NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Cleveland Cavaliers	96		Excitement	9.8 [82]		MVP	J.R. Smith (CLE): +46.0%
Chicago Bulls	99		Comeback	2.4 [514]		LVP	Kyrie Irving (CLE): -28.1%

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
J.R. Smith	0.46	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.28,0.17,0.46	0.12	0.34	-0.00	9	78%	0.46	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matthew Dellavedova	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.07	0.03	0.00	4	100%	0.14	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.04
Tristan Thompson	0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.04	0.04	-0.00	8	56%	0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.03
James Jones	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.02	0.00	5	67%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Timofey Mozgov	0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	-0.00	9	44%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Iman Shumpert	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	9	44%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
LeBron James	-0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.1,-0.15,-0.11,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.19,-0.19,-0.24,-0.2,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.1	-0.13	0.02	-0.01	25	44%	0.12	7	-0.21	11	91%	0.12
Kyrie Irving	-0.28	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.18,-0.18,-0.28,-0.28	-0.06	-0.20	0.02	13	39%	-0.20	2	-0.08	2	100%	0.01

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jimmy Butler	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.12,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.34	0.34	0.04	0.28	-0.01	17	50%	0.34	0	0.00	6	83%	0.03
Derrick Rose	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.02,0.1,0.05,-0.04,0.25	0.25	-0.02	0.26	-0.00	26	48%	0.35	3	-0.10	10	90%	0.02
Taj Gibson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.16	0.16	0.07	0.10	0.00	4	75%	0.16	0	0.00	4	75%	0.04
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.11	0.02	-0.01	12	64%	0.13	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Nikola Mirotic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	-0.02	0.00	8	55%	0.03	1	-0.03	6	83%	-0.00
Kirk Hinrich	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pau Gasol	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	7	43%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Snell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Brooks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.10	-0.02	-0.03	7	14%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Joakim Noah	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.11	-0.01	0.02	8	22%	-0.10	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.6	3.0	30.2	15.7	34.2	3.3	39.1	149.2
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +13.6%

CHI +1.3%

CHI +48.5%

CLE -10.8%

CLE -2.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CLE	CHI	NBA	CLE	CHI	NBA
this game	16.1	15.0	15.1	103.2	107.6	104.2
season	15.9	15.5		108.7	105.4
opponent	15.2	14.9		102.5	104.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CLE	15.2	14.5	18.7	16.2	16.1
CHI	15.4	15.5	14.9	14.3	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Timofey Mozgov	43	44	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.04	2	-5	7	16.4	15.8	0.64	15.8	14.4	1.42
Matthew Dellavedova	34	32	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.10	1	-4	5	14.5	17.0	-2.52	14.4	15.4	-0.96
Iman Shumpert	70	68	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.24	-1	-2	1	16.9	13.6	3.31	15.7	13.0	2.69
Tristan Thompson	79	77	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.33	1	-4	5	16.5	14.1	2.38	14.8	16.0	-1.16
James Jones	29	30	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.12	-7	4	-11	14.1	17.0	-2.85	15.3	14.9	0.40
LeBron James	84	82	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.37	0	-3	3	16.4	13.2	3.18	15.1	14.4	0.71
J.R. Smith	51	52	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.44	-4	1	-5	15.4	17.0	-1.56	14.7	15.5	-0.78
Kyrie Irving	75	75	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	-0.41	-7	4	-11	16.4	14.9	1.43	14.5	17.5	-3.06

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nikola Mirotic	43	45	1.08	-0.58	1.65	0.52	19	-16	35	15.0	15.0	-0.02	15.9	16.2	-0.32
Derrick Rose	74	75	0.69	-0.19	0.89	0.43	9	-6	15	14.7	16.6	-1.89	16.5	14.4	2.12
Taj Gibson	42	44	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.46	-1	4	-5	15.1	15.0	0.12	16.5	15.8	0.68
Mike Dunleavy	74	74	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.25	3	0	3	14.9	15.4	-0.51	16.4	14.9	1.51
Jimmy Butler	84	85	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.34	-2	5	-7	15.0	14.9	0.17	16.4	13.0	3.39
Tony Snell	1	1	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.06	0	3	-3	2.0	15.2	-13.18	0.0	16.3	-16.27
Kirk Hinrich	40	39	0.06	0.44	-0.39	0.11	-2	5	-7	15.2	14.9	0.25	14.9	16.9	-1.98
Joakim Noah	41	40	-0.06	0.56	-0.63	-0.00	-2	5	-7	15.9	14.4	1.53	16.4	15.8	0.58
Pau Gasol	43	44	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	-0.09	-3	6	-9	14.5	15.5	-1.02	15.9	16.3	-0.36
Aaron Brooks	18	18	-0.19	0.69	-0.89	-0.02	-6	9	-15	16.6	14.7	1.89	14.4	16.5	-2.12

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.49,0.57,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.32,0.35,0.38,0.38,0.41,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.51,0.46,0.58,0.44,0.49,0.42,0.49,0.55,0.52,0.36,0.32,0.32,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.45,0.54,0.54,0.57,0.58,0.63,0.74,0.59,0.78,0.75,0.79,0.55,0.72,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 89, NOK 95	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.52,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.4,0.38,0.44,0.4,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.46,0.42,0.5,0.46,0.55,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.35,0.27,0.37,0.39,0.36,0.46,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.58,0.69,0.71,0.83,0.81,0.79,0.53,0.92,1	92.1%
DAL 101, POR 104	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.43,0.39,0.41,0.39,0.41,0.45,0.47,0.44,0.43,0.36,0.34,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.44,0.41,0.54,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.43,0.4,0.36,0.38,0.36,0.26,0.38,0.38,0.41,0.48,0.52,0.58,0.7,0.62,0.71,0.68,0.69,0.76,0.72,0.75,0.78,0.69,0.92,1	91.6%
CHA 89, ORL 96	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.5,0.5,0.55,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.36,0.35,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.44,0.46,0.53,0.47,0.48,0.58,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.34,0.4,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.46,0.45,0.32,0.5,0.57,0.57,0.52,0.63,0.64,0.66,0.83,0.81,0.84,0.85,0.96,1	91.5%