12.9	17.1	-4.18	15.3	13.6	1.77
Ersan Ilyasova	66	64	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.08	12	1	11	13.9	15.4	-1.41	15.1	13.9	1.21
Ben Simmons	71	71	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.06	9	4	5	15.3	12.2	3.12	14.1	16.1	-1.98
Robert Covington	68	68	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.16	3	10	-7	15.4	12.3	3.15	14.4	15.3	-0.95
Dario Saric	47	46	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.10	4	9	-5	15.5	13.4	2.10	14.0	15.3	-1.31
T.J. McConnell	29	27	0.17	0.33	-0.15	0.06	4	9	-5	12.2	15.3	-3.12	16.1	14.1	1.98
Marco Belinelli	62	62	0.14	0.36	-0.23	0.08	2	11	-9	14.7	13.9	0.85	14.1	15.6	-1.44
Justin Anderson	10	9	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.02	0	13	-13	13.0	14.6	-1.58	15.1	14.6	0.48
Amir Johnson	16	16	-0.25	0.75	-1.00	0.13	-13	26	-39	17.3	13.9	3.44	12.7	15.1	-2.37

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.56,0.6,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.45,0.49,0.54,0.5,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.48,0.54,0.7,0.76,0.7,0.84,0.8,0.86,0.94,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.98,0.99,0.96,0.92,0.94,0.95,0.99,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 72, CHI 88	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.56,0.57,0.61,0.57,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.39,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.64,0.75,0.76,0.85,0.86,0.9,0.96,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.4%
MIL 71, ATL 94	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.47,0.46,0.5,0.58,0.59,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.54,0.63,0.7,0.64,0.64,0.79,0.85,0.87,0.91,0.91,0.91,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.5%
MIA 86, MEM 102	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.56,0.57,0.53,0.58,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.52,0.44,0.41,0.39,0.49,0.59,0.5,0.54,0.63,0.67,0.7,0.73,0.79,0.75,0.78,0.85,0.88,0.91,0.96,0.97,0.94,0.99,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.4%